Realized P&L
+$189
Unrealized P&L
-$30
Hit rate
57.0%
Resolved
40
Trades
5,794
lifetime
Volume
$11.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$343
26 positions
First seen
2026-03-22
last 07-03 06:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 14 days
Categories
Politics
47% 43% +$189
Other
34% 27% +$15
Sports
10% 33% $-13
Crypto
8% 0% $-2
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk • peak 268 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +225 $77 34¢ $75 $-2 06-30 12:45
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes +205 $84 32¢ $66 $-18 06-26 18:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -72 $-39 76¢ $-55 $-16 07-02 04:42
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes -75 $-20 22¢ $-17 +$3 06-15 21:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +18 $13 92¢ $16 +$3 06-08 10:17
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No -12 $-12 100¢ $-12 +$0 06-21 13:59
Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027? No +11 $10 90¢ $10 $-0 06-06 22:25
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -16 $-9 60¢ $-10 $-0 06-29 12:08
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +10 $9 92¢ $9 +$1 06-25 09:03
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No -10 $-8 86¢ $-9 $-0 06-29 12:08
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes -311 $-20 $-8 +$12 06-02 23:19
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -11 $-6 60¢ $-7 $-0 06-29 12:08
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No +6 $6 94¢ $6 +$0 07-03 04:55
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +6 $5 86¢ $6 +$1 07-02 06:50
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 88¢ $5 $-0 07-03 04:57
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No +5 $5 92¢ $5 +$0 07-02 06:48
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes +15 $6 30¢ $5 $-1 05-28 15:32
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No +5 $5 92¢ $5 +$0 07-02 06:53
Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027? No +5 $4 90¢ $5 +$0 06-06 04:58
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +8 $4 52¢ $4 +$0 07-02 13:41
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes -10 $-5 40¢ $-4 +$1 06-30 03:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -24 $-3 14¢ $-3 $-0 07-01 05:45
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +2 $2 94¢ $2 +$0 06-26 00:04
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes +5 $1 26¢ $1 +$0 06-26 05:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -37 $14 $-0 $-14 06-24 20:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +0 $-1 24¢ $0 +$1 07-03 13:29