Realized P&L
+$309
Unrealized P&L
-$73
Hit rate
55.2%
Resolved
2,077
Trades
10,564
lifetime
Volume
$152.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$768
28 positions
First seen
2026-03-27
last 10-09 14:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 162 days
Categories
Other
63% 54% -$291
Politics
29% 52% +$687
Sports
4% 40% -$241
Crypto
4% 40% +$168
Tech
0% 50% -$13
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
44 active days in 12wk • peak 216 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -614 -$452 84¢ $-513 -$61 06-17 05:43
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -73 -$68 100¢ $-73 -$4 05-27 16:12
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes -95 -$11 42¢ $-40 -$29 07-02 09:51
NATO dissolves before 2027? No -32 -$30 98¢ $-31 -$1 07-02 09:51
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -187 -$10 13¢ $-24 -$14 05-27 16:12
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -197 -$31 12¢ $-23 +$9 05-27 16:12
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -12 -$6 92¢ $-11 -$5 07-02 09:51
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -411 -$12 3¢ $-11 +$1 05-27 16:12
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No -10 -$10 98¢ $-10 $0 07-02 09:51
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes -97 -$37 9¢ $-9 +$29 07-02 09:51
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No -5 -$5 98¢ $-5 $0 07-02 09:51
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -606 -$8 1¢ $-3 +$5 05-27 16:12
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -19 -$2 16¢ $-3 -$1 05-27 16:12
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes -14 -$3 20¢ $-3 $0 07-02 09:51
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes -46 -$4 6¢ $-3 +$2 07-02 09:51
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes -16 -$3 12¢ $-2 +$2 07-02 09:51
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes -39 -$1 3¢ $-1 $0 07-02 09:51
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes -20 $0 5¢ $-1 -$1 07-02 09:51
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No +1 -$3 99¢ $1 +$4 06-06 08:56
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes -5 -$2 17¢ $-1 +$1 07-02 09:51
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +1 -$5 98¢ $1 +$5 05-20 11:59
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +0 -$4 97¢ $0 +$4 05-27 16:12
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes -6 $4 4¢ $-0 -$4 07-02 09:51
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 06-22 11:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +1 $2 16¢ $0 -$2 06-21 16:01
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No +0 $0 96¢ $0 +$0 05-07 13:36
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +1 $7 10¢ $0 -$7 06-19 21:10
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +0 $3 3¢ $0 -$3 05-10 20:29