Realized P&L
+$1
Unrealized P&L
+$4
Hit rate
94.7%
Resolved
149
Trades
354
lifetime
Volume
$936
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$34
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-14
last 11-13 11:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 21 days
Categories
Sports
63% 89% +$9
Other
20% 96% +$1
Politics
13% 87% -$1
Crypto
4% 71% -$8
Tech
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
17 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 10-27 13:36
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +1 $1 100¢ $1 +$0 10-27 16:33
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +1 $1 90¢ $1 +$0 10-31 13:28
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +1 $1 87¢ $1 +$0 11-01 16:04
US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? No +1 $1 90¢ $1 +$0 11-02 20:05
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 10-31 13:27
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 10-30 13:11
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +1 $1 84¢ $1 +$0 10-27 13:38
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? No +1 $1 92¢ $1 +$0 10-27 13:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1 $1 92¢ $1 +$0 10-27 23:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027? No +1 $1 91¢ $1 +$0 10-27 13:39
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat? Yes +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 11-04 22:08
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +1 $1 90¢ $1 +$0 10-27 23:27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 11-04 22:00
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat? Yes +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 11-04 22:13
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +1 $1 94¢ $1 +$0 10-30 13:10
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +1 $1 91¢ $1 +$0 10-30 13:08
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 10-27 11:28
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 10-30 13:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +1 $1 94¢ $1 +$0 10-27 11:32
Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 +$0 11-04 22:15
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 +$0 11-02 20:18
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? No +1 $1 82¢ $1 +$0 10-30 13:09
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat? Yes +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 11-04 22:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 +$0 10-27 13:37
Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader? No +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 11-06 13:19
Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat? Yes +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 11-07 16:43
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 +$0 10-27 13:41
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? No +1 $1 100¢ $1 +$0 10-30 13:05
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 10-27 11:29