Realized P&L
-$12.4K
Unrealized P&L
-$2.49K
Hit rate
60.9%
Resolved
5
Trades
4,221
lifetime
Volume
$922.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$219
Open exposure
$119.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 18:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
57%
50%
$-12,753
Other
42%
100%
+$333
Sports
1%
—
—
Tech
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
66 active days in 12wk
• peak 267 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | +12,211 | $11,211 | 99¢ | $12.1K | +$847 | 07-20 20:50 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +16,728 | $13,179 | 72¢ | $12.0K | $-1,219 | 07-18 16:23 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +13,041 | $11,867 | 90¢ | $11.7K | $-195 | 07-18 15:54 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +12,900 | $11,316 | 86¢ | $11.2K | $-158 | 07-18 15:55 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +11,559 | $10,479 | 92¢ | $10.6K | +$97 | 07-18 16:23 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | +13,492 | $11,265 | 76¢ | $10.3K | $-1,012 | 07-16 12:27 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | +6,850 | $6,584 | 98¢ | $6.7K | +$105 | 07-09 02:48 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | +7,427 | $6,672 | 90¢ | $6.6K | $-24 | 07-21 20:00 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | +9,629 | $5,850 | 58¢ | $5.6K | $-217 | 07-21 05:25 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | -5,499 | $-5,139 | 92¢ | $-5087 | +$52 | 07-12 22:46 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | +5,997 | $4,823 | 78¢ | $4.7K | $-115 | 07-20 20:51 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | +5,397 | $4,642 | 82¢ | $4.4K | $-244 | 07-21 22:25 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | +4,234 | $3,980 | 92¢ | $3.9K | $-85 | 07-12 22:48 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? | No | +2,262 | $2,031 | 92¢ | $2.1K | +$39 | 07-10 13:45 | |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | No | +2,546 | $1,934 | 78¢ | $2.0K | +$39 | 07-03 07:01 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -2,004 | $-1,944 | 96¢ | $-1919 | +$25 | 07-07 05:37 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | -2,748 | $-1,882 | 68¢ | $-1855 | +$27 | 07-12 22:47 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? | No | +2,051 | $1,333 | 54¢ | $1.1K | $-236 | 07-15 05:09 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | -1,000 | $-939 | 97¢ | $-968 | $-28 | 05-28 18:43 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | -3,100 | $-372 | 29¢ | $-883 | $-511 | 07-07 03:21 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | -840 | $-905 | 94¢ | $-794 | +$112 | 07-20 20:49 | |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | No | +848 | $794 | 92¢ | $776 | $-18 | 07-18 16:00 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026? | No | +573 | $526 | 94¢ | $539 | +$13 | 07-20 20:50 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | +500 | $430 | 88¢ | $437 | +$7 | 07-16 18:30 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? | No | +418 | $346 | 91¢ | $380 | +$34 | 07-21 07:35 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? | No | +364 | $328 | 92¢ | $333 | +$5 | 07-09 10:44 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026? | No | +325 | $290 | 84¢ | $274 | $-15 | 07-18 16:21 | |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? | No | +385 | $250 | 69¢ | $266 | +$15 | 07-09 15:23 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? | No | +343 | $263 | 76¢ | $262 | $-0 | 07-03 09:48 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | +500 | $60 | 46¢ | $232 | +$172 | 06-25 04:52 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 188 | $31.0K | 39,136 | 5,000 | +34,136 | open | — | 04-27 14:27 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 89 | $20.7K | 19,351 | 6,326 | +13,024 | open | — | 04-24 14:42 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 47 | $18.6K | 11,482 | 8,004 | +3,478 | open | — | 01-29 20:02 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 76 | $17.7K | 14,469 | 4,959 | +9,510 | open | — | 03-22 02:04 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | 4 | $16.7K | 9,000 | 9,000 | +0 | open | — | 07-20 20:49 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | 85 | $16.5K | 13,650 | 9,000 | +4,649 | No | +$333 | 04-22 19:25 |
| will trump meet with vladimir putin in january 2026 | 50 | $15.8K | 16,018 | 0 | +16,018 | open | — | 01-27 22:08 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 14 | $15.5K | 9,291 | 6,749 | +2,542 | open | — | 04-10 14:07 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 71 | $15.0K | 19,845 | 7,489 | +12,356 | open | — | 02-27 15:02 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 10 | $14.0K | 7,081 | 7,921 | -840 | open | — | 07-20 20:49 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | 24 | $13.8K | 11,394 | 3,966 | +7,427 | open | — | 07-21 20:00 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 20 | $13.6K | 16,728 | 3,100 | +13,628 | open | — | 07-18 16:23 |
| us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026 | 18 | $12.7K | 14,121 | 0 | +14,121 | open | — | 01-03 11:23 |
| nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512 | 16 | $12.5K | 8,881 | 6,304 | +2,577 | open | — | 07-21 19:51 |
| will trump meet with vladimir putin in february 2026 | 47 | $12.4K | 12,834 | 0 | +12,834 | open | — | 02-15 09:51 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 13 | $11.9K | 13,041 | 0 | +13,041 | open | — | 07-18 15:54 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 68 | $11.8K | 13,732 | 7,587 | +6,145 | open | — | 01-30 19:54 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | 16 | $11.5K | 12,220 | 0 | +12,220 | open | — | 05-29 09:07 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | 41 | $11.5K | 13,742 | 0 | +13,742 | open | — | 07-16 12:27 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 16 | $11.3K | 12,900 | 0 | +12,900 | open | — | 07-18 15:55 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 104 | $11.3K | 6,741 | 4,741 | +2,000 | open | — | 03-12 13:39 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 11 | $11.2K | 12,211 | 0 | +12,211 | open | — | 07-20 20:50 |
| will trump visit china by march 31 | 55 | $11.2K | 9,342 | 7,139 | +2,203 | open | — | 03-19 23:22 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 86 | $11.1K | 18,789 | 9,956 | +8,833 | open | — | 02-27 21:34 |
| will the iranian regime fall by january 31 | 21 | $10.9K | 8,277 | 3,000 | +5,277 | open | — | 01-27 22:12 |
| will trump meet with putin by march 31 | 47 | $10.7K | 11,206 | 0 | +11,206 | open | — | 03-22 22:49 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 6 | $10.5K | 11,559 | 0 | +11,559 | open | — | 07-18 16:23 |
| us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154 | 5 | $10.0K | 7,840 | 3,747 | +4,093 | open | — | 07-20 20:50 |
| will trump visit greenland by march 31 | 57 | $9.7K | 10,354 | 0 | +10,354 | open | — | 03-18 23:49 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 20 | $9.7K | 10,950 | 0 | +10,950 | open | — | 03-11 00:14 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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