Aged-Drum — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$61

Unrealized P&L

+$2.51K

Hit rate

77.8%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

2,470 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$2.12K

$129.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$52

Open exposure

$14.6K

30 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 11-07 15:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Politics

84% 59% -$1,043

Other

16% 56% -$814

Sports

0% 100% +$981

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,910	$2,347	92¢	$3.6K	+$1,231	08-26 20:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,246	$2,503	90¢	$2.9K	+$402	09-04 23:05
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	+973	$858	95¢	$921	+$62	08-25 22:18
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	+955	$798	95¢	$909	+$111	11-06 19:13
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?	No	+916	$867	98¢	$893	+$26	09-27 07:25
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	+841	$741	96¢	$803	+$62	09-05 11:57
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+720	$302	92¢	$666	+$364	10-15 15:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+639	$362	86¢	$546	+$184	09-04 21:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+566	$315	90¢	$507	+$192	11-06 20:19
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	+526	$436	88¢	$465	+$30	10-26 06:43
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	+316	$301	98¢	$308	+$6	06-20 12:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	No	+359	$271	78¢	$282	+$11	11-05 21:56
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	+266	$228	93¢	$248	+$19	11-02 08:00
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	No	+231	$206	93¢	$214	+$8	09-06 11:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	+244	$169	64¢	$157	-$11	10-22 07:54
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+138	$101	94¢	$130	+$30	08-26 21:59
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	No	+132	$45	94¢	$125	+$80	10-02 10:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	+163	$126	76¢	$124	-$2	11-05 15:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	+191	$91	58¢	$111	+$20	10-29 23:48
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	+105	$98	95¢	$99	+$1	09-29 01:10
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	+147	$93	66¢	$96	+$4	11-06 06:21
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	+721	$426	13¢	$94	-$332	09-25 17:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	No	+128	$88	70¢	$90	+$2	09-26 22:36
next us iran senior diplomatic meeting by november 30 2026	No	+101	$76	72¢	$72	-$4	11-03 15:34
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+66	$19	82¢	$54	+$35	10-06 07:50
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	-48	-$19	96¢	$-46	-$27	06-13 17:24
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	+53	$30	62¢	$33	+$3	09-29 18:39
NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?	No	+30	$31	95¢	$28	-$2	11-05 03:24
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+47	$17	56¢	$26	+$9	11-03 13:34
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	+30	$23	84¢	$25	+$2	10-22 21:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	67	$8.1K	5,390	4,824	+566	open	—	11-06 20:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	21	$4.3K	2,419	2,419	+0	No	+$393	10-28 19:09
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	42	$4.2K	3,004	1,948	+1,056	No	+$223	05-31 15:04
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	17	$4.0K	2,535	2,535	+0	No	+$300	06-19 02:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	44	$2.9K	2,482	2,124	+358	No	-$150	06-18 20:01
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	64	$2.9K	3,154	2,425	+729	No	+$1,143	08-17 18:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	33	$2.5K	3,266	21	+3,246	open	—	09-04 23:05
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	39	$2.5K	1,765	1,495	+270	No	+$236	09-24 12:06
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	53	$2.4K	3,957	46	+3,910	open	—	08-26 20:34
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	25	$2.3K	1,757	801	+955	open	—	11-06 19:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	22	$2.2K	2,182	1,201	+982	Yes	+$471	05-09 05:15
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	40	$2.2K	1,742	1,022	+720	open	—	10-15 15:01
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	23	$2.1K	3,131	3,131	+0	Yes	-$857	04-04 19:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	48	$1.8K	3,080	3,080	+0	Yes	+$169	06-15 00:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	8	$1.8K	1,216	1,216	+0	Yes	-$15	05-04 18:50
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	43	$1.7K	2,087	2,087	+0	No	+$509	04-22 02:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	25	$1.7K	1,370	1,091	+279	No	+$211	05-27 11:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	42	$1.5K	1,927	1,927	+0	Yes	-$272	06-13 11:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	50	$1.4K	1,085	847	+238	No	+$209	10-17 15:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	40	$1.4K	1,604	965	+639	open	—	09-04 21:43
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	43	$1.3K	797	797	+0	open	—	11-07 15:49
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?	20	$1.3K	1,161	244	+916	open	—	09-27 07:25
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	21	$1.3K	813	813	+0	No	-$34	05-04 15:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	7	$1.2K	649	662	-13	No	+$12	06-13 08:14
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	22	$1.2K	1,725	251	+1,474	Yes	-$786	06-07 01:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	17	$1.1K	1,606	530	+1,075	Yes	-$621	05-08 19:11
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	22	$1.1K	2,795	2,795	+0	Yes	-$299	04-07 21:35
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	14	$1.1K	875	875	+0	Yes	-$226	06-13 17:24
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	9	$1.1K	666	714	-48	open	—	06-13 17:24
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	11	$1.1K	833	833	+0	Yes	+$375	06-15 03:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 15:49:43	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	290	96¢	$279	0x230980…
11-06 20:19:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	150	89¢	$133	0x9caf22…
11-06 19:13:25	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	124	95¢	$117	0xf8056d…
11-06 08:55:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	150	87¢	$130	0xf9bf32…
11-06 07:27:33	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	37	95¢	$35	0x85ebd1…
11-06 06:21:06	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x82bfd9…
11-05 22:13:24	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x63c81d…
11-05 21:56:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	76	80¢	$61	0x9bf830…
11-05 20:57:16	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	93¢	$20	0x985c56…
11-05 15:26:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0xbdb990…
11-05 15:14:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xa2e310…
11-05 14:25:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x5c4647…
11-05 12:33:00	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0xba851a…
