Realized P&L (90d)
+$1
Unrealized P&L
+$1
Hit rate
90.8%
Resolved (90d)
30
Trades (90d)
39
575 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$255
$2.14K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$389
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-10 16:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 93 days
Categories
Other
45% 71% +$0
Politics
39% 77% +$27
Tech
12% 86% +$22
Sports
3% 58% -$2
Crypto
1% 88% +$5
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
14 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +251 $205 80¢ $202 -$3 10-04 01:14
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +45 $40 90¢ $41 +$1 08-17 16:19
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +33 $30 98¢ $33 +$3 09-21 14:46
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +31 $23 84¢ $26 +$3 09-21 14:46
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +17 $13 94¢ $16 +$3 06-03 15:12
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No +37 $18 26¢ $10 -$8 09-21 14:49
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No +9 $8 94¢ $8 +$0 07-09 16:13
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +7 $6 98¢ $7 +$1 07-02 13:38
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -6 -$6 98¢ $-6 $0 06-15 21:58
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 97¢ $6 +$1 06-01 15:58
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +6 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 06-01 15:52
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 06-01 15:57
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 07-09 16:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 07-07 15:11
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +5 $5 95¢ $5 +$0 06-01 15:53
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +2 $2 97¢ $2 +$0 06-01 15:56
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +2 $1 90¢ $2 +$1 06-01 15:56
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +2 $2 66¢ $2 $0 09-25 05:09
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +1 $1 92¢ $1 +$0 06-01 15:56
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -11 -$2 11¢ $-1 +$1 06-15 22:04
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 +$0 05-29 02:07
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No +6 $1 5¢ $0 -$1 09-29 13:19