Realized P&L (90d)
+$7.08K
Unrealized P&L
+$3.19K
Hit rate
96.6%
Resolved (90d)
15
Trades (90d)
1
51,500 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$95
$13.8M lifetime
Avg / trade
$268
Open exposure
$158.9K
19 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 08-20 08:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 121 days
Categories
Politics
52%
81%
-$526,744
Other
47%
92%
+$77,032
Crypto
1%
100%
+$493
Tech
0%
90%
+$315
Pop-Culture
0%
100%
+$159
Sports
0%
33%
-$19
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-20).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | -55,518 | -$50,525 | 98¢ | $-54325 | -$3,800 | 06-28 08:46 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -30,423 | -$27,714 | 97¢ | $-29632 | -$1,917 | 07-02 15:54 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +21,698 | $18,053 | 97¢ | $21.1K | +$3,005 | 08-10 11:56 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | -17,858 | -$12,734 | 94¢ | $-16759 | -$4,025 | 07-08 10:00 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +16,081 | $10,340 | 98¢ | $15.7K | +$5,355 | 07-28 13:07 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +8,692 | $5,181 | 94¢ | $8.1K | +$2,946 | 07-17 20:01 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | -3,959 | -$3,787 | 98¢ | $-3893 | -$106 | 08-10 17:29 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | +2,546 | $1,686 | 92¢ | $2.3K | +$657 | 07-11 06:43 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +2,203 | $1,889 | 98¢ | $2.2K | +$262 | 08-14 04:12 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -2,176 | -$2,146 | 98¢ | $-2142 | +$4 | 07-04 04:55 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +1,788 | $1,566 | 98¢ | $1.8K | +$191 | 08-20 08:38 | |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | -486 | -$432 | 98¢ | $-474 | -$42 | 07-14 13:17 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +180 | $144 | 98¢ | $175 | +$31 | 06-05 11:34 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | +150 | $124 | 97¢ | $146 | +$21 | 06-17 12:56 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | +94 | $81 | 92¢ | $86 | +$5 | 07-11 00:00 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | +160 | $71 | 50¢ | $80 | +$9 | 06-20 20:07 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | -65 | -$63 | 98¢ | $-64 | -$1 | 07-15 10:21 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +0 | -$66 | 99¢ | $0 | +$67 | 07-07 19:36 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | +0 | -$531 | 98¢ | $0 | +$531 | 06-11 21:20 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 151 | $1.10M | 707,840 | 393,983 | +313,857 | Yes | +$1,058 | 02-04 00:36 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 476 | $651.8K | 659,147 | 0 | +659,147 | No | +$7,394 | 04-01 08:55 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 2,610 | $600.0K | 441,350 | 190,385 | +250,966 | No | +$7,976 | 04-25 02:02 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 1 | $498.5K | 500,000 | 0 | +500,000 | Yes | +$1,500 | 04-07 09:46 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 1,148 | $477.8K | 259,946 | 226,077 | +33,869 | Yes | -$3,311 | 05-07 06:11 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 646 | $335.1K | 358,786 | 234,787 | +123,999 | Yes | -$209,653 | 03-02 10:18 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 81 | $288.3K | 279,468 | 10,000 | +269,468 | No | +$1,088 | 01-03 20:48 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 245 | $260.9K | 273,870 | 0 | +273,870 | Yes | +$12,966 | 03-10 21:27 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 170 | $250.0K | 252,542 | 0 | +252,542 | Yes | +$2,542 | 06-16 16:16 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 1,042 | $242.9K | 132,056 | 133,668 | -1,612 | No | +$22,252 | 06-30 02:43 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 234 | $230.9K | 123,952 | 118,425 | +5,527 | Yes | +$470 | 01-20 14:59 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 72 | $210.3K | 211,000 | 0 | +211,000 | Yes | +$712 | 03-04 16:31 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 148 | $200.5K | 35,425 | 167,367 | -131,942 | No | +$1,343 | 06-25 16:12 |
| new stranger things episode released by january 31 294 | 123 | $185.4K | 93,691 | 92,999 | +692 | No | +$658 | 01-27 02:42 |
| will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 1,150 | $183.1K | 186,228 | 0 | +186,228 | Yes | +$3,108 | 02-06 09:20 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 574 | $181.8K | 220,592 | 0 | +220,592 | No | +$38,784 | 01-31 23:51 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 549 | $180.6K | 206,693 | 111,349 | +95,344 | Yes | -$84,187 | 03-04 00:39 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 1,629 | $177.5K | 193,596 | 1,503 | +192,093 | No | +$16,728 | 03-22 10:05 |
| us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525 | 2 | $169.3K | 170,000 | 0 | +170,000 | No | +$700 | 02-12 15:35 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | 283 | $163.4K | 102,603 | 104,408 | -1,805 | No | +$1,207 | 02-20 05:44 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | 222 | $159.9K | 80,176 | 80,176 | +0 | No | -$50 | 02-21 00:50 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 495 | $154.8K | 149,538 | 20,000 | +129,538 | No | +$7,497 | 01-31 15:41 |
| earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times | 5 | $149.8K | 100,000 | 49,950 | +50,050 | Yes | +$50 | 01-23 18:35 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 637 | $147.8K | 150,306 | 12,000 | +138,307 | No | +$11,938 | 03-22 08:42 |
| will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 462 | $137.1K | 139,501 | 0 | +139,501 | No | +$2,426 | 02-06 09:27 |
| us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931 | 22 | $134.7K | 135,360 | 0 | +135,360 | No | +$679 | 02-13 12:56 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 45 | $134.2K | 155,000 | 0 | +155,000 | Yes | -$134,200 | 02-27 18:06 |
| us strikes iran by february 15 2026 | 36 | $123.2K | 124,331 | 0 | +124,331 | No | +$1,167 | 02-15 12:37 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 352 | $118.9K | 114,319 | 10,000 | +104,319 | No | +$4,469 | 05-11 14:50 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 695 | $118.1K | 169,729 | 40,000 | +129,729 | Yes | -$82,129 | 02-27 10:01 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||