Pink-Activation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$54

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.4%

Resolved

Trades

924

lifetime

Volume

$6.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-15 12:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

62% 46% +$6

Politics

25% 30% $-61

Tech

7% — —

Sports

4% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$479	1,050	1,050	+0	open	—	01-19 14:25
will the us tariff rate on china be between 5 and 15 on march 31	10	$274	216	216	+0	open	—	03-27 17:35
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$260	0	1,000	-1,000	open	—	03-27 17:34
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	2	$131	88	88	+0	open	—	04-10 15:32
will spacex file for an ipo by april 3 2026	6	$116	135	135	+0	open	—	03-29 20:37
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	4	$103	144	144	+0	open	—	05-01 14:11
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	2	$78	49	49	+0	open	—	04-10 15:33
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$74	50	50	+0	Yes	+$14	05-07 21:36
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	1	$72	0	102	-102	open	—	06-07 19:03
Will the median home value in Chicago be less than $336,000 on April 30?	4	$65	100	0	+100	open	—	04-07 01:19
will catherine ohara win best actress in a comedy series at the 2026 sag awards	2	$65	110	0	+110	open	—	02-04 02:48
will there be at least 1200 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 152 495 466 979 817	3	$64	169	0	+169	open	—	02-02 00:02
will anthropic have the best ai model for coding on march 31	7	$60	600	0	+600	open	—	03-03 04:49
will anthropic have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	2	$60	42	42	+0	open	—	03-27 17:35
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	7	$58	176	0	+176	open	—	04-07 14:15
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$56	41	41	+0	open	—	04-07 15:09
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	3	$52	89	0	+89	open	—	02-14 23:11
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?	11	$49	379	0	+379	No	$-49	04-22 14:58
will sinners win outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture at the 32nd actor awards	3	$48	107	0	+107	open	—	02-21 03:48
gpt 5pt3 released by march 31 2026 735 745 742	2	$47	77	0	+77	open	—	02-15 00:03
will meta close above 620 week april 10 2026	2	$45	114	0	+114	open	—	04-08 16:58
will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 10 15	2	$45	168	0	+168	open	—	03-29 22:22
will the 2026 state of the union have less than 35m viewers	5	$45	108	0	+108	open	—	02-20 16:41
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$44	140	0	+140	open	—	01-15 15:34
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	1	$44	60	0	+60	open	—	04-15 18:53
will scream 7 second weekend box office be less than 19m	1	$43	90	0	+90	open	—	03-05 17:59
will sentimental value win exactly 1 award at the oscars	8	$42	101	0	+101	open	—	03-04 02:51
cfb mia ohiost 2025 12 31	1	$42	100	0	+100	open	—	01-01 03:05
will all the empty rooms win best documentary short film at the 98th academy awards 268	8	$42	89	0	+89	open	—	02-06 17:15
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	2	$40	72	0	+72	open	—	07-13 23:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-15 12:21:07	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25 by july 31 20260629184429516	Yes	BUY	39	18¢	$7	0xfcfafb…
07-13 23:18:19	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25 by july 31 20260629184429516	Yes	BUY	44	18¢	$8	0xd3226b…
07-13 23:18:16	will anthropics valuation hit low 1pt05 by july 31 20260629184429518	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x98a93f…
07-13 23:18:14	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	Yes	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0xb78b07…
07-13 23:18:13	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x53dd2a…
07-12 19:15:38	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x5a650e…
07-12 19:15:35	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x4fe44d…
06-09 12:31:39	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xd7283d…
06-09 12:31:22	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	Yes	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0xe3be77…
06-09 12:31:19	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	BUY	41	36¢	$15	0x222ccd…
06-07 19:13:21	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x8229c9…
06-07 19:13:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0x4bb8c0…
06-07 19:12:34	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xcb31c7…
06-07 19:12:09	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x591990…
06-07 19:11:39	Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	86	14¢	$12	0xd4e561…
06-07 19:10:04	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x664efc…
06-07 19:09:39	Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0x17b4bd…
06-07 19:09:19	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0xec0a9b…
06-07 19:08:52	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	30¢	$8	0x666d45…
06-07 19:08:42	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	31¢	$11	0x7bba96…
06-07 19:08:19	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	119	2¢	$2	0xa7c8f4…
06-07 19:07:34	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x382d45…
06-07 19:05:12	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	11	56¢	$6	0x4e515d…
06-07 19:04:36	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	11	57¢	$7	0x3e32a4…
06-07 19:04:18	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	68¢	$17	0x8a3733…
06-07 19:03:39	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	SELL	102	70¢	$72	0x1ee58f…
06-07 19:02:52	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xe7fe2e…
06-07 19:01:33	Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x0822ef…
06-07 19:00:52	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	15	71¢	$10	0xbc586e…
