Chilly-Siding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$212

Unrealized P&L

+$89

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

707

Trades

2,421

lifetime

Volume

$115.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

$1.92K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-29 17:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 166 days

Categories

Other

52% 70% +$1,629

Politics

28% 77% -$18

Crypto

12% 48% -$1,843

Tech

5% 92% +$55

Sports

3% 48% +$399

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Discord IPO before 2027?	No	+864	$556	94¢	$811	+$254	09-15 01:26
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?	$140	+280	$64	58¢	$161	+$98	08-18 05:10
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	No	+90	$74	100¢	$90	+$16	10-15 14:10
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	-120	-$80	74¢	$-89	-$8	05-26 07:46
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?	No	-87	-$77	96¢	$-83	-$6	07-06 08:20
Ledger IPO before 2027?	No	-81	-$75	96¢	$-78	-$3	09-13 20:59
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	+626	$182	11¢	$66	-$117	10-19 13:55
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+520	$108	12¢	$60	-$49	10-02 13:14
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	-46	-$47	97¢	$-45	+$2	10-18 11:59
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	+50	$46	85¢	$42	-$4	10-06 20:19
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	-70	-$27	57¢	$-40	-$13	07-08 06:36
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	+90	$44	44¢	$39	-$5	10-18 22:46
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+140	$84	28¢	$38	-$45	10-07 02:01
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?	No	+30	$29	100¢	$30	+$1	10-07 13:46
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in October?	No	+30	$29	100¢	$30	+$1	10-07 17:41
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+63	$42	45¢	$28	-$14	08-08 09:10
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	No	+20	$19	100¢	$20	+$1	10-08 01:03
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	No	+20	$19	100¢	$20	+$1	10-02 04:27
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+300	$24	6¢	$20	-$4	10-06 09:32
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	-30	-$18	64¢	$-19	-$1	07-07 20:38
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$14	18¢	$18	+$4	09-25 08:17
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+20	$18	84¢	$17	-$1	10-15 16:19
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	-13	-$10	97¢	$-13	-$3	09-24 09:07
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+290	$14	4¢	$13	$0	10-10 16:02
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-70	-$21	18¢	$-13	+$8	10-29 17:51
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-270	$11	4¢	$-12	-$23	08-19 16:04
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-70	-$29	12¢	$-9	+$20	08-04 15:02
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+490	$11	2¢	$8	-$3	10-06 19:43
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	+6	$5	100¢	$6	+$1	10-08 06:29
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-40	$14	12¢	$-5	-$19	07-20 22:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will grok 4pt20 not be released by january 31 2026	19	$2.5K	2,478	0	+2,478	Yes	+$10	01-31 13:26
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 26 2026	3	$2.4K	2,402	0	+2,402	No	+$12	01-25 12:46
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 24 2026	5	$2.4K	2,391	0	+2,391	No	+$16	01-24 11:47
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 2 2026	1	$2.3K	2,300	0	+2,300	No	+$2	02-02 12:11
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	9	$2.3K	2,120	190	+1,930	No	+$21	02-18 03:01
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	7	$2.2K	1,115	1,115	+0	No	-$18	02-09 21:42
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	6	$2.0K	2,013	0	+2,013	No	+$22	02-06 19:37
us strikes iran by february 3 2026	2	$1.9K	1,955	0	+1,955	No	+$6	02-03 17:00
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 1 2026	1	$1.9K	1,870	0	+1,870	No	+$2	02-01 17:50
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	4	$1.7K	1,732	0	+1,732	No	+$9	02-11 02:10
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	6	$1.7K	1,697	0	+1,697	No	+$11	02-14 01:58
axp quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 30 2026 3pt53	1	$1.6K	1,619	0	+1,619	No	+$2	01-30 12:38
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 29 2026	5	$1.6K	1,617	0	+1,617	No	+$8	01-29 12:50
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 27 2026	12	$1.6K	1,618	0	+1,618	No	+$9	01-27 17:03
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	3	$1.5K	1,534	0	+1,534	No	+$10	02-09 02:03
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	3	$1.5K	1,476	0	+1,476	No	+$6	02-04 15:56
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	1	$1.4K	1,419	0	+1,419	No	+$24	02-22 15:50
us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525	3	$1.3K	1,305	0	+1,305	No	+$5	02-12 17:00
us strikes iran by february 15 2026	1	$1.3K	1,300	0	+1,300	No	+$5	02-15 17:56
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	2	$1.3K	1,273	0	+1,273	No	+$8	02-05 12:57
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	12	$1.2K	1,789	1,789	+0	No	-$1,226	01-30 18:21
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 30 2026	5	$1.2K	1,224	0	+1,224	No	+$5	01-30 18:01
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	2	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	No	+$6	02-16 12:41
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 4 2026	7	$1.1K	1,119	0	+1,119	No	+$4	02-04 13:10
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 5 2026	1	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	No	+$2	02-05 12:42
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	2	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	No	+$6	02-11 13:36
highest temperature in london on february 3 2026 7c	6	$1.1K	647	411	+236	Yes	+$1	02-03 20:39
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	11	$1.0K	1,511	378	+1,133	Yes	+$735	01-23 13:07
will claude 5 be released on february 11 2026	3	$1.0K	1,043	0	+1,043	No	+$2	02-11 13:36
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 16 2026	2	$1.0K	1,041	0	+1,041	No	+$14	02-16 20:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:51:37	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0xccbb33…
10-27 08:08:26	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xf49cae…
10-27 08:07:11	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xd1cf90…
10-27 08:03:05	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$17	0x8cedd3…
10-22 17:44:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x65244e…
10-22 14:16:29	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in October?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf1a186…
10-22 02:31:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xd07fba…
10-21 21:03:17	Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in October?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x949a43…
10-20 19:25:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x1f1112…
10-20 00:20:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	No	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0x5f923c…
10-19 23:00:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	No	BUY	62	21¢	$13	0xb35a73…
10-19 16:47:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	80	84¢	$67	0x8a6f7c…
10-19 13:55:21	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	250	26¢	$65	0xebb11f…
10-19 00:04:44	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$0	0xa3e665…
10-19 00:01:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?	No	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xd77834…
10-18 22:46:12	Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xed1284…
