Realized P&L (30d)
-$274
Unrealized P&L
+$106
Hit rate
78.3%
Resolved (30d)
366
Trades (30d)
5,554
118,401 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$163.6K
$2.88M lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$1.17K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-06 04:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 280 days
Categories
Other
74% 38% -$16,007
Politics
13% 47% +$1,638
Sports
9% 40% -$5,349
Crypto
4% 32% -$1,731
Tech
0% 26% -$133
Pop-Culture
0% 20% +$517
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 556 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? No -214 -$121 98¢ $-210 -$89 11-03 23:54
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%? Yes +220 $27 80¢ $177 +$150 11-05 16:57
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Yes +210 $109 70¢ $146 +$37 11-04 23:16
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes -82 -$49 97¢ $-79 -$30 10-31 13:22
US imports Russian diesel by March 31? Yes +300 $201 22¢ $67 -$133 11-03 10:53
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? Yes +300 $51 19¢ $57 +$6 10-03 02:30
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October? No +438 $130 12¢ $53 -$77 11-01 08:20
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? Yes +182 $28 29¢ $52 +$24 11-04 14:55
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No -53 -$44 98¢ $-52 -$8 05-04 08:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $85 12¢ $34 -$50 09-04 21:03
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%? Yes +120 $18 27¢ $33 +$15 11-05 23:00
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? Yes +300 -$15 10¢ $30 +$45 10-20 05:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? Yes +101 $27 22¢ $22 -$5 10-23 00:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? Yes +252 $16 8¢ $19 +$3 11-03 15:15
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026? Yes +299 $42 6¢ $18 -$24 11-02 07:49
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027? No +20 $16 77¢ $15 -$1 11-03 04:11
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31? No +65 $31 22¢ $15 -$17 11-01 05:15
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting? No +117 $37 11¢ $12 -$25 10-28 04:24
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -499 -$65 2¢ $-10 +$55 05-18 06:00
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? No -253 -$68 4¢ $-10 +$58 07-14 12:50
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes -286 -$48 3¢ $-9 +$39 09-18 20:11
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -499 -$50 2¢ $-8 +$42 05-05 03:27
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -457 -$50 2¢ $-8 +$43 05-08 10:35
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -499 -$35 1¢ $-7 +$28 04-28 15:21
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No -7 -$6 92¢ $-7 -$1 04-28 20:36
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -500 -$32 1¢ $-6 +$27 05-05 07:41
Will none of the listed platforms list tokenized stocks in the US by December 31, 2027? Yes +24 $4 20¢ $5 +$1 11-01 16:37
Will the Republican Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%? Yes +164 $23 2¢ $4 -$19 10-31 14:23
will natalie harp be the next white house press secretary 2027 Yes +89 $0 3¢ $3 +$3 11-05 01:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -323 -$12 1¢ $-2 +$10 04-28 16:47