Wise-Diffuse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

36.1%

Resolved

116

Trades

1,169

lifetime

Volume

$29.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$72

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-27 21:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Sports

34% 46% +$22

Other

33% 45% -$27

Politics

27% 50% $0

Crypto

6% 75% +$3

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	+25	$25	99¢	$25	$0	10-27 17:53
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+24	$24	99¢	$24	$0	10-27 15:06
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+24	$24	99¢	$24	$0	10-27 15:06
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	$0	07-18 17:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	34	$1.0K	518	518	+0	open	—	10-14 07:06
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	37	$860	439	439	+0	No	$0	07-07 17:06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	28	$822	414	414	+0	open	—	10-16 03:27
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	32	$806	408	408	+0	No	$0	06-30 06:33
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	29	$778	380	406	-26	No	-$1	07-11 20:52
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	29	$761	389	389	+0	open	—	10-26 21:18
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	30	$758	386	386	+0	No	-$1	07-06 06:28
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	24	$718	363	363	-0	No	-$1	09-04 05:58
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	27	$707	374	345	+29	No	+$0	07-10 19:57
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	29	$693	353	353	+0	No	+$0	06-29 19:59
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	22	$576	292	292	+0	No	$0	09-30 21:57
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	24	$571	292	292	+0	No	$0	07-03 21:30
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	22	$548	279	279	+0	No	$0	07-04 08:10
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	21	$528	270	270	+0	No	+$0	10-26 08:16
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	19	$494	262	237	+25	open	—	10-27 17:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	17	$479	241	241	+0	No	$0	09-26 03:37
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	16	$410	210	210	+0	open	—	10-24 15:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	14	$366	185	185	+0	open	—	10-27 13:18
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	15	$354	179	179	+0	No	$0	09-06 00:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	12	$352	177	177	+0	No	$0	08-16 21:03
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	15	$325	178	149	+29	No	+$0	10-06 11:33
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	10	$298	150	150	+0	open	—	10-20 00:10
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	10	$290	149	149	+0	open	—	10-24 23:52
kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	11	$288	145	145	+0	open	—	10-20 20:05
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	9	$246	123	123	+0	No	+$0	10-16 14:13
trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	10	$245	123	123	+0	No	$0	08-14 12:33
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$242	122	122	+0	No	$0	06-08 07:22
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	38	$236	119	119	+0	open	—	10-06 01:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	9	$233	118	118	+0	No	+$0	09-07 12:47
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	9	$230	117	117	+0	open	—	10-21 03:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 21:43:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0x940ced…
10-27 20:37:47	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$26	0xfb1eb1…
10-27 18:51:57	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0x2eff52…
10-27 17:53:48	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xbec5e6…
10-27 15:06:56	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xa341c9…
10-27 15:06:24	Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x7606aa…
10-27 13:18:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xd50b3b…
10-27 09:35:41	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x072ed1…
10-27 09:23:08	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x680877…
10-27 09:02:30	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xefba67…
10-27 06:50:45	Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0x345002…
10-26 23:05:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x9b6457…
10-26 21:52:15	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xd92150…
10-26 21:18:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x565398…
10-26 18:20:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x88cc5f…
10-26 17:55:23	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x9c1edd…
10-26 16:57:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x8a83a3…
10-26 15:32:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xef46ee…
10-26 15:32:14	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x2879f4…
10-26 13:28:48	Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0xfc995d…
10-26 12:29:17	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$31	0x5fae4f…
10-26 08:16:05	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x1b0653…
10-26 06:43:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xb2352e…
10-26 06:01:54	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x0e912c…
10-25 22:25:11	Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x6f7292…
10-25 22:25:09	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0xaa79fd…
10-25 22:24:17	Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xe4fa0e…
10-24 23:53:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x4cc8e6…
10-24 23:52:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x5ab99e…
10-24 23:52:24	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0xe02785…
10-24 23:51:53	Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x25585f…
10-24 17:43:26	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xb12286…
10-24 15:20:02	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	98¢	$32	0xb42000…
10-24 13:48:00	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x1c1063…
10-24 13:25:36	Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x0cdc9c…
10-24 11:27:41	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x13d249…
10-24 09:44:15	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xf93b9c…
10-24 09:43:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$32	0xfa7d77…
10-24 09:43:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x2f7d61…
10-24 05:28:47	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0xab2aba…
10-24 03:21:51	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0xd2e19c…
10-24 02:23:33	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0xd897e0…
10-23 20:57:38	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0x6f9aea…
10-23 14:41:00	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x583ca9…
10-23 13:50:48	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x0f6448…
10-23 13:31:15	Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x909ff2…
10-23 12:50:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x6faa65…
10-23 12:49:29	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x2ad6da…
10-23 11:55:21	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	31	99¢	$30	0x648d54…
10-23 10:34:24	Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x987b1a…
10-23 04:54:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x743bf1…
10-23 04:53:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$25	0x3d9263…
10-23 04:13:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xaa1703…
10-23 04:08:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x9f8fb0…
10-23 04:08:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0x07d69f…
10-23 03:09:57	Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0xf3056a…
10-23 03:09:33	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xbe480e…
10-23 03:06:23	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xbc4200…
10-23 00:34:32	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xa2a8e6…
10-22 23:33:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	29	98¢	$29	0x8f80cc…
10-22 20:02:47	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$30	0x6cba61…
10-22 17:36:08	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0xc01b88…
10-22 16:47:51	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x7e6584…
10-22 14:01:00	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x4a6495…
10-22 12:55:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x5945e7…
10-22 12:15:42	Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x288e3f…
10-22 05:10:08	Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x83d481…
10-22 04:09:08	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x13c417…
10-22 03:56:09	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0x1ff3ab…
10-22 01:43:50	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0xf05f9f…
10-22 00:13:33	Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x824ffc…
10-21 22:46:21	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0x734d70…
10-21 20:25:59	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$31	0x93ab56…
10-21 19:19:09	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xad4c41…
10-21 19:06:41	Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x2f3bca…
10-21 16:03:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	29	98¢	$29	0xafc9d4…
10-21 14:42:57	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x9974b5…
10-21 14:42:57	Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x2810ce…
10-21 13:01:59	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$29	0xc9f677…
10-21 13:01:56	Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x521f3a…
10-21 12:42:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x5de533…
10-21 12:37:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x669546…
10-21 05:41:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0xd99e62…
10-21 03:23:27	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0x03d581…
10-21 01:16:18	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x08da8c…
10-21 00:53:15	Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x82ea18…
10-20 22:28:35	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$29	0x52f0a5…
10-20 20:05:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x77ff6f…
10-20 19:11:33	Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x33a432…
10-20 18:57:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x0673af…
10-20 17:42:57	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xbc04b3…
10-20 16:14:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$28	0x982d58…
10-20 15:27:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x12dd86…
10-20 13:46:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x630e6a…
10-20 13:27:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x787d1b…
10-20 09:47:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0xec9cb2…
10-20 09:25:00	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0x127455…
10-20 09:20:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x42cf80…
10-20 08:25:28	Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xca05f9…
10-20 08:25:26	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0xa1b1ec…