Clumsy-Supply — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.04K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

102,541

lifetime

Volume

$3.62M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 16:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

54% 50% +$17

Politics

31% 100% +$4,020

Sports

10% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 851 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2,986	$313.0K	1,623,041	2,020,205	-397,164	open	—	03-18 17:26
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1,648	$222.9K	1,935,381	1,639,174	+296,207	open	—	03-18 17:19
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	622	$173.2K	185,946	146,156	+39,789	open	—	04-12 11:12
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1,254	$163.1K	792,916	2,523,785	-1,730,869	open	—	01-28 18:29
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	359	$138.5K	155,205	172,074	-16,869	open	—	02-08 20:36
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	477	$128.1K	251,281	220,289	+30,992	open	—	02-28 07:05
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	682	$120.9K	274,156	280,504	-6,348	open	—	03-26 14:16
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	365	$108.9K	131,618	66,644	+64,974	open	—	04-12 10:27
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	578	$105.4K	242,737	210,851	+31,885	open	—	02-28 13:22
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	653	$101.1K	85,740	162,095	-76,355	open	—	02-08 21:34
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7,275	$93.1K	5,100,787	5,173,574	-72,786	open	—	03-18 17:38
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08 spread away 4pt5	993	$91.8K	95,214	88,083	+7,131	open	—	02-08 21:21
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	307	$80.0K	87,430	68,773	+18,657	open	—	02-24 05:17
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1,158	$78.0K	1,589,992	62,703	+1,527,289	open	—	01-28 18:49
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	7,769	$76.1K	9,515,949	8,631,291	+884,657	open	—	01-28 13:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	233	$70.0K	84,500	80,000	+4,500	open	—	08-07 00:16
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	11,647	$67.4K	12,328,158	11,703,870	+624,288	open	—	03-18 15:43
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	147	$57.5K	584,094	813,385	-229,291	open	—	01-03 20:05
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	189	$56.9K	53,228	31,197	+22,031	open	—	04-12 05:06
netanyahu out by march 31 854	395	$53.7K	103,081	117,436	-14,355	open	—	04-01 04:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	647	$50.4K	168,896	171,636	-2,739	open	—	02-17 20:19
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	119	$49.8K	35,103	37,421	-2,318	open	—	04-11 23:58
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	76	$48.9K	70,000	40,000	+30,000	open	—	07-31 16:20
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	63	$47.8K	64,915	33,753	+31,162	open	—	08-09 17:06
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	10,848	$42.4K	4,606,848	4,858,581	-251,733	open	—	03-17 07:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	474	$42.0K	2,708,531	2,509,834	+198,697	open	—	06-03 16:25
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	81	$41.4K	87,830	79,146	+8,684	open	—	04-05 01:52
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	31	$39.9K	40,000	0	+40,000	open	—	07-12 03:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	420	$39.5K	335,938	303,191	+32,748	open	—	04-19 07:19
crint ind nzl 2026 03 08	136	$37.6K	19,500	22,500	-3,000	open	—	03-08 15:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 16:13:09	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	54	83¢	$45	0x1bc3e9…
08-11 11:02:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	33	95¢	$31	0xfc6db1…
08-10 23:47:40	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	314	95¢	$298	0x76ed38…
08-10 23:46:42	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	222	95¢	$211	0x02672c…
08-10 23:46:24	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	62	95¢	$59	0x885997…
08-10 23:46:01	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	185	95¢	$176	0xcc0799…
08-10 11:11:27	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	1,987	94¢	$1,868	0xbed872…
08-10 11:08:24	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	2,091	94¢	$1,966	0x38de7e…
08-10 08:40:13	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	119	94¢	$112	0x71e051…
08-10 03:28:06	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0xf5d40a…
08-10 00:30:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	83	94¢	$78	0x71fe84…
08-09 19:23:48	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x712cf8…
08-09 18:05:00	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	10,673	94¢	$10,033	0xa97418…
08-09 17:19:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,500	53¢	$795	0xa5388f…
08-09 17:15:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	266	54¢	$144	0xce317d…
08-09 17:15:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	43	54¢	$23	0x8f31cd…
08-09 17:12:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	54¢	$540	0x8c4a92…
08-09 17:08:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	190	54¢	$103	0xb56c5d…
08-09 17:06:54	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2,000	7¢	$140	0x7c8f7a…
08-09 15:32:12	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x9a5462…
08-09 14:42:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	219	55¢	$120	0xe6b7fd…
08-09 14:21:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	51	55¢	$28	0x94eb0f…
08-09 14:02:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6c346f…
08-09 13:56:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	111	55¢	$61	0x303e0b…
08-09 13:31:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x228f7d…
08-09 13:16:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x758614…
08-09 13:04:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0xd98e6e…
08-09 12:53:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x370bfd…
