Realized P&L
-$92
Unrealized P&L
+$4
Hit rate
47.7%
Resolved
239
Trades
987
lifetime
Volume
$7.98K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$150
19 positions
First seen
2026-02-28
last 11-11 11:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 98 days
Categories
Politics
64% 57% -$52
Other
35% 58% -$23
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$6
Crypto
0% 60% -$12
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? No +15 $12 88¢ $13 +$1 11-07 10:35
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +10 $8 97¢ $9 +$2 10-23 22:06
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +9 $10 98¢ $9 -$1 10-28 11:50
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? No +9 $8 97¢ $9 +$1 11-01 08:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 90¢ $9 +$1 11-02 18:22
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 90¢ $9 +$0 10-28 00:30
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? No +10 $8 90¢ $9 +$1 11-09 02:22
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31? No +9 $10 92¢ $8 -$1 11-05 02:23
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +9 $8 88¢ $8 +$0 11-05 20:33
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +9 $8 88¢ $8 +$0 11-05 16:41
Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? No +9 $8 88¢ $8 +$0 11-10 04:17
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No +9 $6 91¢ $8 +$2 11-09 18:28
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? No +9 $8 88¢ $8 $0 10-23 00:24
Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? No +9 $8 84¢ $8 $0 11-11 11:53
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? No +10 $8 81¢ $8 $0 11-05 21:20
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31? No +7 $11 97¢ $7 -$4 08-31 04:01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -6 -$6 99¢ $-6 $0 07-01 11:48
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +5 $2 98¢ $5 +$3 05-09 09:07
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -2 -$3 98¢ $-2 +$1 07-03 09:33