Past-Polish — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.7%

Resolved

Trades

653

lifetime

Volume

$3.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 11:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

60% 100% +$2

Politics

34% 75% +$1

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	14	$80	42	42	+0	open	—	03-27 09:49
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	13	$77	44	36	+7	open	—	04-27 09:45
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	14	$74	40	40	+0	open	—	04-28 03:36
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	11	$65	34	39	-6	open	—	03-27 09:45
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 280 299	3	$58	50	10	+40	open	—	01-29 10:02
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	6	$55	39	47	-8	open	—	04-08 11:43
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	12	$55	26	31	-5	open	—	03-30 02:56
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	8	$47	26	26	+0	open	—	04-28 03:23
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	8	$44	25	25	+0	open	—	04-28 03:36
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	9	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	03-23 06:24
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	8	$38	22	22	+0	open	—	08-04 16:39
Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026?	5	$30	19	19	+0	open	—	04-29 06:10
will openai have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	6	$30	15	20	-5	open	—	03-06 10:07
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?	4	$29	16	24	-8	No	+$2	04-27 10:38
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	4	$29	18	18	+0	open	—	07-28 17:55
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	9	$29	15	15	+0	open	—	06-26 08:55
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	4	$28	16	16	+0	open	—	08-03 07:08
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	4	$28	18	18	+0	open	—	06-29 07:07
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	4	$27	25	25	+0	open	—	07-14 07:59
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	4	$27	17	17	+0	open	—	07-29 14:05
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	6	$27	21	21	+0	open	—	04-28 06:13
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	4	$27	14	14	+0	open	—	08-07 08:20
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	5	$26	15	15	+0	open	—	07-10 03:03
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	5	$25	13	13	+0	open	—	08-12 06:36
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	6	$25	17	17	+0	open	—	07-14 07:20
Discord IPO before 2027?	6	$25	19	19	+0	open	—	07-20 06:43
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	4	$25	13	13	+0	open	—	04-27 06:40
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	4	$24	13	13	+0	open	—	08-12 10:11
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	4	$24	18	18	+1	open	—	07-28 10:51
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	4	$22	10	16	-5	open	—	04-01 08:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 14:40:19	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$0	0x1506ef…
08-12 11:15:00	russia elections united russia wins every region	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x0818fe…
08-12 10:11:18	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x5bcae8…
08-12 06:36:46	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xd62005…
08-12 05:09:31	will piers morgan attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630255	No	BUY	7	92¢	$7	0x2b5537…
08-10 07:31:28	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0xdea7de…
08-07 08:20:22	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$6	0x4b92ea…
08-07 08:02:49	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x1f94d0…
08-07 07:37:19	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0x60382e…
08-07 03:44:01	will zohran mamdani be time person of the year 2026	No	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0x063dd9…
08-07 03:35:12	will zohran mamdani be time person of the year 2026	No	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0xca1c4b…
08-05 08:38:53	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x7ca6f7…
08-05 07:55:17	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xcea88c…
08-05 04:50:12	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x3f03eb…
08-05 03:38:44	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xddc33d…
08-04 17:55:08	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x6dff61…
08-04 16:39:50	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0xa24188…
08-04 13:24:42	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x27ac3a…
08-04 06:03:24	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0xf6bf01…
08-04 02:47:20	Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x716364…
08-03 07:08:48	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0xf31ba4…
08-03 04:03:57	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xa0de4b…
07-31 11:09:48	Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xbaedbd…
07-30 12:19:03	will zohran mamdani be time person of the year 2026	No	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0xee74b8…
07-29 14:05:57	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	SELL	9	70¢	$6	0x93cf63…
07-29 12:12:20	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x1f0991…
07-29 12:08:27	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x8a1868…
07-29 12:06:29	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xe03d4c…
07-29 10:22:24	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x03005b…
07-28 17:55:14	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0x76e8cb…
07-28 15:50:35	us saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026 20260722230956508	No	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0x05d462…
07-28 15:33:22	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xccfdf8…
07-28 15:10:47	will netanyahu wear a yarmulke at next meeting with trump 20260724180650962	No	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0xf59625…
07-28 14:47:50	will netanyahu wear a yarmulke at next meeting with trump 20260724180650962	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xe840ed…