08-09 12:31:03	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0xc5b6e5…
08-09 11:45:27	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8,828	7¢	$618	0xa20723…
08-09 09:38:00	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3,512	7¢	$246	0xd20d0a…
08-09 02:13:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xea0392…
08-09 02:10:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x8ffb9b…
08-09 02:09:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x17648f…
08-09 02:07:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	55¢	$6	0xb6a69d…
08-09 02:07:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x53c472…
08-09 02:04:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x1abfe2…
08-09 01:59:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb95c8e…
08-09 01:56:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x99bff1…
08-09 01:55:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x6a2b90…
08-09 01:55:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	600	55¢	$330	0xaba883…
08-09 01:55:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	267	55¢	$147	0x8eb515…
08-07 00:16:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,500	81¢	$1,215	0x9a72ae…
08-06 22:01:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,500	82¢	$1,230	0xba74a9…
08-06 17:10:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,466	83¢	$1,216	0x30bfac…
08-06 17:05:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xfc84d7…
08-06 17:04:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0x3f4dbe…
08-06 16:16:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x40c936…
08-06 16:15:54	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	157	95¢	$150	0xf8a877…
08-05 15:11:08	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	1,500	84¢	$1,260	0x6bc69e…
08-05 14:02:11	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	No	BUY	1,500	62¢	$930	0x7d9125…
08-05 13:54:05	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	No	BUY	1,000	63¢	$630	0x80a308…
08-05 13:52:56	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	BUY	2,219	76¢	$1,687	0x517c51…
08-05 13:52:03	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x854a7e…
08-05 13:52:00	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	BUY	129	76¢	$98	0x4a4042…
08-05 11:54:17	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	2,000	85¢	$1,700	0xda3fe9…
08-05 11:51:06	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0x830ebd…
08-05 08:08:14	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0x363bbc…
08-05 08:01:53	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0xd91899…
08-05 06:21:12	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0xfa36a7…
08-05 05:38:53	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	56	9¢	$5	0x5768c7…
08-05 01:34:00	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,111	9¢	$100	0x0ea800…
08-04 23:04:11	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,069	9¢	$96	0x16aff1…
08-04 00:26:20	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	173	8¢	$14	0x3001fe…
08-03 19:16:05	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0xcc70e9…
08-03 18:31:47	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xb75856…
08-03 17:45:41	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	1,500	86¢	$1,290	0xe1474e…
08-03 16:11:59	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xa3ede9…
08-03 08:55:42	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	558	8¢	$45	0xcb7db3…
08-02 21:49:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7,701	80¢	$6,160	0x7f4bcf…
08-02 21:48:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	88	80¢	$70	0x5af059…
08-02 21:48:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0x18100b…
08-02 21:48:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8,750	80¢	$7,000	0x421a19…
08-02 21:44:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xf5f2d6…
08-02 21:43:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10,000	80¢	$8,000	0x89883b…
08-02 21:42:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	240	80¢	$192	0xfcbb5d…
08-02 21:42:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3,000	80¢	$2,400	0x91e92e…
08-02 21:33:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	40	80¢	$32	0x2132dc…
08-02 21:11:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x422c10…
08-02 21:09:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x148445…
08-02 21:00:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xd726b3…
08-02 20:59:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xce8b01…
08-02 20:47:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x286403…
08-02 20:34:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	250	80¢	$200	0xeda984…
08-02 20:24:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	16	80¢	$13	0x36d558…
08-02 19:55:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x19faeb…
08-02 19:55:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x06a7ce…
08-02 19:53:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3,846	80¢	$3,077	0xae7077…
08-02 19:45:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	450	80¢	$360	0xc5e7ab…
08-02 19:44:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	574	80¢	$459	0x843d60…
08-02 19:26:57	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x5cd9c0…
08-02 09:43:29	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,087	8¢	$87	0x749895…
08-02 09:30:35	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xd84977…
08-02 09:26:51	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	326	8¢	$26	0x095d0c…
08-02 08:31:20	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0xb20491…
08-02 05:26:59	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x8664d2…
08-01 22:40:14	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x5a36b3…
08-01 21:01:38	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xcae2f7…
08-01 17:41:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	74¢	$3,700	0x075534…
08-01 17:24:17	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x00043c…