Stiff-Parsley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.25K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.5%

Resolved

Trades

953

lifetime

Volume

$10.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 05-23 09:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

57% — —

Politics

24% 100% +$1,255

Other

18% 0% $-0

Sports

1% 33% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$1.4K	1,310	1,310	+0	Yes	+$1,254	05-09 05:08
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$1.2K	827	827	+0	open	—	05-11 21:26
btc updown 4h 1773331200	12	$608	738	727	+10	open	—	03-12 19:53
bitcoin up or down march 12 12pm et	17	$606	695	686	+9	open	—	03-12 16:51
btc updown 4h 1773403200	15	$519	1,004	996	+8	open	—	03-13 16:00
will uae strike iran by march 31	5	$456	247	247	+0	open	—	03-30 17:22
btc updown 5m 1773417900	6	$236	262	92	+170	open	—	03-13 16:11
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	4	$223	171	171	+0	open	—	03-30 14:09
will bitcoin reach 72k on march 12	4	$198	131	130	+1	open	—	03-12 18:33
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	3	$180	405	203	+203	open	—	05-14 03:15
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$180	164	164	+0	open	—	03-13 19:11
btc updown 15m 1773331200	5	$166	384	131	+253	open	—	03-12 16:08
btc updown 15m 1773412200	9	$155	188	111	+77	open	—	03-13 14:35
btc updown 15m 1773413100	10	$150	177	175	+2	open	—	03-13 15:00
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	3	$134	76	76	+0	open	—	03-30 07:20
btc updown 15m 1773342000	9	$134	165	163	+2	open	—	03-12 19:11
btc updown 15m 1773414000	9	$118	112	111	+2	open	—	03-13 15:15
btc updown 4h 1773345600	5	$110	120	118	+1	open	—	03-12 23:07
btc updown 15m 1773411300	10	$107	247	94	+153	open	—	03-13 14:23
btc updown 5m 1773416400	5	$96	56	56	+0	open	—	03-13 15:46
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	10	$84	4,651	146	+4,505	open	—	03-24 21:12
btc updown 15m 1773345600	8	$73	91	55	+36	open	—	03-12 20:10
btc updown 5m 1773415800	4	$65	36	36	+0	open	—	03-13 15:35
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	4	$64	384	344	+40	open	—	02-28 22:12
btc updown 15m 1773417600	6	$62	51	51	+1	open	—	03-13 16:15
bitcoin up or down march 12 11am et	2	$60	175	0	+175	open	—	03-12 15:15
bitcoin up or down on march 12	8	$53	96	94	+1	open	—	03-12 16:00
btc updown 5m 1773418800	3	$53	34	33	+0	open	—	03-13 16:25
btc updown 5m 1773414600	6	$50	42	42	+0	open	—	03-13 15:15
bitcoin up or down march 13 3am et	4	$50	147	0	+147	open	—	03-13 07:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-23 09:27:36	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,001	1¢	$8	0x12009d…
05-23 09:27:33	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	SELL	198	4¢	$9	0xabfbfa…
05-23 09:27:12	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	198	5¢	$10	0x321d77…
05-23 08:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	33	14¢	$5	0x6e463a…
05-23 08:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	33	66¢	$22	0xec1c44…
05-23 08:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	33	14¢	$5	0x69667c…
05-15 14:41:45	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,065	0¢	$5	0x6e09c8…
05-14 22:22:56	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	1¢	$20	0xbf7196…
05-14 21:38:12	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0x87dc2a…
05-14 04:05:13	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13?	Yes	BUY	230	0¢	$1	0xb08e43…
05-14 03:15:12	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	203	15¢	$30	0xf29b53…
05-13 11:52:26	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	371	1¢	$5	0x55a817…
05-13 11:40:19	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	7¢	$10	0x38d597…
05-12 20:50:04	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0xfdc72e…
05-12 20:19:21	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	155	32¢	$50	0x16017f…
05-12 18:26:18	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	SELL	82	23¢	$19	0xd3487a…
05-12 17:45:44	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	630	2¢	$10	0xc7a202…
05-12 17:44:59	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	BUY	82	36¢	$30	0x96eb63…
05-11 22:03:49	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	909	1¢	$8	0xa17e11…
05-11 21:26:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	612	67¢	$408	0x175373…
05-11 19:54:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	909	1¢	$10	0x74140a…
05-10 08:05:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	215	74¢	$160	0x2538c5…
05-09 19:40:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	795	71¢	$565	0x7d395d…
05-09 09:45:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xe6420e…
05-09 05:08:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,310	100¢	$1,309	0xa84772…
04-23 06:47:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	324	4¢	$13	0x67364d…
04-23 06:29:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	436	5¢	$21	0xf8604c…
04-22 19:19:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	252	4¢	$10	0x050783…
04-22 19:18:42	US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x92438f…
04-21 20:04:18	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x8c74e8…
04-21 19:54:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	298	3¢	$10	0x6fdccc…
04-21 17:36:10	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xdb7961…
04-16 04:51:48	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x03b87f…
04-08 02:41:55	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	56	42¢	$23	0xd7edf1…
04-07 07:59:09	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase april 7 13	No	BUY	82	4¢	$3	0x383053…
04-07 07:58:29	US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0xee401c…
04-06 12:49:27	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x31c93c…
04-06 12:48:47	Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x79f6a2…
04-06 05:20:33	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x854bf7…
