Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$267

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

4.7%

Resolved

346

Trades

1,403

lifetime

Volume

$16.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-06-14

last 10-14 12:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

40% 12% -$164

Sports

33% 40% -$58

Politics

17% 33% -$54

Tech

6% 36% -$13

Crypto

4% 56% +$21

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+2	$1	12¢	$0	-$1	07-17 06:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	43	$944	1,249	815	+434	Yes	-$9	06-20 11:10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	6	$685	699	699	+0	No	-$12	06-19 18:19
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$506	1,558	1,558	+0	No	-$2	06-30 06:30
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	11	$473	771	447	+324	No	-$6	06-20 08:17
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	22	$425	690	650	+40	No	-$1	06-30 22:32
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?	8	$394	332	332	+0	No	-$25	06-19 14:45
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	21	$385	517	292	+225	No	-$6	06-22 23:20
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$359	461	461	+0	No	-$4	06-30 20:12
will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	2	$339	204	204	+0	No	-$8	06-20 05:52
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	5	$330	408	208	+200	No	-$8	06-19 18:32
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	4	$322	219	219	+0	Yes	-$18	06-20 06:15
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	3	$298	235	235	+0	Yes	-$31	06-19 17:43
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	33	$271	760	712	+48	No	-$1	06-30 11:27
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$260	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-20 10:15
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	9	$246	494	22	+472	Yes	+$0	06-22 19:08
will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	2	$215	500	500	+0	No	-$5	06-30 22:53
starmer out by june 22 2026	9	$214	367	327	+39	Yes	-$3	06-19 18:47
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	4	$202	201	201	+0	Yes	-$2	06-20 14:04
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?	4	$199	162	162	+0	No	-$7	06-22 18:06
gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	4	$197	200	200	+0	No	-$5	07-01 02:42
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	5	$196	197	97	+100	No	-$4	06-22 13:41
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?	2	$187	136	136	+0	Yes	-$1	06-22 10:20
will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	4	$179	204	204	+0	Yes	-$2	07-01 05:47
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	15	$178	401	301	+100	No	-$4	06-20 08:16
will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	4	$178	100	100	+0	Yes	-$1	06-29 23:34
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$167	406	406	+0	Yes	-$3	06-23 04:00
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	5	$166	252	52	+200	No	-$2	06-19 14:08
fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 spread away 1pt5	8	$165	255	55	+200	Argentina	$0	06-25 14:49
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?	4	$147	288	26	+262	No	-$3	06-20 09:07
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	4	$139	156	156	+0	No	-$5	06-23 06:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 12:49:51	Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xdf5107…
10-14 12:49:51	Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xaff152…
10-14 12:49:51	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa79197…
10-14 12:49:51	Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x8cdc8a…
10-14 12:49:51	Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x8292d2…
10-14 12:49:51	Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x52316e…
10-14 12:49:51	Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x4ae53b…
10-14 12:49:51	us iran hormuz agreement by october 15	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4520ae…
10-14 12:49:51	Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x205bd3…
10-14 12:49:51	Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x1afe07…
10-14 12:49:51	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x1abefb…
10-14 12:49:50	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0xded0bb…
10-14 12:49:50	Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x85aebc…
10-14 12:49:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x5c4c4f…
10-14 12:49:50	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5b1188…
10-14 12:49:50	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x57bc10…
10-14 12:49:50	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x5607df…
10-14 11:57:48	us iran hormuz agreement by october 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8f4466…
10-14 11:57:47	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x24fbd3…
10-14 04:47:11	Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb1de4b…
10-14 04:47:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x589467…
10-12 11:13:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe7d739…
10-12 11:13:44	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0de3d0…
10-12 00:32:44	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xcf0320…
10-12 00:32:42	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd4ee34…
10-10 14:06:39	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x99e93d…
10-10 14:06:33	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa4301f…
10-09 22:41:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x814d93…
10-09 22:41:44	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7440a7…
10-09 13:56:01	Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd2341b…
10-09 13:55:55	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9d2c2b…
10-09 08:17:18	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2be385…
10-09 08:17:12	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x112bf3…
10-05 17:40:34	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x15e173…
10-05 17:40:26	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xda7604…
10-05 04:00:35	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x865dae…
10-03 21:35:52	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x91f00c…
10-03 21:35:08	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7e8ee2…
10-03 19:40:03	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa583a2…
10-03 19:39:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xdc02f4…
10-02 02:51:53	Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x642f92…
10-02 02:51:06	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x8e6960…
10-02 02:47:23	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfa25c5…
10-02 02:46:44	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x445ba4…
10-01 08:23:30	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd04086…
10-01 08:22:15	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd26b9b…
10-01 06:17:14	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x7d2c44…
10-01 05:06:15	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1763ed…
10-01 05:05:36	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6624f1…
10-01 01:37:05	Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x8526c2…
10-01 01:36:11	Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7f5ab4…
10-01 00:59:11	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x940935…
10-01 00:58:35	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd118bd…
09-30 01:02:26	Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xca6994…
09-30 01:01:21	dtrump out as president by september 30	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc8c22a…
09-30 00:58:00	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd9fe41…
09-30 00:57:14	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8fd480…
09-30 00:50:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5be7f0…
09-30 00:49:50	Will Trump resign before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x37cf42…
09-30 00:48:29	Will Trump resign before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x59e755…
09-30 00:47:56	Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0bc31f…
09-30 00:46:36	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x365499…
09-30 00:46:24	Will Trump resign before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xdff7e2…
09-29 16:21:56	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x33fd33…
09-29 16:21:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3facb9…
09-29 14:13:08	Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x46aa44…
09-29 14:12:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3aa555…
09-29 11:57:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x82bd89…
09-29 11:57:08	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5f2a4f…
09-21 19:18:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x033ceb…
09-21 19:18:19	Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x6fc9fd…
09-21 15:03:01	Will Trump resign before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x57ee5e…
09-21 15:02:55	GTA VI released by October 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x14dd83…
09-21 15:01:51	Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xad7f7e…
09-21 15:01:37	Will Trump resign before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf46527…
09-21 09:41:44	Will Trump resign before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7904a2…
09-21 09:41:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x99e04b…
09-21 09:39:32	GTA VI released by October 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x81d36f…
09-21 09:39:26	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6f193f…
09-21 09:38:23	Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x76ba9d…
09-21 09:38:17	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcaf45a…
09-21 09:16:32	Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x58b197…
09-21 09:16:26	Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe77939…
09-21 06:41:42	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf734fb…
09-21 06:41:36	Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x36b7fd…
09-21 05:41:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc6f39b…
09-21 05:41:25	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5bae80…
09-20 23:22:31	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x76706e…
09-20 23:22:23	Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5c72b2…
09-20 19:05:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc27a07…
09-20 19:05:41	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb56783…
09-20 17:55:06	Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0689da…
09-20 17:55:00	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4f59e4…
09-20 17:29:01	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x539b27…
09-20 17:28:34	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x0663bf…
09-20 17:27:24	Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xdcc4cb…
09-20 17:26:21	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8216ac…
09-20 14:53:04	Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x29fc4a…
09-17 04:14:42	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x39d674…
09-17 04:14:40	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xf9362e…