07-28 10:51:59	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	9	67¢	$6	0x756de9…
07-27 14:24:10	New pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0x9e3312…
07-27 09:48:45	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x0f0b60…
07-27 09:38:42	will the republic of the congo have an ebola case in 2026	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0xa9a693…
07-24 07:50:58	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x571333…
07-24 07:49:46	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x05506d…
07-24 06:07:18	us saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026 20260722230956508	No	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x60fdb1…
07-24 02:05:34	Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0x1a2c12…
07-23 09:33:51	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	No	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0x00f17b…
07-23 09:17:39	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	No	SELL	12	59¢	$7	0xafc838…
07-23 03:53:09	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	No	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0xf3207b…
07-23 03:09:00	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x6adaf4…
07-22 09:27:06	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x2f1e93…
07-21 02:55:04	Elon Bull Run Parlay	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xe9aa03…
07-20 06:59:00	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0x89f311…
07-20 06:43:48	Discord IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0xf9fc62…
07-20 02:58:33	will trump meet with elon musk in july 2026 20260626153701913	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x6592b2…
07-19 18:17:22	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	11	64¢	$7	0x3ec4f3…
07-19 16:35:43	Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?	No	BUY	9	81¢	$7	0x50302d…
07-18 18:35:15	ibm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 22 2026 3pt02	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xeed9e5…
07-18 15:21:37	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x6fbb97…
07-18 14:25:58	Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xdb9232…
07-18 13:30:45	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0xd04d6a…
07-18 13:16:36	Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?	No	SELL	8	86¢	$6	0x3038e2…
07-18 13:15:54	Discord IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0xfc8a41…
07-18 13:04:18	Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xdd52c1…
07-18 12:55:49	Discord IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x61ae2f…
07-18 12:13:36	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0xdde6d8…
07-18 11:06:33	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0xe78bb8…
07-18 10:41:49	Elon Bull Run Parlay	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xbeec52…
07-18 10:31:54	will the republic of the congo have an ebola case in 2026	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x45cb50…
07-17 08:26:51	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0xcef75a…
07-17 08:00:04	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$6	0x8c1e61…
07-16 18:08:22	Discord IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	11	58¢	$7	0x3da5cf…
07-16 17:55:31	China coup attempt before 2027?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xd960b7…
07-16 14:46:19	will trump meet with elon musk in july 2026 20260626153701913	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x8a4ea1…
07-16 12:06:29	Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xecb969…
07-16 10:13:59	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0x253953…
07-16 08:01:29	Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man?	No	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x5a8714…
07-16 07:44:44	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	9	75¢	$6	0xc0695e…
07-16 03:07:02	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0x9a901b…
07-15 08:47:31	China coup attempt before 2027?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x5ab60c…
07-15 03:23:34	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xb58d78…
07-14 08:46:43	Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x9dee16…
07-14 08:43:50	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xf96e03…
07-14 07:59:38	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	SELL	12	45¢	$6	0x033a3f…
07-14 07:20:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0xabfe1a…
07-14 05:55:05	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x2d479d…
07-13 12:50:25	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$6	0x13d102…
07-13 07:10:34	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x256726…
07-13 03:15:46	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$7	0x4a3333…
07-13 03:10:32	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xfef7ec…
07-10 03:03:07	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xb824a3…
07-10 03:00:16	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xf42f89…
07-09 14:28:25	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0xcfde99…
07-09 13:15:53	will trump meet with elon musk in july 2026 20260626153701913	No	BUY	8	83¢	$6	0xb80e64…
07-09 12:15:14	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0xc1cd38…
07-09 12:08:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x92ab7c…
07-09 10:34:38	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x6fb174…
07-09 07:30:19	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	SELL	8	81¢	$7	0x1119b5…
07-09 07:18:56	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x390baf…
07-09 06:04:35	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x9d9825…
07-08 12:03:41	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x9ba967…
07-08 10:47:49	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x51644b…
07-08 08:40:14	Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x4b3d29…
07-08 06:53:59	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	11	39¢	$4	0xa97e1c…