Daring-Hermit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

Trades

530

lifetime

Volume

$46.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 05-23 08:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

85% — —

Other

14% 67% +$7

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$6.5K	4,250	4,450	-200	open	—	05-23 08:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	12	$6.4K	3,549	3,549	+0	open	—	04-02 09:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	31	$4.6K	4,809	4,809	+0	open	—	04-07 15:14
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	4	$2.9K	2,003	2,003	+0	open	—	03-25 14:15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	4	$2.7K	3,690	3,690	+0	open	—	03-25 14:17
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	26	$2.2K	2,739	1,423	+1,316	open	—	04-22 17:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	4	$2.1K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	04-22 08:51
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	9	$1.9K	1,076	1,076	+0	open	—	04-15 11:24
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	30	$1.6K	1,069	1,119	-50	open	—	04-08 15:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$1.5K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-14 13:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	31	$1.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	04-11 02:45
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	25	$1.4K	873	872	+1	open	—	04-10 16:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	5	$1.1K	690	690	+0	open	—	04-03 11:42
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	16	$965	550	550	+0	open	—	04-10 16:15
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	27	$858	1,369	1,369	+0	open	—	04-24 11:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	3	$759	400	400	+0	open	—	05-21 09:01
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	13	$684	368	368	+0	open	—	05-21 01:34
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	20	$536	2,701	2,466	+235	open	—	04-23 14:59
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	5	$522	705	705	+0	open	—	04-10 15:54
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	14	$496	290	289	+1	open	—	04-11 02:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	5	$454	300	300	+0	open	—	05-21 10:03
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	14	$348	208	208	+0	open	—	04-08 20:59
another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 2026	5	$342	200	200	+0	open	—	03-28 15:42
usisrael strike yemen by march 31	26	$339	546	410	+136	open	—	03-30 01:23
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$336	200	200	+0	open	—	04-07 14:53
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	9	$331	618	618	+0	open	—	04-22 09:05
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$291	178	178	+0	open	—	04-24 07:51
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	8	$261	288	288	+0	open	—	03-28 15:55
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 11 335	11	$246	242	26	+216	open	—	04-11 11:20
Iran leadership change by April 30?	4	$229	137	137	+0	open	—	04-10 18:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-23 08:08:11	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	SELL	389	0¢	$2	0xa22bd1…
05-23 08:06:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	84¢	$1,683	0x5dc2a1…
05-23 05:24:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x1893d3…
05-23 03:00:48	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	61	1¢	$1	0xd42351…
05-22 15:10:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xa7c8bc…
05-22 14:46:02	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	28	25¢	$7	0xf27b6b…
05-22 14:36:47	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xa41c06…
05-22 14:35:28	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	45	29¢	$13	0x7c3288…
05-22 14:35:09	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x691a0f…
05-22 14:28:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xf88e29…
05-22 12:49:41	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x20ce30…
05-22 11:59:49	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x848dba…
05-21 21:56:34	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xcc1320…
05-21 14:01:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	80¢	$320	0x121aad…
05-21 13:55:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	80¢	$320	0x649d84…
05-21 13:54:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x2c68a0…
05-21 12:56:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xb892f5…
05-21 11:50:14	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x736c19…
05-21 11:46:16	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0x72f6e7…
05-21 10:03:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	184	71¢	$131	0xbcd9bb…
05-21 09:37:31	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x0190d6…
05-21 09:08:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	116	72¢	$84	0xe3362d…
05-21 09:02:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,450	80¢	$1,960	0x0ca7ef…
05-21 09:01:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	400	95¢	$379	0x1be8ff…
05-21 08:40:25	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0x5977df…
05-21 08:25:11	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	54	7¢	$4	0x96e93f…
05-21 08:23:05	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x08367b…
05-21 08:18:27	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	18	7¢	$1	0x6c5f0f…
05-21 01:43:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x0c55b4…
05-21 01:40:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xbe26de…
05-21 01:34:45	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	SELL	156	95¢	$148	0xe697a9…
05-21 01:33:19	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	SELL	84	96¢	$81	0xb14a5f…
