Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206ce…231362
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$37
Unrealized P&L
+$513
Hit rate
56.9%
Resolved
5
Trades
391
lifetime
Volume
$18.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$48
Open exposure
$2.26K
26 positions
First seen
2026-04-13
last 07-16 15:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
68% 50% +$36
Politics
16% 100% +$2
Sports
14% — —
Pop-Culture
2% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
29 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No +1,065 $537 77¢ $820 +$282 07-16 15:11
Will Shelley Hughes advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No -326 $-310 96¢ $-312 $-2 05-28 08:00
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? No -332 $-300 90¢ $-300 $-0 07-16 15:33
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No +212 $130 99¢ $210 +$80 06-27 20:21
Blue wave in 2026? No -445 $-123 24¢ $-109 +$14 06-01 08:11
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No +100 $83 92¢ $92 +$9 07-01 20:01
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? No -58 $-45 82¢ $-47 $-3 05-28 10:31
Will the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year? No -38 $-34 94¢ $-36 $-1 05-28 10:01
Will Will Sawin win the 2026 Fields Medal? No +35 $28 99¢ $35 +$7 06-01 19:37
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes +207 $32 16¢ $33 +$1 07-01 18:20
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes -1,282 $-109 2¢ $-31 +$77 06-30 15:14
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027? No +35 $28 88¢ $31 +$3 06-02 20:28
Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year? No +32 $25 94¢ $30 +$6 06-01 18:24
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +31 $23 96¢ $30 +$7 07-01 12:05
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? No +27 $19 98¢ $26 +$7 06-25 18:41
Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal? No +26 $19 98¢ $26 +$7 06-25 22:42
Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No +22 $16 98¢ $21 +$5 06-01 18:57
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes +100 $22 20¢ $20 $-2 06-30 04:37
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +21 $12 96¢ $20 +$8 07-01 12:04
Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year? Yes +56 $14 26¢ $15 +$0 07-01 18:58
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No -14 $-9 70¢ $-10 $-0 06-12 09:15
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes -5 $-9 66¢ $-3 +$6 06-26 03:16
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? Yes +12 $2 16¢ $2 $-0 06-28 12:28
Will Alexander Efimov win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +25 $1 2¢ $1 $-1 06-26 03:02
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +0 $-2 66¢ $0 +$2 06-29 14:15
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +0 $-0 86¢ $0 +$1 06-29 14:13