Realized P&L
+$5
Unrealized P&L
+$2
Hit rate
92.9%
Resolved
12
Trades
279
lifetime
Volume
$1.09K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$160
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-08 14:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
45% 100% +$2
Other
43% 83% +$2
Tech
6%
Sports
4% 67% +$1
Crypto
2%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
47 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +73 $70 97¢ $71 +$1 06-01 15:51
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +21 $20 96¢ $20 +$0 06-03 15:09
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +10 $10 96¢ $10 +$0 06-03 15:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +12 $10 82¢ $10 $-0 06-01 15:50
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +10 $8 80¢ $8 +$0 06-03 15:12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 06-01 15:47
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +6 $5 88¢ $5 $-0 06-01 15:52
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +5 $5 92¢ $5 $-0 06-01 15:53
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +5 $5 89¢ $5 $-0 06-01 15:57
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No +4 $3 80¢ $3 +$0 06-01 15:52
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +3 $3 96¢ $3 +$0 06-01 16:00
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +4 $3 80¢ $3 +$0 06-01 15:57
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes +2 $2 99¢ $2 +$0 05-29 02:06
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No +2 $2 98¢ $2 +$0 06-01 15:57
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +2 $2 94¢ $2 +$0 06-01 15:56
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +2 $1 62¢ $1 +$0 06-01 15:56
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +1 $1 74¢ $1 +$0 06-01 15:56
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No +1 $1 92¢ $1 $-0 05-29 02:07
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No +1 $1 76¢ $1 $-0 06-08 14:56
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes -1 $-1 80¢ $-1 $-0 06-07 15:18