Gummy-Backburn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$48

Unrealized P&L

+$52

Hit rate

1.3%

Resolved

Trades

407

lifetime

Volume

$15.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$642

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 06-08 21:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

64% 17% $-48

Sports

20% — —

Politics

9% 0% —

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	+300	$186	60¢	$182	$-4	06-08 00:52
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+200	$136	75¢	$150	+$14	06-01 18:51
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	-220	$-106	50¢	$-111	$-6	06-07 18:38
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	-160	$-109	69¢	$-110	$-2	06-07 18:38
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	+200	$90	34¢	$69	$-21	06-08 09:00
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	-169	$-91	12¢	$-20	+$70	05-31 18:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	6	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-11 12:18
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	2	$975	500	500	+0	open	—	05-28 18:01
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	6	$738	900	900	+0	Down	$-6	05-08 10:40
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	2	$655	500	500	+0	No	$-21	05-07 13:23
will nvda dip to 192 in june 2026	3	$564	599	599	+0	open	—	06-07 18:37
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?	13	$416	1,228	1,206	+23	open	—	04-03 19:31
will company b be accused of insider trading	4	$391	281	492	-211	open	—	02-25 12:08
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 24?	7	$390	394	389	+5	open	—	04-24 11:23
will france strike iran by march 31	3	$328	311	51	+260	open	—	03-01 16:25
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	2	$291	418	587	-169	open	—	05-31 18:11
will trump say biden 10 times during the 2026 state of the union address 599	2	$278	167	167	+0	open	—	02-25 06:30
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	2	$246	200	200	+0	open	—	05-19 09:37
will germany strike iran by march 31	2	$229	119	119	+0	open	—	03-01 13:38
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	3	$225	200	200	+0	open	—	04-28 05:46
ncaa tournament no 16 seed to win a game	8	$220	236	236	+0	open	—	03-14 09:49
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$216	801	801	+0	open	—	04-28 05:33
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026?	3	$201	165	165	+0	open	—	03-30 19:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$200	278	278	+0	open	—	04-28 05:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$189	494	215	+278	open	—	02-28 20:12
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	2	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	03-25 11:34
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	1	$186	300	0	+300	open	—	06-08 00:52
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	7	$184	625	0	+625	open	—	06-08 21:17
will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	4	$182	100	100	+0	open	—	04-09 13:47
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$162	132	132	+0	open	—	02-14 11:38
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$161	100	100	+0	open	—	04-28 14:46
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?	17	$154	1,067	1,067	+0	open	—	04-06 15:25
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08 rec cooper kupp 29pt5	2	$140	89	89	+0	open	—	02-09 08:40
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	1	$136	200	0	+200	open	—	06-01 18:51
nba bos cha 2026 03 29 total 215pt5	2	$128	96	96	+0	open	—	03-29 23:59
epl bri ars 2026 03 04 ars	2	$127	85	85	+0	open	—	03-04 21:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 21:17:33	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	135	20¢	$27	0xd28d40…
06-08 20:44:43	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	112	20¢	$22	0xeb7ea9…
06-08 19:52:43	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x66337e…
06-08 19:26:51	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	34	20¢	$7	0xbc7518…
06-08 11:11:54	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0xf6c6dc…
06-08 11:09:39	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xacb336…
06-08 09:00:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0xee8b63…
06-08 00:52:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	300	62¢	$186	0x494ae8…
06-07 18:38:33	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	220	48¢	$106	0xf72604…
06-07 18:38:24	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	160	68¢	$109	0xdf81b4…
06-07 18:37:45	will nvda dip to 192 in june 2026	No	SELL	599	46¢	$276	0x1e1e6e…
06-07 18:11:54	will nvda dip to 192 in june 2026	No	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0x53c733…
06-07 18:11:51	will nvda dip to 192 in june 2026	No	BUY	399	48¢	$192	0xd9b9ba…
06-05 19:13:48	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	208	44¢	$92	0x1d881b…
06-05 17:29:09	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	32	44¢	$14	0xa5676b…
06-02 22:22:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	444	1¢	$4	0x8f5537…
06-02 20:13:46	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0xe0e450…
06-02 12:28:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	444	1¢	$4	0x14628a…
06-01 18:51:06	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0x584134…
05-31 18:11:33	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	SELL	587	32¢	$191	0xd5a0b9…
05-30 06:27:34	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	418	24¢	$100	0xa32c6f…
05-29 17:26:43	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xafc9d2…
05-29 17:10:06	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x4944fe…
05-28 18:01:42	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	500	97¢	$486	0x4f8617…
05-28 17:54:00	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	500	98¢	$489	0xb807b1…
05-24 08:50:16	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xe2fb32…
05-23 08:04:27	Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0xa963f6…
05-23 07:36:11	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x4626ce…
05-22 14:06:38	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xfb352e…
