Whimsical-Defender — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$36

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.8%

Resolved

Trades

6,290

lifetime

Volume

$29.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 07-14 08:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

45% 37% $-10

Politics

30% 33% $-9

Sports

24% 0% $-18

Crypto

1% 33% +$1

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 384 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	146	$766	1,585	0	+1,585	open	—	06-15 02:40
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	111	$575	1,185	0	+1,185	open	—	06-13 15:57
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	82	$499	966	7	+959	open	—	06-22 11:17
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	66	$419	804	0	+804	open	—	06-15 16:32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	66	$408	805	0	+805	open	—	06-13 15:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	60	$354	696	14	+682	open	—	06-22 13:40
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	45	$304	528	44	+484	open	—	06-16 07:27
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	54	$297	594	0	+594	open	—	06-13 15:54
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	60	$283	575	0	+575	open	—	06-16 09:07
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	55	$281	590	0	+590	open	—	06-13 07:20
us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	41	$250	490	0	+490	open	—	06-15 16:30
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	45	$248	8,050	8,050	+0	open	—	05-09 19:16
will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	18	$226	510	0	+510	open	—	07-09 00:13
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	33	$207	418	0	+418	open	—	06-15 02:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	31	$202	387	7	+380	open	—	06-15 15:38
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	29	$193	359	0	+359	open	—	06-11 00:54
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	11	$181	330	30	+300	open	—	07-13 11:56
nba cha nyk 2026 04 12	17	$177	137	123	+15	open	—	04-11 21:00
lal rea ala 2026 04 21 ala	8	$163	87	86	+1	open	—	04-21 20:14
nba cle mem 2026 04 06	12	$162	95	94	+1	open	—	04-06 18:45
ufc gil1 mik9 2026 04 18	22	$161	125	114	+11	open	—	04-17 23:56
lal bil osa 2026 04 21 draw	22	$160	113	111	+2	open	—	04-21 19:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	29	$157	321	15	+306	open	—	07-13 12:44
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	29	$156	304	63	+241	open	—	06-22 11:20
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	23	$156	285	0	+285	open	—	06-18 05:40
ufc den2 mar91 2026 04 18	23	$152	130	114	+16	open	—	04-18 09:50
Trump out as President by June 30?	6	$150	300	0	+300	open	—	06-28 14:13
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	52	$150	300	0	+300	open	—	06-09 22:51
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	31	$145	326	15	+311	open	—	06-19 01:58
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	31	$144	367	36	+331	open	—	06-15 12:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 08:10:13	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xa74125…
07-14 07:11:19	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0xfeea08…
07-14 07:03:56	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0xbf95e8…
07-14 07:03:41	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xd2edc5…
07-14 07:03:31	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0xcabe31…
07-14 07:03:08	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x36efc6…
07-14 07:02:56	will recep tayyip erdogan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950080	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xd0053d…
07-14 07:02:53	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x4475ac…
07-14 07:02:50	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x43dc87…
07-14 07:02:49	will mojtaba khamenei sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950074	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x58e8d8…
07-14 07:00:20	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$0	0x3e1ccd…
07-14 07:00:14	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0xc363cc…
07-14 06:59:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0xb8b31d…
07-14 06:59:37	James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0xa189b0…
07-14 06:59:31	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x849e0d…
07-14 06:59:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x4aa51e…
07-14 06:59:26	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x49bdcf…
07-14 06:59:20	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0xe7a53c…
07-14 06:59:14	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xf03647…
07-14 06:59:10	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x3c2002…
07-14 06:59:07	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0xab6de1…
07-14 06:59:02	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xda9986…
07-14 06:58:59	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x64cc67…
07-14 06:58:56	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0xd91907…
07-14 06:58:53	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0xe8ce8a…
07-14 06:58:29	will king abdullah ii sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950084	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x21a06d…
07-13 12:48:02	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x9fa1ab…
07-13 12:47:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x05fcf9…
07-13 12:47:53	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0xabe0ee…
07-13 12:45:46	SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x9036f2…
07-13 12:44:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0xe3ce69…
07-13 12:44:17	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	19¢	$2	0x5b69ae…
07-13 12:44:10	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0xc0a67d…
07-13 12:43:49	EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	11¢	$2	0x7f46c5…
