Realized P&L (30d)
+$83
Unrealized P&L
+$14
Hit rate
75.6%
Resolved (30d)
477
Trades (30d)
2,358
19,244 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$6.78K
$41.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$55
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-04 15:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 301 days
Categories
Other
61% 66% +$595
Politics
21% 71% +$304
Crypto
8% 63% +$46
Tech
5% 71% +$83
Sports
3% 59% +$37
Pop-Culture
2% 67% +$50
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 179 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? No -6 -$1 100¢ $-6 -$5 04-28 14:31
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes +14 $2 34¢ $5 +$2 11-03 23:44
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Yes +58 $3 5¢ $3 $0 11-04 01:29
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? Yes +10 $4 30¢ $3 -$1 10-29 21:08
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? Yes +27 $3 10¢ $3 -$1 11-04 08:14
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +9 $3 33¢ $3 -$1 10-29 23:22
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? No +41 -$3 6¢ $2 +$5 11-03 12:54
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Yes +60 $2 4¢ $2 +$1 11-01 08:58
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes +17 -$1 14¢ $2 +$3 11-04 07:41
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? Yes +36 $3 6¢ $2 -$1 10-15 23:18
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +2 $1 84¢ $2 +$1 08-23 17:30
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? Yes +35 -$5 6¢ $2 +$7 11-01 19:52
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? Yes +11 $4 18¢ $2 -$2 10-29 23:56
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? Yes +36 $3 5¢ $2 -$2 11-03 22:12
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +2 -$1 72¢ $2 +$2 08-28 06:00
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? Yes +10 $4 18¢ $2 -$2 10-23 21:24
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Yes +33 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 10-29 21:45
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No +6 $2 23¢ $1 -$1 10-29 21:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November? Yes +29 $3 4¢ $1 -$2 10-30 10:32
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December? Yes +17 -$3 6¢ $1 +$4 11-02 01:36
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 Yes +25 $4 4¢ $1 -$3 10-20 14:26
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes +26 $1 3¢ $1 +$0 11-01 10:14
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No +18 $3 4¢ $1 -$3 10-21 19:51
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? Yes +1 $0 74¢ $1 +$0 10-23 17:40
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? Yes — +11 -$3 6¢ $1 +$3 10-17 09:07
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? No +3 -$1 24¢ $1 +$1 10-29 20:47
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes +1 -$1 94¢ $1 +$2 08-21 21:02
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Yes +33 $2 2¢ $1 -$2 10-25 23:30
Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026? Yes -19 -$3 2¢ $-0 +$3 10-26 05:54
Israeli Knesset election annulled? Yes +13 -$2 3¢ $0 +$2 10-29 13:46