Crowded-Millstone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

4.8%

Resolved

Trades

3,639

lifetime

Volume

$233.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 08-11 15:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

61% 0% $-14

Politics

31% 100% +$26

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	60	$11.2K	6,400	5,669	+731	open	—	07-14 08:14
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	121	$6.5K	3,215	3,725	-510	Yes	$-11	04-27 03:18
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	8	$6.1K	3,087	3,087	+0	open	—	02-06 23:11
another us government shutdown by february 14	12	$5.7K	3,000	4,200	-1,200	open	—	02-13 05:43
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	46	$4.2K	2,699	2,146	+553	open	—	04-07 02:25
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	7	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-07 05:22
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	75	$3.8K	1,893	1,905	-12	open	—	06-12 02:44
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	18	$3.5K	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	05-20 00:52
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	74	$3.4K	17,882	17,882	+0	open	—	08-10 13:34
will gold gc hit low 3000 by end of march	5	$3.3K	1,658	1,658	+0	open	—	03-23 14:56
xauusd up or down on april 10 2026	19	$3.3K	1,638	1,638	+0	open	—	04-14 23:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	68	$3.2K	3,484	3,784	-300	open	—	05-31 14:33
will gold gc hit low 3600 by end of march	10	$2.9K	1,360	1,755	-395	open	—	03-23 11:11
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	26	$2.9K	4,973	4,973	+0	open	—	08-04 06:07
will bitcoin dip to 45k in february 2026 429 933 793	8	$2.7K	1,373	1,373	+0	open	—	02-02 03:21
will trn lu quang be the next prime minister of vietnam	27	$2.6K	1,313	1,413	-100	open	—	04-07 08:09
will iran strike turkey in march	30	$2.6K	1,457	1,557	-100	open	—	03-24 10:42
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	11	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-26 10:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	33	$2.1K	1,000	1,100	-100	open	—	03-22 00:40
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	2	$2.1K	1,058	1,058	+0	open	—	02-01 01:34
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	44	$2.0K	1,280	1,380	-100	open	—	03-12 08:57
will solana dip to 90 in january 2026	3	$2.0K	1,003	1,003	+0	open	—	02-01 01:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	16	$1.9K	1,300	900	+400	open	—	05-24 04:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	28	$1.9K	1,694	1,300	+394	open	—	06-15 14:40
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	25	$1.9K	1,650	1,650	+0	open	—	03-24 15:22
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	27	$1.9K	1,187	1,341	-153	open	—	03-23 04:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	17	$1.9K	1,300	1,200	+100	open	—	06-26 16:13
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	40	$1.8K	1,269	1,364	-95	open	—	03-18 17:01
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	24	$1.8K	700	1,100	-400	No	$-4	04-24 14:04
spx opens up or down on april 16 2026	1	$1.7K	1,728	0	+1,728	open	—	04-16 13:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 01:32:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x03f256…
08-12 01:32:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xfad948…
08-12 01:31:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x0c9f41…
08-12 01:31:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x6d84aa…
08-12 01:30:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x31a7da…
08-12 01:30:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x875e26…
08-11 15:54:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	144	72¢	$103	0xe8a1d8…
08-11 15:36:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	76	43¢	$33	0xce0314…
08-11 15:31:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	68	71¢	$48	0x846022…
08-11 15:31:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	224	43¢	$96	0xe3f4d2…
08-11 15:30:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x608ed7…
08-11 15:30:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xdba83a…
08-11 14:33:24	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x5bf74c…
08-11 14:31:21	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xd2914a…
08-11 14:18:54	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xb25beb…
08-11 14:16:19	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x45e495…
08-11 11:52:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	697	13¢	$91	0xb3fde2…
08-11 11:36:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	SELL	472	72¢	$340	0x65dc3f…
08-11 11:35:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	SELL	28	73¢	$20	0x34c4ee…
08-11 09:15:31	will xauusd reach 4500 in august 2026	No	BUY	205	40¢	$82	0x52999e…
08-11 09:09:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0xf6f36b…
08-11 09:09:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	400	75¢	$300	0x1b4631…
08-11 09:09:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x0a5569…
08-11 08:55:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	SELL	300	30¢	$90	0xc98461…
08-11 01:43:58	will gold gc hit high 5000 by end of december 2026	No	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0x8d5465…
08-11 01:22:22	will xauusd reach 4700 in august 2026	No	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0x6132ae…
08-11 00:50:18	will xauusd reach 4700 in august 2026	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0xa67dd7…
08-11 00:49:34	will xauusd reach 4700 in august 2026	No	BUY	68	69¢	$47	0x7df0c9…
08-10 13:34:03	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	SELL	4,000	10¢	$400	0x8bef5a…