07-13 12:43:43	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xbf4e1f…
07-13 12:43:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0xe87dad…
07-13 12:43:32	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xbda820…
07-13 12:30:44	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	7¢	$4	0x1aba01…
07-13 12:30:32	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	101	3¢	$3	0xb40eec…
07-13 12:30:13	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x8ebe59…
07-13 12:23:22	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0x40c5b6…
07-13 12:23:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0xf305f6…
07-13 12:23:01	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x4f585c…
07-13 12:22:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x95ed08…
07-13 12:22:44	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	24	20¢	$5	0xd85cf3…
07-13 12:22:23	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xb1d329…
07-13 12:22:19	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0x439eeb…
07-13 12:22:16	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	No	SELL	12	49¢	$6	0xed1fbb…
07-13 12:22:07	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0x5fb8b8…
07-13 12:21:58	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0x08c3db…
07-13 12:21:56	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	60	11¢	$7	0xd570ce…
07-13 12:21:49	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0xf7c5d1…
07-13 12:01:07	will mishal al ahmad al jaber al sabah sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950083	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x4a9bdb…
07-13 12:00:02	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xfe6df8…
07-13 12:00:01	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xfb0385…
07-13 11:56:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x08f0ca…
07-13 11:56:25	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0xf78ace…
07-13 11:56:19	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xb7b07a…
07-13 11:56:14	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0xbbde67…
07-13 11:55:52	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x1d681d…
07-13 11:39:46	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0x406f38…
07-13 11:39:38	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x2150c1…
07-13 11:39:34	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xb05b75…
07-13 11:38:59	will jordan bardella advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x865ee4…
07-13 11:38:31	Brex IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,100	1¢	$9	0x204d5c…
07-11 10:59:17	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0xa618ec…
07-10 22:47:19	will king abdullah ii sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950084	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x779a43…
07-10 02:16:44	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	SELL	7	89¢	$6	0xa1c6ae…
07-09 06:34:29	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xcdb14b…
07-09 00:13:16	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	No	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xad8e51…
07-09 00:11:37	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	No	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x606fb1…
07-09 00:11:28	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	No	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xdeb8f9…
07-08 23:23:25	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x50fdfb…
07-08 22:24:05	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x5d77db…
07-08 20:36:37	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x7ad632…
07-08 20:15:22	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x220d9e…
07-08 20:15:17	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	No	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x4832d0…
07-08 18:31:08	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	No	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0xa0a7ef…
07-08 18:06:26	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	No	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x618b60…
07-08 17:57:25	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0xee1b49…
07-08 17:09:31	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x9b79a3…
07-08 17:01:01	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	8	91¢	$8	0x81cbbc…
07-08 15:32:16	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x64cc98…
07-08 15:31:50	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0xb7ee9c…
07-08 15:17:35	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x4ae343…
07-08 15:02:41	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xc8b2e3…
07-08 14:19:01	Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xcb4073…
07-08 14:12:25	Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xb7c4d1…
07-08 14:09:58	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	No	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x0bb3c5…
07-08 14:05:20	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xbbbd91…
07-08 14:03:58	will jordan bardella advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x24a44c…
07-08 13:01:58	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xe07e58…
07-08 13:01:58	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x4de75b…
07-08 12:09:40	will graham platner drop out by july 9	No	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0xf56544…
07-08 10:45:50	will graham platner drop out by july 9	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xeae1e8…
07-08 07:46:10	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0x8e1c6b…
07-08 05:47:25	will jordan bardella advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x733be8…
07-08 05:02:40	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x339a51…
07-08 01:22:26	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xf6e63f…
07-08 01:02:01	will graham platner drop out by july 9	Yes	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x3e9128…