04-04 12:11:47	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbd0393…
04-04 12:07:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x8e6e54…
04-03 21:18:51	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x344cef…
04-03 21:03:41	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xd90839…
04-02 10:29:19	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xd6f0aa…
04-02 09:54:59	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x3b13eb…
03-31 07:05:11	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x1c1058…
03-30 19:30:01	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0x9a0198…
03-30 19:15:07	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xef3df1…
03-30 19:14:35	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	Yes	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xb29442…
03-30 17:22:27	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	247	98¢	$242	0x2770d5…
03-30 14:09:47	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	SELL	171	65¢	$112	0xe4fb65…
03-30 07:22:24	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0x3171ea…
03-30 07:20:50	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xda7847…
03-30 07:20:30	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	SELL	76	98¢	$74	0x5dde83…
03-30 07:20:14	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xe3f42a…
03-30 06:39:40	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x3a2b90…
03-30 06:15:36	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xdaebe2…
03-30 06:15:22	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	SELL	356	1¢	$4	0x1cfe7a…
03-29 16:06:58	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xe3b9a0…
03-29 15:10:36	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x16d33a…
03-29 08:14:44	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5bb1c3…
03-28 23:29:14	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd0d37a…
03-28 23:26:20	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	SELL	14	36¢	$5	0x4db6a9…
03-28 23:24:56	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	SELL	15	56¢	$8	0x7a3408…
03-28 23:23:06	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	BUY	87	1¢	$1	0xf158af…
03-28 16:49:39	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	16	30¢	$5	0x5970d7…
03-28 09:39:01	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	BUY	269	3¢	$7	0xbea978…
03-28 09:29:51	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0x5296fc…
03-28 09:02:07	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0xc8950f…
03-26 17:59:37	us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x43ed85…
03-26 12:32:15	Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x843191…
03-26 06:26:37	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x17b03b…
03-26 06:21:43	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x5833c1…
03-25 20:37:35	Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xa09c0d…
03-25 15:42:49	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x155c6a…
03-25 10:12:03	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	No	SELL	13	98¢	$12	0x13e61b…
03-25 10:11:47	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0x09cfb2…
03-25 09:42:39	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	8¢	$5	0x3d5e3e…
03-25 09:42:29	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1360 1399	Yes	SELL	8	19¢	$1	0x9afbfb…
03-25 09:42:19	Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0x8c7aba…
03-25 09:41:43	Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	6¢	$4	0x6e381f…
03-25 09:41:35	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1400plus	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x7b16a1…
03-24 21:12:43	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	1,655	0¢	$3	0xe974cf…
03-24 21:09:59	will the bank of mexico announce no change at the march meeting	Yes	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0xea9fad…
03-24 19:42:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x0e40c3…
03-24 19:21:47	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	1,600	0¢	$3	0x84a63a…
03-24 18:59:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc94e1d…
03-24 07:39:25	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	750	0¢	$2	0x00d202…
03-24 07:38:29	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x9cf37b…
03-23 20:31:09	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x0d4924…
03-23 19:27:47	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x773a0f…
03-23 05:34:21	khamenei of tweets march 17 march 24 2026 40 59	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xa70af6…
03-23 05:30:33	elon musk of tweets march 21 march 23 90 114	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xb4567b…
03-21 13:35:51	US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x236d4a…
03-21 06:03:33	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xbcdd63…
03-21 05:18:47	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	SELL	127	23¢	$29	0x4d13a3…
03-20 14:39:47	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	28	71¢	$20	0x14062f…
03-20 14:33:57	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0xa764d5…
03-20 09:25:05	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xb2b050…
03-20 05:15:33	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0xab8acf…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	243	$357.2K	34,145	03-28 15:39
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	236	$1.47M	29,738	05-28 08:53
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	223	$122.0K	24,656	05-06 16:25
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	221	$662.0K	59,448	05-04 10:48
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	220	$70.1K	27,055	04-23 08:12
Different-Ecclesia 0xb6fa…abcf	214	$609.7K	17,340	04-27 18:23
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	214	$18.2K	5,543	05-29 18:48
Well-Documented-Hit 0x30ce…6b2b	208	$696.4K	38,378	04-09 19:47