Realized P&L
-$824
Unrealized P&L
+$185
Hit rate
64.9%
Resolved
1,328
Trades
16,279
lifetime
Volume
$159.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$1.53K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-23
last 10-27 21:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 129 days
Categories
Politics
60% 64% +$350
Other
33% 60% -$497
Tech
3% 58% -$699
Sports
3% 48% -$30
Crypto
1% 48% +$36
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$16
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
53 active days in 12wk • peak 156 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +315 $249 82¢ $260 +$11 08-10 19:09
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 No +138 $25 96¢ $133 +$107 08-27 06:26
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 No +129 $121 97¢ $125 +$4 09-27 11:11
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +109 $100 96¢ $105 +$5 06-27 19:23
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 No +114 $59 88¢ $99 +$40 08-12 23:29
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +112 $91 86¢ $97 +$6 08-05 00:30
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +85 $69 92¢ $77 +$9 07-30 19:26
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +135 $45 54¢ $73 +$28 08-03 21:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +73 $17 90¢ $65 +$49 08-07 12:16
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +66 $63 98¢ $64 +$2 08-13 09:40
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +54 $29 84¢ $45 +$16 07-15 01:37
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +46 $46 94¢ $44 -$2 10-05 15:21
will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635 No +35 $30 88¢ $30 +$0 07-20 21:33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +153 -$3 18¢ $27 +$30 08-03 12:05
iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 Yes +91 $20 26¢ $23 +$3 08-05 00:49
Anduril IPO before 2027? No +23 $21 98¢ $23 +$2 06-22 02:28
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +31 $20 70¢ $22 +$2 08-04 00:57
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No +21 $20 95¢ $20 $0 07-25 23:50
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 Yes +158 $67 12¢ $20 -$47 08-04 19:44
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No +20 $14 97¢ $20 +$5 07-07 03:09
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +47 $15 36¢ $17 +$2 10-27 18:34
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +18 $3 94¢ $17 +$13 08-05 23:46
will a us iran deal in 2026 include surrender of iranian enriched uranium 20260623023201640 Yes +205 $32 8¢ $16 -$16 07-26 22:25
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No +17 $15 95¢ $16 +$2 07-02 16:19
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +17 $15 94¢ $16 +$1 07-18 02:40
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? No +17 $15 92¢ $15 +$1 07-21 07:11
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No +16 $7 92¢ $15 +$7 06-18 15:25
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +15 $10 96¢ $14 +$4 07-25 17:03
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No +15 $10 96¢ $14 +$4 06-05 20:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +120 $117 12¢ $14 -$103 07-11 22:46