Realized P&L (90d)
-$171
Unrealized P&L
+$2.22K
Hit rate
8.7%
Resolved (90d)
9
Trades (90d)
1,358
2,661 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$67.2K
$120.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$45
Open exposure
$93.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-10 10:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Politics
47% 33% -$307
Other
36% 11% -$192
Sports
15% 64% +$1,060
Crypto
3% — —
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
56 active days in 12wk • peak 74 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +17,367 $16,769 99¢ $17.2K +$416 09-20 07:30
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +9,375 $8,930 95¢ $8.9K -$29 09-19 00:16
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +7,388 $7,138 99¢ $7.3K +$147 09-20 12:58
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +6,306 $5,473 98¢ $6.2K +$735 07-07 07:44
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +5,074 $4,849 100¢ $5.1K +$220 09-20 17:26
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +5,049 $4,860 97¢ $4.9K +$35 11-07 16:06
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +4,481 $4,323 99¢ $4.4K +$102 11-06 20:14
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +4,693 $3,934 90¢ $4.2K +$287 10-30 06:27
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +4,072 $3,754 98¢ $4.0K +$243 09-10 04:27
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +3,580 $3,446 96¢ $3.4K -$22 11-07 14:50
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No +3,761 $3,291 86¢ $3.3K -$38 09-15 22:56
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +2,958 $2,895 99¢ $2.9K +$41 11-06 18:53
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +3,199 $2,740 86¢ $2.7K $0 11-06 02:59
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No +2,064 $1,986 99¢ $2.0K +$52 08-04 16:53
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +1,863 $1,719 95¢ $1.8K +$48 09-02 22:13
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +1,797 $1,749 97¢ $1.7K -$4 11-09 08:58
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No +1,715 $1,588 98¢ $1.7K +$87 08-05 18:29
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No +1,571 $1,539 98¢ $1.5K +$3 11-09 15:21
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +1,482 $1,406 94¢ $1.4K -$6 11-08 18:07
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +1,387 $1,336 98¢ $1.4K +$25 11-09 05:50
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No +1,378 $1,264 94¢ $1.3K +$24 08-20 08:15
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +1,264 $1,166 98¢ $1.2K +$71 07-25 09:43
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +1,198 $1,169 97¢ $1.2K -$3 08-21 05:41
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +1,283 $1,122 87¢ $1.1K -$10 09-04 16:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +677 $630 98¢ $666 +$36 07-10 04:36
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +3,761 $469 14¢ $508 +$39 09-21 09:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +500 $458 97¢ $484 +$26 10-21 21:02
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +9,375 $471 5¢ $473 +$2 09-20 17:31
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +4,693 $768 10¢ $472 -$296 10-30 11:39
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +3,199 $474 14¢ $459 -$15 11-07 10:10