Joyous-Supplement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$218

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

72.0%

Resolved

4,580

Trades

16,050

lifetime

Volume

$424.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$307

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-20

last 10-26 23:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 192 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 89% +$816

Other

25% 2% -$671

Politics

15% 3% -$277

Sports

5% 0% -$31

Tech

4% 0% -$40

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 172 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$180	90¢	$181	+$1	10-26 08:42
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+100	$92	92¢	$92	$0	10-26 10:20
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	+40	$36	85¢	$34	-$2	10-25 16:04
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	3¢	$0	$0	10-16 18:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	11	$3.7K	2,223	2,223	+0	open	—	10-14 18:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	7	$3.1K	1,703	1,703	+0	Yes	-$21	09-22 13:21
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	5	$2.9K	1,550	1,550	+0	open	—	10-17 11:08
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	17	$2.4K	1,764	1,764	+0	No	-$12	09-17 18:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	11	$2.4K	1,317	1,317	+0	open	—	09-04 09:33
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	12	$2.3K	1,982	1,982	+0	open	—	10-26 17:39
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	10	$2.3K	1,396	1,396	+0	open	—	10-12 16:02
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	11	$2.2K	2,100	2,100	+0	No	-$28	09-05 16:37
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	3	$2.2K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	08-23 13:55
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	23	$2.1K	1,355	1,355	+0	open	—	09-29 09:51
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	10	$2.1K	1,150	1,150	+0	open	—	10-07 01:00
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	18	$1.9K	1,098	1,098	+0	open	—	10-23 22:05
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	11	$1.8K	1,645	1,645	+0	open	—	09-20 12:20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	19	$1.8K	1,533	1,533	+0	Yes	-$11	09-22 18:50
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	16	$1.8K	1,181	1,181	+0	Yes	-$13	08-28 18:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	6	$1.6K	910	910	+0	open	—	09-19 23:01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	14	$1.5K	1,789	1,789	+0	open	—	09-12 05:09
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	23	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	09-05 02:14
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	10	$1.5K	836	836	+0	open	—	10-17 19:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	6	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	09-06 07:19
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	12	$1.5K	774	774	+0	No	-$3	08-20 11:24
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	5	$1.4K	750	750	+0	No	-$2	09-01 05:25
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	23	$1.4K	1,250	1,250	+0	No	-$8	09-03 14:20
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	6	$1.4K	800	800	+0	open	—	10-07 03:50
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$1.4K	750	750	+0	open	—	09-17 18:23
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	9	$1.4K	969	969	+0	open	—	09-12 20:02
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	15	$1.4K	943	943	+0	open	—	09-04 15:48
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	17	$1.4K	796	796	+0	open	—	10-15 06:42
New pandemic in 2026?	7	$1.4K	947	947	+0	open	—	10-06 00:17
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	2	$1.4K	750	750	+0	open	—	10-03 03:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 23:30:45	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xccac3d…
10-26 23:30:27	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	63	92¢	$58	0x4b9774…
10-26 23:30:23	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	37	92¢	$34	0x0cbb0a…
10-26 23:13:17	Will Ajax win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	No	SELL	400	90¢	$360	0xf032ba…
10-26 23:12:57	Will Ajax win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$26	0x48ba9f…
10-26 23:12:50	Will Ajax win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	No	BUY	181	90¢	$163	0x51b316…
10-26 23:12:47	Will Ajax win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	No	BUY	190	90¢	$171	0x6a4f2c…
10-26 23:10:23	Will Newcastle United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x309d50…
10-26 23:08:42	Will Newcastle United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xebff63…
10-26 23:08:39	Will Newcastle United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x7e91a0…
10-26 23:08:33	Will Newcastle United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x61b5be…
10-26 22:27:35	Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xedf5a6…
10-26 22:27:17	Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x9ba9be…
10-26 18:40:05	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x4d8f52…
10-26 18:39:41	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x63b955…
10-26 18:39:38	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xb85ca9…
10-26 17:39:35	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	405	89¢	$360	0x69e238…
10-26 17:39:20	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	405	90¢	$364	0xb8d0d7…
10-26 16:23:47	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	200	92¢	$185	0x474e6b…
10-26 16:23:20	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xab9386…
10-26 16:22:54	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x8fe368…
10-26 16:22:38	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	BUY	160	94¢	$151	0xef5bd7…
10-26 16:22:38	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	BUY	240	94¢	$225	0x211f00…
10-26 15:53:12	Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	109	1¢	$1	0x0d566f…
10-26 13:37:36	Will "Fatherland" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	18	93¢	$17	0x7e53e4…
10-26 13:37:20	Will "Fatherland" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xab9ec3…
10-26 11:50:41	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	SELL	69	86¢	$59	0x7912bc…
10-26 11:50:14	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	SELL	23	88¢	$21	0x9de487…
