Realized P&L
+$561
Unrealized P&L
+$2.39K
Hit rate
22.9%
Resolved
41
Trades
2,917
lifetime
Volume
$138.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$47
Open exposure
$97.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-15 21:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 19 days
Categories
Politics
47% 40% -$307
Other
36% 11% -$192
Sports
15% 64% +$1,060
Crypto
3% — —
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
55 active days in 12wk • peak 74 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +17,367 $16,769 99¢ $17.2K +$416 09-20 07:30
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +9,375 $8,930 96¢ $9.0K +$46 09-19 00:16
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +7,388 $7,138 99¢ $7.3K +$158 09-20 12:58
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +6,306 $5,473 99¢ $6.2K +$748 07-07 07:44
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +5,901 $5,685 97¢ $5.7K +$18 11-11 13:46
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +5,157 $4,990 98¢ $5.1K +$79 11-13 18:13
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +5,074 $4,849 100¢ $5.1K +$220 09-20 17:26
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +4,693 $3,934 90¢ $4.2K +$278 10-30 06:27
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +4,072 $3,754 98¢ $4.0K +$257 09-10 04:27
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +4,124 $3,969 96¢ $4.0K -$12 11-13 14:18
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No +3,761 $3,291 86¢ $3.3K -$38 09-15 22:56
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +2,958 $2,895 98¢ $2.9K +$3 11-06 18:53
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +3,199 $2,740 87¢ $2.8K +$30 11-06 02:59
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No +2,064 $1,986 98¢ $2.0K +$43 08-04 16:53
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +2,053 $1,998 97¢ $2.0K -$9 11-12 04:15
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +1,863 $1,719 95¢ $1.8K +$55 09-02 22:13
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +1,809 $1,748 98¢ $1.8K +$22 11-15 17:05
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No +1,715 $1,588 98¢ $1.7K +$86 08-05 18:29
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +1,747 $1,657 95¢ $1.7K -$3 11-12 21:43
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No +1,608 $1,575 99¢ $1.6K +$18 11-13 18:30
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No +1,378 $1,264 96¢ $1.3K +$65 08-20 08:15
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +1,264 $1,166 98¢ $1.2K +$68 07-25 09:43
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +1,198 $1,169 97¢ $1.2K -$5 08-21 05:41
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +1,283 $1,122 90¢ $1.2K +$33 09-04 16:43
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No +793 $765 97¢ $767 +$1 11-15 15:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +677 $630 98¢ $663 +$33 07-10 04:36
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? No +729 $562 77¢ $562 +$0 11-15 21:47
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +3,761 $469 14¢ $508 +$39 09-21 09:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +500 $458 96¢ $481 +$23 10-21 21:02
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +4,693 $768 10¢ $481 -$287 10-30 11:39