Realized P&L
+$189
Unrealized P&L
+$10
Hit rate
57.0%
Resolved
40
Trades
6,654
lifetime
Volume
$14.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$355
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-22
last 07-23 19:09
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 14 days
Categories
Politics
49% 43% +$189
Other
35% 27% +$15
Sports
8% 33% $-13
Crypto
7% 0% $-2
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 268 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes +110 $50 70¢ $76 +$27 07-18 04:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -72 $-39 99¢ $-72 $-33 07-11 17:36
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes -75 $-20 24¢ $-18 +$3 06-15 21:01
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +34 $12 42¢ $14 +$2 07-12 21:34
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +18 $10 72¢ $13 +$3 07-17 18:16
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -16 $-9 71¢ $-12 $-2 06-29 12:08
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No -13 $-12 90¢ $-12 +$1 07-16 22:36
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +14 $9 79¢ $11 +$2 07-13 11:19
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes -311 $-20 $-11 +$9 06-02 23:19
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +12 $11 92¢ $11 +$0 07-03 22:29
Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027? No +11 $10 90¢ $10 $-0 06-06 22:25
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No +12 $11 88¢ $10 $-0 07-04 17:32
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No +10 $9 92¢ $9 +$0 07-04 07:31
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No -10 $-8 88¢ $-9 $-0 06-29 12:08
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +10 $9 82¢ $8 $-0 06-25 09:03
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -11 $-6 66¢ $-7 $-1 06-29 12:08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -24 $-4 30¢ $-7 $-3 07-13 01:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +16 $7 36¢ $6 $-1 07-13 19:39
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No +6 $6 95¢ $6 +$0 07-03 04:55
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +6 $5 80¢ $5 +$1 07-02 06:50
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 +$0 07-10 10:58
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes +15 $6 32¢ $5 $-1 05-28 15:32
Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$0 06-06 04:58
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes -10 $-8 36¢ $-4 +$4 07-15 03:13
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Yes +15 $2 22¢ $3 +$2 07-18 07:17
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +2 $2 90¢ $2 $-0 06-26 00:04
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +16 $1 11¢ $2 +$0 07-12 15:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2 $2 70¢ $1 $-1 07-13 19:33
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes +5 $1 24¢ $1 +$0 06-26 05:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +3 $1 $0 $-1 07-15 22:54