Realized P&L
-$8
Unrealized P&L
+$13
Hit rate
76.4%
Resolved
19
Trades
357
lifetime
Volume
$6.15K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$1.23K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-11
last 10-27 03:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
72% 86% +$13
Other
27% 60% -$21
Tech
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
15 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +100 $94 98¢ $98 +$4 10-11 17:10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +105 $87 92¢ $97 +$10 10-26 12:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +100 $97 96¢ $96 -$1 10-12 06:36
Trump out as President before 2027? No +100 $96 96¢ $96 $0 10-12 06:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +90 $76 93¢ $84 +$8 10-26 11:49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +104 $74 72¢ $75 +$1 10-25 18:03
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +104 $69 66¢ $69 $0 10-24 18:03
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +75 $47 66¢ $50 +$3 10-27 02:21
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +45 $37 76¢ $34 -$3 10-25 19:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +30 $28 99¢ $30 +$2 10-21 21:15
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +30 $29 98¢ $29 +$0 10-23 16:11
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +30 $29 98¢ $29 +$0 10-19 19:15
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +30 $29 98¢ $29 $0 10-25 22:12
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +44 $28 66¢ $29 +$1 10-23 23:55
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +30 $29 97¢ $29 +$0 10-20 14:24
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +104 $29 28¢ $29 +$0 10-25 12:18
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +30 $29 97¢ $29 $0 10-24 19:34
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +30 $29 96¢ $29 $0 10-24 11:49
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +30 $29 96¢ $29 $0 10-20 09:38
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? No +30 $27 91¢ $27 +$1 10-22 03:56
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +30 $23 88¢ $26 +$3 10-20 02:54
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +30 $27 88¢ $26 $0 10-15 01:40
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes +30 $26 86¢ $26 -$1 10-23 19:34
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +75 $27 34¢ $25 -$2 10-26 00:16
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +75 $24 34¢ $25 +$1 10-23 09:41
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +50 $32 41¢ $20 -$11 10-13 03:38
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +30 $19 63¢ $19 +$0 10-23 15:49
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No +30 $19 62¢ $18 $0 10-23 08:34
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +44 $15 34¢ $15 $0 10-27 03:48
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes +30 $18 49¢ $15 -$3 10-26 17:09