11-05 10:55:09	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	270	95¢	$258	0x8059f6…
11-05 08:28:03	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	95¢	$46	0x684095…
11-05 07:10:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x3cbfb2…
11-05 07:09:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x5d383f…
11-05 07:09:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x4f8a05…
11-05 07:09:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x7caf7d…
11-05 05:18:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$4	0x7a7eb9…
11-05 03:35:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	9¢	$14	0x4e5444…
11-05 03:24:03	NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?	No	SELL	90	94¢	$85	0x9e01dd…
11-05 01:34:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x271a25…
11-05 00:56:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xda267a…
11-05 00:32:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x28fa93…
11-05 00:27:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	36	79¢	$28	0x487cd6…
11-05 00:16:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$5	0x3e522a…
11-04 13:58:34	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	28	82¢	$23	0x802207…
11-04 09:21:06	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x33c407…
11-03 19:43:48	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$4	0x4580ce…
11-03 15:34:48	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	71¢	$29	0x11feab…
11-03 15:34:03	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	54	71¢	$38	0x033d35…
11-03 14:05:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	16¢	$23	0xb4749e…
11-03 13:54:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xada2da…
11-03 13:40:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	236	83¢	$196	0x27180b…
11-03 13:34:10	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	245	41¢	$102	0xb4001b…
11-02 23:27:52	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	98	76¢	$75	0x72c4ec…
11-02 15:06:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	135	83¢	$112	0x2f15d8…
11-02 13:39:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	79	36¢	$29	0x07bf26…
11-02 08:00:28	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x7ac14d…
11-02 01:38:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	79	28¢	$22	0x0690dd…
11-01 08:51:12	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	39	73¢	$29	0x676e9d…
10-31 23:29:48	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	15	70¢	$11	0xec2d21…
10-31 23:20:25	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	59	70¢	$41	0xb07979…
10-31 20:55:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	79	37¢	$29	0xb69f4f…
10-31 18:23:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	122	42¢	$51	0x7b4148…
10-31 10:47:42	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0xac1b9e…
10-31 09:27:49	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0x1427cd…
10-31 08:41:40	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xa33251…
10-30 11:46:34	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	SELL	26	12¢	$3	0x291826…
10-30 11:17:37	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x18b2e2…
10-30 09:45:01	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0xe2383e…
10-30 09:44:45	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0xaf93e9…
10-30 09:28:48	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x065a69…
10-30 09:12:13	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0x8f6ad4…
10-30 08:37:06	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xc824cc…
10-30 07:58:09	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	BUY	43	15¢	$7	0x7d2245…
10-30 06:49:31	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	38	62¢	$23	0x07d21d…
10-29 23:48:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	46	48¢	$22	0xd0dfb8…
10-29 17:31:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	46	82¢	$37	0x023032…
10-29 12:08:07	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	SELL	433	59¢	$256	0x246939…
10-29 10:59:22	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	SELL	7	60¢	$4	0xc18b21…
10-29 10:53:01	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	SELL	7	60¢	$4	0xe88419…
10-28 19:09:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,074	99¢	$1,065	0x2329e8…
10-28 11:30:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	501	99¢	$496	0x6dab5a…
10-28 09:00:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0xe5992d…
10-28 07:54:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x09fda8…
10-28 04:21:22	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xf9dbcd…
10-27 22:14:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	38	48¢	$18	0x06625a…
10-27 21:27:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x58e06b…
10-27 01:55:47	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	6	72¢	$4	0xb56422…
10-27 01:55:45	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	60	72¢	$43	0xd696de…
10-26 06:43:33	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	70¢	$22	0x914b1c…
10-26 03:45:38	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	84¢	$39	0xb27584…
10-26 03:28:50	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0x9fe4e7…
10-25 23:49:41	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0x7d0bf4…
10-25 19:03:03	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	66¢	$11	0x8f6223…
10-25 10:39:11	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x8992b2…
10-25 10:39:06	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0xeea29f…
10-25 05:25:38	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x9e86fd…
10-24 20:55:00	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$6	0x887238…
10-24 20:54:57	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x897cda…
10-24 19:05:48	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$6	0xa33c97…
10-24 19:05:41	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$6	0x02cb8f…
10-24 06:28:42	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0x8d30d6…
10-24 06:11:17	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0xf8d982…
10-23 19:39:26	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	55	67¢	$37	0x2a1ccc…
10-23 18:15:48	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No	SELL	38	76¢	$29	0x97eb0b…
10-23 13:27:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x5c3f60…
10-23 08:25:26	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	61	62¢	$38	0x404553…
10-23 07:31:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	59	74¢	$43	0xb3d622…
10-23 07:31:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x6d2f00…
10-23 06:31:23	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	BUY	16	42¢	$7	0xa45e66…
10-23 01:26:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	28	74¢	$21	0x2ab025…
10-23 00:28:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	163	74¢	$121	0x441edb…
10-23 00:28:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	64	48¢	$31	0xd3892e…
10-23 00:28:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0x509f5d…
10-23 00:28:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0xf5e481…
10-23 00:28:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xa05b35…
10-22 21:32:38	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0xfae4f3…