Pink-Activation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

—

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

—

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

991 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$7.74K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$202

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-15 12:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Other

62% 42% +$269

Politics

25% 42% -$508

Tech

7% 42% +$136

Sports

4% 50% +$252

Pop-Culture

2% 43% -$36

Crypto

0% 0% -$15

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-15).

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	No	-40	-$33	94¢	$-38	-$5	06-07 18:59
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-20	-$19	99¢	$-20	-$1	06-07 18:47
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	No	-20	-$15	97¢	$-19	-$4	06-07 19:02
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	No	-20	-$17	95¢	$-19	-$2	06-07 18:57
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	-19	-$18	98¢	$-19	-$1	06-07 18:48
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?	No	-17	-$15	99¢	$-17	-$2	06-07 18:56
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	No	-13	-$12	99¢	$-13	-$1	06-07 18:55
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?	No	-12	-$12	100¢	$-12	-$1	06-07 18:47
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?	No	-11	-$7	95¢	$-11	-$4	06-07 19:04
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	-10	-$3	98¢	$-10	-$7	06-07 19:10
Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	-10	-$8	98¢	$-10	-$2	06-07 19:00
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	-7	-$6	97¢	$-7	-$1	06-07 19:00
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	No	-5	-$4	98¢	$-5	-$1	06-07 19:01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-27	-$8	4¢	$-1	+$7	06-07 19:08
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	-50	-$3	1¢	$-1	+$3	06-07 19:13
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	No	-13	-$10	5¢	$-1	+$9	06-07 19:01
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	-10	-$1	4¢	$-0	+$1	06-07 19:12
Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	-10	$0	3¢	$-0	+$0	06-07 19:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$479	1,050	1,050	+0	No	-$26	01-19 14:25
will the us tariff rate on china be between 5 and 15 on march 31	10	$274	216	216	+0	Yes	+$140	03-27 17:35
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$260	0	1,000	-1,000	No	+$260	03-27 17:34
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?	5	$152	120	120	+0	open	—	05-24 11:55
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$137	173	173	+0	Yes	+$75	06-07 19:04
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	2	$131	88	88	+0	No	+$22	04-10 15:32
will spacex file for an ipo by april 3 2026	6	$116	135	135	+0	Yes	+$47	03-29 20:37
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	4	$103	144	144	+0	Yes	+$27	05-01 14:11
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	4	$99	200	0	+200	Yes	-$99	04-30 16:58
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	3	$87	102	102	+0	Yes	+$57	06-07 19:03
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	2	$78	49	49	+0	No	+$18	04-10 15:33
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$74	50	50	+0	Yes	+$14	05-07 21:36
Will the median home value in Chicago be less than $336,000 on April 30?	4	$65	100	0	+100	No	-$65	04-07 01:19
will catherine ohara win best actress in a comedy series at the 2026 sag awards	2	$65	110	0	+110	Yes	-$65	02-04 02:48
will there be at least 1200 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 152 495 466 979 817	3	$64	169	0	+169	No	-$64	02-02 00:02
will anthropic have the best ai model for coding on march 31	7	$60	600	0	+600	No	-$60	03-03 04:49
will anthropic have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	2	$60	42	42	+0	Yes	+$21	03-27 17:35
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	7	$58	176	0	+176	No	+$118	04-07 14:15
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$56	41	41	+0	No	+$26	04-07 15:09
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	3	$52	89	0	+89	No	+$37	02-14 23:11
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?	11	$49	379	0	+379	No	-$49	04-22 14:58
will sinners win outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture at the 32nd actor awards	3	$48	107	0	+107	Yes	-$48	02-21 03:48
gpt 5pt3 released by march 31 2026 735 745 742	2	$47	77	0	+77	Yes	+$30	02-15 00:03
will meta close above 620 week april 10 2026	2	$45	114	0	+114	Yes	-$45	04-08 16:58
will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 10 15	2	$45	168	0	+168	No	-$45	03-29 22:22
will the 2026 state of the union have less than 35m viewers	5	$45	108	0	+108	Yes	+$63	02-20 16:41
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$44	140	0	+140	Yes	-$44	01-15 15:34
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	1	$44	60	0	+60	No	-$44	04-15 18:53
will scream 7 second weekend box office be less than 19m	1	$43	90	0	+90	Yes	-$43	03-05 17:59
will sentimental value win exactly 1 award at the oscars	8	$42	101	0	+101	Yes	+$2	03-04 02:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-15 12:21:07	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25 by july 31 20260629184429516	Yes	BUY	39	18¢	$7	0xfcfafb…
07-13 23:18:19	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25 by july 31 20260629184429516	Yes	BUY	44	18¢	$8	0xd3226b…
07-13 23:18:16	will anthropics valuation hit low 1pt05 by july 31 20260629184429518	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x98a93f…
07-13 23:18:14	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	Yes	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0xb78b07…
07-13 23:18:13	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x53dd2a…
07-12 19:15:38	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x5a650e…
07-12 19:15:35	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x4fe44d…
06-09 12:31:39	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xd7283d…
06-09 12:31:22	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	Yes	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0xe3be77…
06-09 12:31:19	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	BUY	41	36¢	$15	0x222ccd…
06-07 19:13:21	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x8229c9…
06-07 19:13:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0x4bb8c0…
06-07 19:12:45	Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x542a92…
06-07 19:12:34	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xcb31c7…
06-07 19:12:22	Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?	No	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xfc5fb3…
06-07 19:12:09	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x591990…
06-07 19:12:00	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	69	14¢	$10	0x5e0165…
06-07 19:11:49	Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	SELL	33	11¢	$4	0x7a7afd…
06-07 19:11:39	Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	86	14¢	$12	0xd4e561…
06-07 19:11:28	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0x48e731…