08-10 02:18:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	SELL	472	99¢	$466	0xbdf660…
08-10 01:24:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xddb3fa…
08-09 15:31:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xc27820…
08-09 15:26:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	174	95¢	$165	0x6e33d6…
08-09 15:25:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	69	24¢	$17	0xe5828d…
08-09 14:41:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0xe43bf0…
08-09 12:13:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x4df0ff…
08-09 12:09:00	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	300	48¢	$144	0x039cdf…
08-09 12:07:36	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	241	66¢	$159	0x901969…
08-09 11:59:24	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	SELL	300	49¢	$147	0xecdc32…
08-09 11:49:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xf08493…
08-09 11:35:57	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	281	39¢	$110	0x69be06…
08-09 11:35:06	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	41	82¢	$34	0x5a5296…
08-09 11:34:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	19	39¢	$7	0x878d66…
08-09 11:32:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	SELL	82	94¢	$77	0x05be89…
08-09 10:28:25	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0xbe5549…
08-09 10:25:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0x703a7f…
08-09 10:15:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	SELL	421	98¢	$412	0xfb5e1f…
08-09 10:05:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x57b909…
08-09 10:01:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x10bbc3…
08-09 09:51:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	177	82¢	$145	0xa151e8…
08-09 08:56:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	86	8¢	$7	0xc3c0c1…
08-09 08:49:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x4cbfd4…
08-09 08:10:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x1c2554…
08-09 08:05:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x8826e2…
08-09 08:04:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x81027d…
08-09 08:03:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x11817d…
08-09 08:03:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x5ec1b9…
08-09 07:49:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x52f310…
08-09 07:45:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xc40c1b…
08-09 07:41:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x988a76…
08-09 07:13:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	43	82¢	$35	0xb6394c…
08-09 07:13:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x6da8a3…
08-09 07:12:36	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	SELL	136	31¢	$42	0x571b1d…
08-09 07:00:52	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	74	83¢	$62	0x465e0d…
08-09 07:00:42	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x33d932…
08-09 06:34:31	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	SELL	30	31¢	$9	0xd3958b…
08-09 06:31:13	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0xffb60f…
08-09 06:17:06	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	5	83¢	$5	0xa5eba7…
08-09 06:14:00	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	SELL	135	31¢	$42	0x2b78d0…
08-09 06:02:27	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0x9e0afe…
08-09 06:01:43	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0x07ba8d…
08-09 05:52:25	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0xe64845…
08-09 05:52:24	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0x952cb1…
08-09 05:52:24	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	64	83¢	$53	0x872fb0…
08-09 05:31:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xb1063b…
08-09 04:49:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xb36a9a…
08-09 04:40:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	17	82¢	$14	0xb4a9c9…
08-09 04:25:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0xec40c0…
08-09 00:10:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x3a2c47…
08-08 16:31:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0x75658c…
08-08 16:28:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x6dd848…
08-08 16:28:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x73f183…
08-08 16:27:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x5d2e65…
08-08 16:18:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	87	84¢	$73	0x8ac73f…
08-08 16:06:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	13	84¢	$11	0x5376c8…
08-08 14:05:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x1d3fa1…
08-08 14:04:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xac6934…
08-08 13:55:16	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	41	68¢	$28	0xebabd7…
08-08 13:53:52	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0xc4ae29…
08-08 13:52:33	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x8891f0…
08-08 10:54:24	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xcbc7a5…
08-08 10:51:51	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0xd83765…
08-08 10:21:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	52	57¢	$29	0x805336…
08-08 10:17:54	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x084ee7…
08-08 10:15:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x3b48a3…
08-08 10:13:21	lol lgd al 2026 08 08 game1	LGD Gaming	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0xad5b98…
08-08 10:08:49	lol lgd al 2026 08 08 game1	LGD Gaming	BUY	30	47¢	$14	0x9503bd…
08-08 10:08:12	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf00b95…
08-08 09:52:37	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	BUY	131	61¢	$80	0x77b361…
08-08 09:51:37	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	150	55¢	$82	0xaa0c96…