06-07 19:00:36	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xefede8…
06-07 19:00:19	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0x09744e…
06-07 18:59:13	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x46df1c…
06-07 18:58:57	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0x54544b…
06-07 18:58:28	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	38	84¢	$32	0xf0d10f…
06-07 18:58:10	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0xf16b4e…
06-07 18:57:33	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xe8f878…
06-07 18:56:51	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0xa95f8a…
06-07 18:55:57	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x9bd156…
06-07 18:48:07	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	19	93¢	$18	0x623286…
06-07 18:47:49	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x155b8f…
05-09 12:28:37	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x3a2295…
05-08 11:15:29	Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	93¢	$17	0xbd59bd…
05-07 21:36:19	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x794389…
05-07 21:18:19	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xd8e7cd…
05-07 21:18:16	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x9badce…
05-07 21:18:14	Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	81¢	$15	0xce4142…
05-07 21:18:10	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0xdb909d…
05-07 17:55:23	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	32	10¢	$3	0x88dc54…
05-06 19:29:06	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0x680ae9…
05-06 19:29:03	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	14	34¢	$5	0x82f078…
05-06 19:29:01	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x7e8470…
05-01 14:11:00	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	144	45¢	$65	0x48dfd0…
05-01 10:47:40	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	78¢	$12	0x020a6d…
04-30 23:18:04	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xbf644c…
04-30 23:17:48	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	27¢	$4	0x5c84fd…
04-30 23:17:18	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x324a00…
04-30 23:17:16	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x0171d7…
04-30 23:17:14	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	108	26¢	$28	0x5fb0a9…
04-29 15:59:02	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0x294197…
04-28 20:07:30	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0xeb4124…
04-28 20:06:48	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0xdf55d6…
04-28 20:06:46	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x2ef364…
04-28 20:06:44	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0xf02c16…
04-28 20:06:40	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xc7ed53…
04-28 20:06:38	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0x8f62ab…
04-27 17:13:04	Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x9edcc5…
04-27 17:13:00	Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	13	72¢	$9	0xada2a3…
04-25 15:51:20	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	No	BUY	26	91¢	$24	0xe5f5aa…
04-25 15:50:54	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0x18c5c8…
04-25 15:50:34	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0xc4f3dd…
04-25 15:50:32	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0xd7f8c5…
04-25 15:50:30	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xfa41a8…
04-25 15:50:26	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x6b5140…
04-25 15:50:24	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	Yes	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0xeb803a…
04-25 01:52:56	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?	Yes	BUY	145	3¢	$4	0xb84b91…
04-25 01:44:56	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x0576d7…
04-25 01:44:12	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x2928c1…
04-25 01:44:08	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xe92436…
04-25 01:44:06	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x1ed7ec…
04-25 01:44:02	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0x6a0c61…
04-24 00:37:12	Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0x2e99a9…
04-24 00:36:56	Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x6110fe…
04-24 00:36:46	Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	56	20¢	$11	0xc835ec…
04-23 23:13:20	Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0xa253d8…
04-23 23:13:02	Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x4177e7…
04-23 23:13:00	Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?	No	BUY	150	20¢	$30	0xa7d5b1…
04-23 19:37:48	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	34	16¢	$5	0x2fa7dd…
04-23 19:37:18	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	54	15¢	$8	0x903c67…
04-23 19:23:10	Will Areeq Chowdhury win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xfdf9fc…
04-23 19:23:00	Will Areeq Chowdhury win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0xe108c8…
04-23 19:22:42	Will Areeq Chowdhury win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x10929c…
04-23 19:22:40	Will Mehmood Mirza win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xa6fe05…
04-23 19:22:36	Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?	No	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x5e87fb…
04-23 13:06:24	Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x456907…
04-23 13:06:22	Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	35	41¢	$14	0xaff7ed…
04-23 12:46:28	Uber # of trips above 3.6B in Q1?	No	BUY	77	17¢	$13	0x65f220…
04-22 14:58:32	Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?	Yes	BUY	27	13¢	$3	0x0a3082…
04-22 14:54:18	Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?	Yes	BUY	223	13¢	$29	0x419537…
04-22 06:58:50	Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xb1ce1f…
04-22 01:05:08	Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x11988b…