06-07 19:11:13	Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	192	17¢	$33	0x01d3ad…
06-07 19:10:43	Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	29	16¢	$5	0xa93289…
06-07 19:10:30	Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	19	22¢	$4	0x993b76…
06-07 19:10:19	Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x9340b3…
06-07 19:10:04	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x664efc…
06-07 19:09:52	Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0xb81413…
06-07 19:09:39	Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0x17b4bd…
06-07 19:09:19	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0xec0a9b…
06-07 19:08:52	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	30¢	$8	0x666d45…
06-07 19:08:42	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	31¢	$11	0x7bba96…
06-07 19:08:28	Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	42	3¢	$1	0x035143…
06-07 19:08:19	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	119	2¢	$2	0xa7c8f4…
06-07 19:08:07	Will Misti Cordell be the Republican nominee for LA-05?	Yes	SELL	133	0¢	$0	0x8b361a…
06-07 19:07:57	Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	124	1¢	$1	0xadea8b…
06-07 19:07:43	Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0x40812c…
06-07 19:07:34	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x382d45…
06-07 19:07:22	Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0xe8e5c7…
06-07 19:07:13	Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0xdab6a1…
06-07 19:06:18	Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	32	40¢	$13	0xfb3381…
06-07 19:05:24	Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	33	56¢	$18	0xd3621b…
06-07 19:05:12	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	11	56¢	$6	0x4e515d…
06-07 19:04:55	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	173	61¢	$106	0x79f8c5…
06-07 19:04:36	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	11	57¢	$7	0x3e32a4…
06-07 19:04:18	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	68¢	$17	0x8a3733…
06-07 19:03:39	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	SELL	102	70¢	$72	0x1ee58f…
06-07 19:03:24	Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	No	SELL	23	72¢	$17	0x2c71da…
06-07 19:03:09	Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?	Yes	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x2080ce…
06-07 19:02:52	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xe7fe2e…
06-07 19:01:33	Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x0822ef…
06-07 19:01:15	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	No	SELL	13	74¢	$10	0x078701…
06-07 19:00:52	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	15	71¢	$10	0xbc586e…
06-07 19:00:36	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xefede8…
06-07 19:00:19	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0x09744e…
06-07 18:59:13	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x46df1c…
06-07 18:58:57	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0x54544b…
06-07 18:58:40	Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x284451…
06-07 18:58:28	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	38	84¢	$32	0xf0d10f…
06-07 18:58:10	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0xf16b4e…
06-07 18:57:55	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0xaa8b7a…
06-07 18:57:33	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xe8f878…
06-07 18:57:12	Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xddce7b…
06-07 18:56:51	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0xa95f8a…
06-07 18:56:37	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?	No	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x1a6d90…
06-07 18:56:12	Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?	No	SELL	26	90¢	$23	0x6d15cf…
06-07 18:55:57	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x9bd156…
06-07 18:48:07	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	19	93¢	$18	0x623286…
06-07 18:47:49	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x155b8f…
06-07 18:47:30	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$12	0x3d3bd0…
06-07 18:46:54	Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Yes	SELL	38	94¢	$36	0x1cbd0f…
06-07 18:46:36	Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	No	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0x6d3185…
06-07 18:46:25	Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x22d893…
06-07 18:46:15	Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x6da024…
06-07 18:46:00	Will Republican House incumbents not win in three or fewer nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xd8982a…
06-07 18:45:46	Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x43028c…
06-07 18:45:24	Will Brooke Pinto win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xec66cf…
06-07 18:45:10	Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x847ac5…
05-24 17:50:40	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	BUY	57	15¢	$9	0xa1e3a8…
05-24 17:50:24	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	No	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0xeee4f1…
05-24 17:50:22	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	BUY	45	14¢	$6	0x5fd76d…
05-24 11:55:04	Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?	No	SELL	120	81¢	$97	0x721ab8…
05-17 16:00:11	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	173	18¢	$31	0x050423…
05-15 18:32:11	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 50 and 100 hours without failure?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x640881…
05-15 18:31:31	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 50 and 100 hours without failure?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x8009c3…
05-15 18:31:29	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x80e55d…
05-15 18:31:28	Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xff22be…
05-14 20:29:53	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x6d2b2e…
05-12 22:35:50	Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?	No	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x83650d…
05-12 09:12:24	Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x54daca…
05-09 23:22:30	Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x50ba17…
05-09 12:28:37	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x3a2295…
05-08 11:15:29	Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	93¢	$17	0xbd59bd…
05-07 21:36:19	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x794389…
05-07 21:18:19	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xd8e7cd…
05-07 21:18:16	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x9badce…
05-07 21:18:14	Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	81¢	$15	0xce4142…
05-07 21:18:10	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0xdb909d…
05-07 17:55:23	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	32	10¢	$3	0x88dc54…
05-07 14:49:33	Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xa4bfce…
05-07 14:49:32	Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	BUY	32	43¢	$14	0x66cebc…
05-06 19:29:06	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0x680ae9…