05-21 01:30:24	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	SELL	73	96¢	$70	0x24347a…
05-21 01:29:02	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	SELL	55	96¢	$53	0xe8a568…
05-20 15:19:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xfc81f9…
05-20 13:28:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x9beaaa…
05-19 18:43:55	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	33	89¢	$30	0x3d8e2b…
05-19 17:29:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x9033cc…
05-19 17:27:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xd21234…
05-19 17:16:53	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xd702f1…
05-19 16:56:13	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x47d85f…
05-19 15:35:02	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	24	90¢	$21	0x79f86a…
05-19 15:18:09	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xfbf88d…
05-19 14:11:53	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	223	90¢	$201	0x2e8347…
05-19 13:33:09	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	32	90¢	$29	0x537847…
05-19 10:40:59	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x71136d…
05-19 10:10:42	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0xbf9202…
05-14 17:48:59	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x569a11…
05-14 08:42:18	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	24	18¢	$4	0x4d51d1…
05-14 08:41:50	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	60	32¢	$19	0x18c377…
05-14 08:40:23	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0xd7c637…
05-14 08:39:46	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xcd0b34…
05-14 08:39:43	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x8fbc94…
05-14 07:38:56	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	92	33¢	$30	0x633883…
05-14 07:01:53	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0x4d67eb…
05-14 06:45:59	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	40	37¢	$15	0xf9eb1e…
05-14 06:43:36	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x069ec8…
05-14 06:39:19	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	120	35¢	$42	0x22c4cd…
05-14 06:34:26	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x809824…
05-10 07:55:03	Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	79	45¢	$36	0x008f0b…
05-10 07:52:53	Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	29	49¢	$14	0x788cd5…
05-10 07:52:53	Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	71	49¢	$35	0x6303e2…
05-10 07:52:34	Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xc48c3a…
05-09 08:27:54	Alexander Isak: Anytime Goalscorer	No	BUY	45	73¢	$33	0xac0284…
05-09 08:23:19	Cody Gakpo: Anytime Goalscorer	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x51a654…
05-09 07:10:40	Joao Pedro: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x2b803a…
05-09 07:10:30	Joao Pedro: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xe6b87e…
05-09 07:08:52	Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	38	60¢	$23	0x6af4d1…
05-08 15:56:32	Joao Pedro: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	45	25¢	$11	0xdc27d1…
05-06 14:44:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	70¢	$280	0x64c65a…
05-03 11:57:40	Ollie Watkins: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0xb59b53…
05-03 11:56:46	Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x22c750…
04-24 11:47:58	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	28	4¢	$1	0x537a2c…
04-24 09:45:28	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xd7e06f…
04-24 09:05:10	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x8c1d75…
04-24 08:03:40	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	80	53¢	$42	0xd648ea…
04-24 08:02:30	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xbe8b32…
04-24 08:01:58	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0xdc77be…
04-24 08:01:58	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	61	51¢	$31	0xb79b7d…
04-24 08:01:58	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0xac3ed9…
04-24 08:01:18	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	35	49¢	$17	0xeb5114…
04-24 08:00:22	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xde567d…
04-24 07:51:14	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	178	94¢	$166	0x2a9ecd…
04-24 07:40:24	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	578	4¢	$23	0x704cdc…
04-23 16:29:08	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x80a10a…
04-23 15:06:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	152	70¢	$107	0xe95873…
04-23 15:04:16	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x67cbf4…
04-23 15:04:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0x244584…
04-23 14:59:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	SELL	1,152	5¢	$58	0x3da5c2…
04-23 14:54:10	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	122	17¢	$21	0x3f3b50…
04-23 14:53:34	Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	23	68¢	$16	0x061869…
04-23 02:44:12	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	SELL	82	6¢	$5	0x968b75…
04-23 02:44:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0xba1420…
04-23 02:43:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0xcfcfbe…
04-22 17:02:48	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	44	20¢	$9	0x6e8096…
04-22 17:02:34	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	373	20¢	$75	0x2e6e0d…
04-22 16:41:40	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	35	27¢	$9	0x7da876…
04-22 16:34:34	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xb4bd0e…
04-22 16:30:22	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	280	65¢	$182	0xefdbed…
04-22 16:30:14	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	34	65¢	$22	0x0b2939…