Realized P&L
+$189
Unrealized P&L
+$25
Hit rate
57.0%
Resolved
40
Trades
5,230
lifetime
Volume
$9.38K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$361
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-22
last 06-13 06:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 14 days
Categories
Politics
46% 43% +$189
Other
33% 27% +$15
Sports
12% 33% $-13
Crypto
8% 0% $-2
Tech
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 744 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes +200 $82 40¢ $80 $-2 06-08 05:02
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No -100 $-60 42¢ $-42 +$18 05-29 23:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -65 $-26 50¢ $-32 $-6 05-28 14:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +31 $22 84¢ $26 +$4 06-08 17:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No -81 $-20 29¢ $-23 $-3 06-12 11:59
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +18 $13 82¢ $14 +$1 06-08 10:17
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes -311 $-20 $-12 +$8 06-02 23:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +13 $10 84¢ $11 +$1 06-09 23:21
Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027? No +11 $10 90¢ $10 $-0 06-06 22:25
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-30 20:14
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 +$0 05-30 20:01
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No +10 $10 98¢ $10 +$0 06-05 02:21
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +21 $10 42¢ $9 $-1 06-02 21:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +17 $5 50¢ $9 +$3 06-08 10:37
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes +46 $9 18¢ $8 $-1 06-08 05:02
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No -8 $-7 97¢ $-7 $-1 06-07 12:35
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No -7 $-7 98¢ $-7 $-0 06-09 13:54
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes +15 $6 42¢ $6 +$1 05-28 15:32
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes -10 $-5 54¢ $-5 $-0 06-11 22:18
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 05-30 22:09
Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027? No +5 $4 89¢ $4 $-0 06-06 04:58
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes -54 $-2 $-3 $-1 06-12 19:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes +4 $2 64¢ $3 +$1 06-10 20:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +5 $2 52¢ $3 +$1 06-13 06:45
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No +2 $2 82¢ $2 $-0 06-10 23:52
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Yes -491 $-3 $-2 +$1 06-03 21:46
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No -2 $-2 98¢ $-2 $-0 06-11 18:10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No +2 $2 96¢ $2 +$0 06-08 06:08
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes -2 $-2 92¢ $-2 +$0 05-30 14:17
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +2 $1 80¢ $1 +$0 06-12 06:43