10-26 11:49:21	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0xdddec0…
10-26 11:49:20	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	BUY	85	91¢	$77	0x045e3e…
10-26 11:49:17	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x21cf3a…
10-26 11:49:15	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x352209…
10-26 11:31:39	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	86¢	$86	0x84d44c…
10-26 11:28:17	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x3de0a0…
10-26 11:28:17	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x347d7c…
10-26 10:20:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	99	92¢	$91	0x7245cc…
10-26 10:20:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6b8ee2…
10-26 09:55:54	Will Penélope Cruz win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	19	8¢	$2	0xa16aaa…
10-26 09:55:36	Will Penélope Cruz win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	19	8¢	$2	0xaa2232…
10-26 09:47:30	Will "Josephine" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	54	86¢	$47	0x7ff969…
10-26 09:43:36	Will "Josephine" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	46	88¢	$40	0x7d40d9…
10-26 09:43:21	Will "Josephine" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	37	88¢	$33	0x429062…
10-26 09:43:21	Will "Josephine" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x08b1c7…
10-26 09:43:20	Will "Josephine" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	13	88¢	$11	0x2af51c…
10-26 08:42:00	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x94fca0…
10-26 07:38:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0x638741…
10-26 07:37:38	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0xad0e3e…
10-26 07:37:30	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	37	92¢	$34	0x1ed8ed…
10-26 06:22:56	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	14	90¢	$12	0x53b192…
10-26 06:22:32	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xcf0460…
10-26 06:22:05	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	42	91¢	$39	0x78a667…
10-26 06:21:15	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0x60d1f8…
10-26 06:21:11	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	42	93¢	$39	0x62226b…
10-26 06:21:09	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xfa4729…
10-26 06:21:08	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	64	93¢	$60	0x82cc85…
10-26 06:21:00	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0xdee22d…
10-26 02:38:53	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xeb38f4…
10-26 02:38:42	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xfb8a48…
10-26 01:52:12	Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	23	2¢	$0	0x09f454…
10-26 01:51:45	Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	17	3¢	$1	0x3039f0…
10-26 01:51:35	Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x140183…
10-26 00:35:45	Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0xf9fdce…
10-26 00:35:38	Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	120	5¢	$6	0x97e80f…
10-26 00:01:23	Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?	No	SELL	32	93¢	$30	0x31cc45…
10-26 00:01:06	Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbfb48c…
10-26 00:01:03	Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x5c0516…
10-25 23:49:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	SELL	91	90¢	$82	0xe88bc7…
10-25 23:48:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	SELL	325	90¢	$292	0x5085b6…
10-25 23:48:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	91	90¢	$82	0x767ac5…
10-25 23:48:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	325	90¢	$292	0xed833a…
10-25 23:39:33	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x06b002…
10-25 23:39:14	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xd8a0b9…
10-25 23:14:36	Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x358be0…
10-25 23:14:21	Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xd598d9…
10-25 19:52:39	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x745ca2…
10-25 19:51:59	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x8ddbfd…
10-25 18:01:15	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	11	88¢	$9	0x45dcf3…
10-25 18:00:48	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$9	0xcec62b…
10-25 18:00:48	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	11	88¢	$9	0xa0bd27…
10-25 18:00:42	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$9	0x388b0e…
10-25 17:53:47	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the United States?	Yes	SELL	18	5¢	$1	0x23e3e6…
10-25 17:53:36	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the United States?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x9464fa…
10-25 17:21:23	Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x728382…
10-25 17:20:59	Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x6e62d6…
10-25 16:55:24	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	37	92¢	$34	0x399211…
10-25 16:54:57	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	60	92¢	$55	0x6e1b18…
10-25 16:54:42	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	97	92¢	$90	0xef4c0b…
10-25 16:53:32	Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x937ce5…
10-25 16:53:21	Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x332f61…
10-25 16:04:54	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xd16d32…
10-25 14:43:18	Will Tennessee Volunteers Win the 2026 SEC Championship?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x5de191…
10-25 14:43:00	Will Tennessee Volunteers Win the 2026 SEC Championship?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x0cbe10…
10-25 14:32:36	Will Amazon launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xafe6f5…
10-25 14:32:18	Will Amazon launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x65dcfa…
10-25 13:57:12	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Yes	SELL	400	7¢	$28	0x143d9e…
10-25 13:57:02	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Yes	BUY	86	7¢	$6	0x02bf93…
10-25 13:56:59	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Yes	BUY	314	7¢	$22	0xb9fd4c…
10-25 13:31:09	Will Bournemouth finish top 8 in UEL league phase?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x6ca3df…
10-25 12:30:02	Will Bournemouth finish top 8 in UEL league phase?	Yes	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x5e2a2e…
10-25 12:29:14	Will Bournemouth finish top 8 in UEL league phase?	Yes	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0xf11386…