05-19 09:37:45	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0x141919…
05-18 20:58:50	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xabba69…
05-16 23:01:27	Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x69c071…
05-16 22:30:33	Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x5bf343…
05-16 22:15:06	Will "Europe" be said 10+ times during Eurovision?	Yes	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x9cb6c3…
05-16 21:02:18	Will "Europe" be said 10+ times during Eurovision?	Yes	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0xd2a5a8…
05-15 19:25:57	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$0	0xf6ba5b…
05-15 19:25:32	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x5743f1…
05-15 19:25:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	0¢	$1	0x935639…
05-15 19:23:44	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	445	0¢	$0	0x4bc79f…
05-15 19:23:35	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	555	0¢	$1	0xe7e321…
05-15 19:23:02	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc6c0b4…
05-15 19:22:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	269	0¢	$0	0x26b6bd…
05-15 19:18:48	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	731	0¢	$1	0x0d695b…
05-15 19:17:22	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x16fba3…
05-15 19:13:33	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x58a696…
05-08 10:40:03	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	SELL	300	78¢	$234	0xe44b52…
05-08 10:33:26	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	300	23¢	$69	0x817e9f…
05-08 08:21:03	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	300	25¢	$75	0x0cf6c2…
05-08 07:24:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	300	21¢	$63	0xb52b08…
05-08 07:24:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	300	78¢	$234	0xb52b08…
05-08 07:11:32	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	300	21¢	$63	0x81112f…
05-07 13:23:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	No	SELL	500	63¢	$317	0x68760d…
05-07 12:51:59	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	500	68¢	$338	0x5bad69…
05-07 11:44:31	Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x5d4779…
05-07 11:44:14	SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xe8792c…
05-04 18:27:02	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x34aebc…
04-29 19:25:26	Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	125	5¢	$7	0xd77ef2…
04-29 17:13:28	Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x4d5122…
04-29 16:13:30	Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?	No	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0xc0118e…
04-29 16:10:50	Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xf6a840…
04-29 16:10:32	Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?	No	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x3855fe…
04-29 16:09:26	Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x9ef7de…
04-28 14:49:14	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xba25a2…
04-28 14:48:48	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xa66d11…
04-28 14:46:34	Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0xc2587c…
04-28 14:45:06	Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x85cd58…
04-28 14:06:02	Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0x11689e…
04-28 14:05:24	Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x793e9a…
04-28 13:41:14	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	SELL	15	45¢	$7	0x5c98c2…
04-28 13:40:48	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x2bfce9…
04-28 13:40:46	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x04e011…
04-28 13:40:42	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x2b8b87…
04-28 05:46:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	278	36¢	$100	0x571280…
04-28 05:46:14	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0x86f66c…
04-28 05:33:02	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	801	14¢	$116	0x66b003…
04-28 05:22:42	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xca91a5…
04-27 19:07:32	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0xbb332c…
04-27 19:06:08	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x2ad4ab…
04-26 15:40:48	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	41	82¢	$34	0x112343…
04-26 10:59:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	278	36¢	$100	0x16c132…
04-26 10:41:36	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0xd24edb…
04-26 10:41:28	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	801	12¢	$100	0x8263e1…
04-26 10:30:16	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xb02c8a…
04-25 20:11:00	Spread: Thunder (-9.5)	Suns	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x21faff…
04-25 20:10:22	Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 215.5	Over	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x9833c4…
04-25 20:10:18	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5	Under	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x1256fc…
04-25 08:50:16	West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x1d1fd2…
04-25 08:50:08	West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x4a88de…
04-24 13:30:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xef58e2…
04-24 13:29:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x1d88da…
04-24 13:16:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x789b51…
04-24 13:15:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0x4c9dbd…
04-24 12:57:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x1a4a31…
04-24 12:41:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	8¢	$4	0xe58ce0…
04-24 12:41:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x09ce80…
04-24 12:41:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x4c0fda…
04-24 12:41:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x4c0fda…
04-24 12:27:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x225158…
04-24 11:23:06	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 24?	No	SELL	289	62¢	$179	0xecd169…
04-24 11:15:04	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 24?	No	SELL	93	62¢	$58	0x7783b3…