Realized P&L (90d)
-$116
Unrealized P&L
-$74
Hit rate
11.2%
Resolved (90d)
63
Trades (90d)
80
3,462 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$737
$105.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$30
Open exposure
$81
27 positions
First seen
2026-04-18
last 09-12 07:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 130 days
Categories
Sports
45% 45% -$1,646
Politics
29% 31% -$1,442
Other
25% 39% -$875
Crypto
1% 20% -$160
Tech
0% 50% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
20 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -40 -$38 90¢ $-35 +$3 07-30 20:10
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -132 -$7 12¢ $-16 -$8 05-04 03:55
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +68 $12 17¢ $11 -$1 09-12 06:59
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No -8 -$5 68¢ $-5 $0 05-03 17:35
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -5 -$4 98¢ $-5 $0 05-03 14:23
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -114 -$6 4¢ $-4 +$2 05-17 11:54
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes -45 -$4 3¢ $-1 +$3 05-16 22:30
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes -71 -$5 2¢ $-1 +$4 05-03 14:23
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Yes -83 -$5 1¢ $-1 +$4 05-03 14:24
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 $0 05-03 13:50
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +0 $3 98¢ $0 -$3 07-15 04:02
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +0 $1 98¢ $0 -$1 06-22 03:28
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 05-03 14:20
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No +0 $5 98¢ $0 -$5 06-09 12:14
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 No +0 $2 90¢ $0 -$2 08-10 09:36
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026 No +0 $2 98¢ $0 -$2 06-27 15:16
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 95¢ $0 $0 08-04 14:21
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No +0 $2 94¢ $0 -$2 06-07 18:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +0 $2 7¢ $0 -$2 07-29 23:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +0 $41 11¢ $0 -$41 09-03 07:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +0 $3 10¢ $0 -$3 08-10 14:11
will base launch a token by june 30 2027 Yes +0 $14 14¢ $0 -$14 07-15 09:33
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes -0 $0 0¢ $-0 +$0 05-03 14:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $3 11¢ $0 -$3 09-04 04:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +0 $6 3¢ $0 -$6 08-04 23:36
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +0 -$3 3¢ $0 +$3 05-22 13:31
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +0 -$2 4¢ $0 +$2 05-05 11:50