Realized P&L (30d)
+$460
Unrealized P&L
+$1.24K
Hit rate
99.8%
Resolved (30d)
5
Trades (30d)
20
198 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$7.28K
$67.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$338
Open exposure
$27.9K
18 positions
First seen
2026-01-27
last 11-12 04:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Politics
53% 61% +$951
Other
47% 89% +$319
Tech
0% 100% +$6
Crypto
0% 60% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
12 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No +8,015 $7,352 96¢ $7.7K +$303 10-14 00:56
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +5,259 $4,812 98¢ $5.1K +$331 08-06 00:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +3,277 $2,702 92¢ $3.0K +$329 10-29 02:51
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +2,174 $2,000 99¢ $2.1K +$143 07-10 16:47
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 No +2,167 $1,950 99¢ $2.1K +$187 07-10 16:47
China coup attempt before 2027? No +1,728 $1,677 98¢ $1.7K +$19 06-11 22:40
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +1,562 $1,500 97¢ $1.5K +$12 10-14 00:55
Trump out as President before 2027? No +1,268 $1,223 97¢ $1.2K +$11 11-02 06:08
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? No +940 $900 97¢ $915 +$15 11-02 06:08
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +793 $682 86¢ $678 -$4 11-12 04:58
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No +485 $404 94¢ $457 +$53 10-18 23:04
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No +413 $400 98¢ $406 +$6 11-02 06:09
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No +355 $346 98¢ $348 +$2 11-02 06:10
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No +323 $286 98¢ $317 +$31 06-11 22:39
Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? No +106 $100 97¢ $104 +$4 11-02 06:07
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +104 $100 98¢ $102 +$2 10-14 00:16
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No +191 $214 9¢ $17 -$197 10-25 21:52
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes +14 $10 2¢ $0 -$10 10-13 20:26