Realized P&L
+$642
Unrealized P&L
+$8
Hit rate
78.7%
Resolved
6,546
Trades
15,883
lifetime
Volume
$102.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$406
21 positions
First seen
2026-04-03
last 05-15 11:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 82 days
Categories
Other
93% 63% +$704
Politics
5% 79% -$55
Crypto
2% 72% +$113
Tech
0% 54% -$120
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-15).
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +101 $98 100¢ $101 +$2 05-05 16:06
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +71 $46 98¢ $70 +$24 05-05 15:39
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +53 $53 100¢ $53 +$0 05-12 07:40
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +28 $28 100¢ $28 +$0 05-03 08:38
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +38 $35 66¢ $25 -$10 05-07 09:04
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? No +17 $8 99¢ $17 +$9 05-06 13:50
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? No +12 $12 100¢ $12 +$0 05-06 13:50
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? No +12 $12 100¢ $12 +$1 05-06 13:50
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +12 $12 100¢ $12 +$0 05-07 07:30
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +12 $12 100¢ $12 +$0 05-06 15:34
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +12 $12 100¢ $12 +$0 05-06 15:34
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +18 $9 54¢ $10 +$1 05-03 16:30
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +10 $5 70¢ $7 +$2 05-03 17:36
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +8 $8 89¢ $7 -$1 05-03 18:27
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No +6 $4 82¢ $5 +$1 05-04 17:36
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-05 13:46
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-05 13:46
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-08 08:35
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No +39 $25 12¢ $4 -$20 05-07 07:08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +10 $4 36¢ $4 -$1 05-06 21:10
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? No +1 $1 26¢ $0 -$1 05-04 17:36