Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?
open
Total volume
$481
Trades
31
Unique wallets
15
Liquidity
$4,340
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-31
last 08-04 14:15
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+93.0¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $16
vs crowd: 7% YES on $467)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $17 | $224 | $207 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | $1 | $2 | $0 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | — | $206 | $206 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 5 | $14 | $3 | +$10 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $16 | — | +$16 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| Median | 4 | $2 | $6 | $3 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $5 | $5 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | — | $220 | $220 |
| unranked | 6 | $13 | $205 | $192 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondra 0x849c…4009 | Yes | +377 | $16 | $16 | 8 | 08-04 14:15 |
| Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | +231 | $220 | $220 | 1 | 07-12 18:23 |
| Sweaty-Background 0xb626…2138 | No | +211 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-30 08:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +28 | $1 | $2 | 2 | 07-15 16:52 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +21 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 08:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xf9ea…7b04 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 20:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | +6 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-04 14:15 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-30 22:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-08 06:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-30 20:02 |
| That-Percent 0xb5c4…cb3b | No | +1 | $1 | $3 | 2 | 07-29 22:09 |
| Subdued-Ascot 0x0637…1e31 | No | +1 | $1 | $6 | 2 | 07-08 06:36 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 14:15:38 | Ondra 0x849c…4009 | Yes | BUY | 133 | 4¢ | $5 | 0x436d41… |
| 08-04 14:15:38 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x436d41… |
| 08-04 14:15:38 | (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | SELL | 199 | 4¢ | $8 | 0x436d41… |
| 07-30 22:45:17 | Ondra 0x849c…4009 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x8899cc… |
| 07-30 22:45:17 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x8899cc… |
| 07-29 22:09:08 | (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x19dd6a… |
| 07-29 22:09:08 | That-Percent 0xb5c4…cb3b | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x19dd6a… |
| 07-15 16:52:55 | Ripe-Pod 0xd038…3142 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x554cf2… |
| 07-15 16:52:55 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x554cf2… |
| 07-13 07:10:31 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xb19bb9… |
| 07-13 07:10:31 | Ondra 0x849c…4009 | Yes | BUY | 35 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xb19bb9… |
| 07-12 18:23:07 | (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | BUY | 200 | 5¢ | $10 | 0x7c6b18… |
| 07-12 18:23:07 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x7c6b18… |
| 07-12 18:23:07 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | BUY | 231 | 95¢ | $220 | 0x7c6b18… |
| 07-08 06:36:44 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 3 | 92¢ | $3 | 0x739888… |
| 07-08 06:36:44 | Subdued-Ascot 0x0637…1e31 | No | SELL | 3 | 92¢ | $3 | 0x739888… |
| 07-08 06:30:56 | Subdued-Ascot 0x0637…1e31 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xa7fb5b… |
| 07-08 06:30:56 | Ondra 0x849c…4009 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa7fb5b… |
| 07-04 14:07:10 | Capital-Eviction 0xf769…0114 | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0xcb3587… |
| 07-04 14:07:10 | That-Percent 0xb5c4…cb3b | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0xcb3587… |
| 06-30 20:02:08 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | BUY | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0x02c856… |
| 06-30 20:02:08 | (anonymous) 0xf9ea…7b04 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x02c856… |
| 06-30 20:02:08 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x02c856… |
| 06-30 08:34:28 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x73770f… |
| 06-30 08:34:28 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x73770f… |
| 06-30 08:34:28 | Sweaty-Background 0xb626…2138 | No | BUY | 211 | 95¢ | $200 | 0x73770f… |
| 06-30 08:34:28 | Ondra 0x849c…4009 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x73770f… |
| 06-30 08:34:28 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x73770f… |
| 06-30 08:34:28 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x73770f… |
| 05-31 04:35:55 | Ondra 0x849c…4009 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x2e020d… |
| 05-31 04:35:55 | Ripe-Pod 0xd038…3142 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x2e020d… |