Selfish-Tangerine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

41.9%

Resolved

Trades

3,127

lifetime

Volume

$22.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 07-05 15:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Politics

51% 33% $-21

Other

33% 62% $-1

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

6% — —

Sports

3% 12% $-19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	43	$631	350	350	+0	open	—	03-29 12:10
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	71	$628	391	376	+15	open	—	03-13 05:45
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	64	$617	400	400	+0	open	—	03-10 12:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	37	$594	315	315	+0	open	—	04-16 18:18
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	45	$585	374	374	+0	open	—	02-25 14:50
will the us invade iran by march 31	41	$573	324	324	+0	open	—	03-26 09:55
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	23	$478	346	336	+10	open	—	02-21 19:59
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	57	$472	384	364	+20	open	—	04-10 12:20
will there be between 14 and 17 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	57	$410	416	405	+12	open	—	03-04 21:27
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	22	$401	220	220	+0	open	—	03-23 10:39
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	35	$400	253	253	+0	open	—	03-12 05:28
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	16	$394	289	239	+50	open	—	02-15 23:32
will germany strike iran by march 31	32	$367	190	190	-0	open	—	03-12 08:17
will there be between 6 and 9 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	17	$352	250	200	+50	open	—	02-18 16:48
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	19	$343	238	218	+20	open	—	02-21 21:42
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	28	$331	190	175	+15	open	—	03-17 16:38
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	32	$310	217	187	+30	open	—	02-28 05:08
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	18	$305	175	160	+15	open	—	02-21 05:40
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	19	$296	175	175	+0	open	—	03-23 17:50
netanyahu out by march 31 854	21	$282	150	150	+0	open	—	03-17 16:09
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	23	$281	155	155	+0	open	—	04-12 16:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	82	$264	581	601	-20	open	—	05-27 19:41
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	16	$249	265	265	+0	open	—	03-03 00:11
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	10	$249	215	200	+15	open	—	02-27 09:53
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	17	$249	180	160	+20	open	—	04-10 09:15
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	20	$202	135	120	+15	open	—	03-03 22:59
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	9	$202	105	125	-20	open	—	02-27 10:26
will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	7	$194	100	100	+0	open	—	02-18 17:27
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	7	$194	99	99	+0	open	—	02-17 23:42
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	20	$194	145	115	+30	open	—	02-27 09:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 15:31:55	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x65b25f…
07-04 21:45:20	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xe5737d…
07-04 21:14:16	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xd66d83…
07-04 21:07:31	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x2d94f1…
07-04 10:06:53	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x42d86a…
07-03 21:55:22	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x31cdca…
07-03 18:51:16	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x85294d…
07-02 19:57:38	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x6c1dc5…
07-02 18:52:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x9ba02f…
07-02 18:25:56	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8ae47c…
07-02 18:23:58	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x659eba…
07-02 14:04:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xbfc961…
07-02 12:51:14	spy closes above 740 on july 2 2026	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x9a98a0…
07-02 12:49:13	spy closes above 740 on july 2 2026	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xa85d99…
07-02 11:17:05	spy closes above 740 on july 2 2026	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xb2cd23…
07-01 22:50:17	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Belgium	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe2c917…
07-01 22:45:10	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcbe692…
07-01 12:42:47	will gavin solomon advance from the ak al primary election	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x4ee7a7…
07-01 12:40:04	will gavin solomon advance from the ak al primary election	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x805de9…
06-30 15:21:13	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x0e9706…
06-30 15:20:02	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xbd85a0…
06-30 15:04:22	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xeecb00…
06-29 22:37:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xede6ac…
06-29 21:44:41	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xb56418…
06-29 21:22:23	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x41ff97…
06-29 13:16:22	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x2e7bc2…
06-29 11:02:38	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x9c27ae…
06-29 10:59:04	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xb55efa…
06-29 10:46:44	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x453e7e…
06-29 10:44:13	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xc1d3c5…
06-28 22:25:19	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x8985bb…
06-28 21:27:35	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x7084ec…
06-28 20:57:20	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x344f13…
06-28 20:41:05	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xf45b5f…
06-28 19:26:41	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x3d8c84…
06-28 15:26:46	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xe2d809…
06-24 17:21:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x2d0c48…
06-24 15:10:14	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc23601…
06-23 16:27:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x28d2cc…
06-23 10:07:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0xeb34b4…
06-22 20:38:43	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$1	0xdcf931…
06-22 16:22:07	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xf9d026…
06-22 15:04:11	spy closes above 740 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x17cdaa…
06-22 13:42:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xa6b243…
06-22 00:36:16	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xc06480…
06-21 19:56:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x73a290…
06-18 16:12:10	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	30	14¢	$4	0x7b9709…
06-18 12:13:56	Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x065eb8…
06-18 12:12:37	Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x63e701…
06-18 04:16:17	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x2ee1b0…
06-18 04:02:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x009014…
06-18 04:01:26	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x5fb883…
06-17 19:58:23	Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x5e01d7…
06-17 19:42:19	Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd65a9a…
06-17 16:12:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xa94f50…
06-17 15:55:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x39f41a…
06-17 13:37:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x0640cb…
06-17 13:35:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xf5365b…
06-17 11:27:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xcc4c46…
06-17 11:27:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x1027ce…
06-16 23:54:44	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	1	73¢	$0	0x5336cf…
06-16 23:53:26	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0xa7936e…
06-16 10:55:36	will spacex acquire cursor by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xa7c9c9…
06-16 10:36:12	will spacex acquire cursor by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x49d7cc…
06-16 09:25:58	will spacex acquire cursor by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x362022…
06-16 08:35:16	Haiti elections delayed again?	No	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x9f5caf…
06-16 01:08:42	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x4fbe6a…
06-16 01:07:31	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0xe2fd1e…
06-16 01:06:21	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xbd024c…
06-15 16:13:24	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x543502…
06-15 14:59:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6c4c2a…
06-15 14:39:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0x404ba8…
06-14 11:09:42	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0x8e0860…
06-14 07:38:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x17960c…
06-14 07:14:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xb87e83…
06-14 06:57:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x3cdf97…
06-14 05:54:07	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xd9e941…
06-14 02:35:52	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	No	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xc44574…
06-13 17:53:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xed7895…
06-13 17:49:16	russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x031ee3…
06-13 17:28:34	Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xcf7fb7…
06-13 16:48:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x3e0108…
06-13 15:57:52	us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xea0942…
06-13 15:02:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x8c025c…
06-13 12:02:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x20e755…
06-13 11:21:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xf1c3c5…
06-13 11:12:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	9	52¢	$5	0xf535fe…
06-13 11:12:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0xcbac49…
06-13 09:43:25	us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xd61641…
06-13 09:30:51	us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x6c4c42…
06-13 09:28:21	us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x0e5c16…
06-13 08:16:04	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x6b738c…
06-13 08:16:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x5646cc…
06-13 07:21:57	will us announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 15 2026 20260612002622286	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x6dacb7…
06-13 07:18:46	will us announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 15 2026 20260612002622286	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x08808b…
06-13 04:42:42	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x2b8896…
06-13 04:26:24	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xe57745…
06-12 16:15:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x0f990c…
06-12 16:11:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x784f19…
06-12 13:48:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xfabccf…