10-18 22:17:47	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	140	30¢	$42	0x8eff3a…
10-18 21:10:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x09c9d1…
10-18 11:59:21	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	126	97¢	$122	0xa9f40d…
10-16 09:10:52	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x4a1f88…
10-15 16:19:53	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x7bbf3e…
10-15 14:10:05	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x30bfb4…
10-15 02:25:26	will ethereum reach 3400 in october 2026	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x9eaf12…
10-14 23:50:43	Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	28	89¢	$25	0x89d327…
10-14 15:00:03	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x2f900d…
10-14 14:41:51	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	51	28¢	$14	0xb4729d…
10-14 12:14:44	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x4df59b…
10-14 08:34:23	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xa6ee33…
10-14 00:06:58	Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	18	89¢	$16	0x6edc75…
10-13 20:11:10	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	70	32¢	$22	0x32b2b4…
10-13 18:59:04	Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	14	89¢	$12	0x2d2236…
10-13 02:11:15	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x1ab9e1…
10-13 02:01:32	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	41	27¢	$11	0x07e7f0…
10-13 01:17:38	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xc0059d…
10-13 00:00:30	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x16a83d…
10-12 23:39:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xd072fd…
10-12 21:35:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 13?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x278dfc…
10-10 16:02:22	Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x810060…
10-09 15:01:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0xdc6344…
10-09 11:46:19	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x4d06c7…
10-08 06:29:55	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xf66be3…
10-08 01:03:38	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x8182b6…
10-07 19:11:48	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in October?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x2919c8…
10-07 17:41:00	Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in October?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xb76bfe…
10-07 17:11:13	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?	No	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0xd988d3…
10-07 17:09:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?	No	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x60c563…
10-07 15:11:19	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x45be32…
10-07 13:46:52	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x317040…
10-07 05:27:08	Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xbb3d6b…
10-07 02:01:00	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	73¢	$44	0x6308bc…
10-07 01:06:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xa81743…
10-06 23:32:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 on October 6?	No	BUY	9	81¢	$8	0xf7518b…
10-06 23:17:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 on October 6?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0xdaf182…
10-06 23:13:26	Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0x8009c6…
10-06 22:55:18	Will Messi score 2+ goals vs. Benin?	Yes	BUY	52	71¢	$37	0x101b51…
10-06 22:47:54	Will Messi score 2+ goals vs. Benin?	Yes	BUY	48	71¢	$34	0x8d414e…
10-06 22:45:59	Will Messi score 1+ goals vs. Benin?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x25ef11…
10-06 20:43:51	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 6?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$24	0xafd606…
10-06 20:19:11	Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x9856d7…
10-06 20:10:21	Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 5-11?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0xe0603c…
10-06 19:43:59	Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0x6565d6…
10-06 19:42:51	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 6?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x026f8c…
10-06 16:57:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x80e82a…
10-06 11:42:22	Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x9c4d33…
10-06 11:12:01	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x19339e…
10-06 09:32:00	Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	300	8¢	$24	0x577d8a…
10-06 09:18:25	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in October?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xe2a3e0…
10-06 01:12:34	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xa89cd4…
10-06 01:12:34	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x364b66…
10-06 00:20:49	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0xe1f73e…
10-05 21:40:44	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x19834a…
10-05 19:15:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $820 in October?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xf0a637…
10-05 18:19:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x776984…
10-05 18:16:31	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in October?	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x973328…
10-05 14:17:59	Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in October?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x3773fb…
10-05 14:12:52	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x6c62e8…
10-05 08:47:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x102168…
10-04 10:25:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xc3349f…
10-04 09:00:53	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x652abe…
10-04 01:15:26	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x339286…
10-02 15:59:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x1bd117…
10-02 15:59:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x4842cf…
10-02 15:29:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x74a528…
10-02 13:45:59	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	80	4¢	$3	0x459b07…
10-02 13:14:32	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	44¢	$26	0x0dea0e…
10-02 04:27:00	Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xc67b77…
10-02 02:22:35	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in October?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x3ee698…
10-01 23:54:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	70	4¢	$3	0xce21a3…
10-01 23:09:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x57d9e9…
10-01 21:23:38	will wti reach 110 in october 2026	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x0b250b…
10-01 19:50:44	will ethereum reach 3500 in october 2026	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x93de49…
10-01 00:42:26	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	60	29¢	$17	0xbf7354…
09-30 22:58:53	will bitcoin reach 85k in september 2026 from september 30	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x3947e3…
09-30 22:57:20	will bitcoin reach 85k in september 2026 from september 30	No	BUY	5	87¢	$5	0xd9ed4d…
09-27 06:46:05	Will Como win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xd377ae…
09-26 14:06:45	Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	90	3¢	$2	0x4c68fe…
09-25 12:42:36	Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0x1272aa…
09-25 08:17:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0x1a4701…
09-25 08:00:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	14¢	$5	0x3d40a7…
09-24 15:47:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0x02035d…