Realized P&L (90d)
+$5.45K
Unrealized P&L
+$20.1K
Hit rate
71.5%
Resolved (90d)
21
Trades (90d)
5,112
202,983 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$195.1K
$7.12M lifetime
Avg / trade
$35
Open exposure
$182.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-13 20:24
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 95 days
Categories
Other
71%
71%
+$1,550
Politics
19%
65%
+$26,631
Sports
6%
82%
+$31,111
Crypto
2%
62%
+$3,192
Tech
1%
93%
+$2,621
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk
• peak 200 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | -31,969 | -$28,655 | 93¢ | $-29651 | -$997 | 11-04 20:40 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | +26,000 | $20,670 | 94¢ | $24.3K | +$3,640 | 08-16 23:23 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +19,058 | $18,010 | 98¢ | $18.8K | +$762 | 10-30 23:48 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | No | +12,068 | $10,719 | 93¢ | $11.3K | +$558 | 11-10 13:04 | |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | No | +11,103 | $10,624 | 98¢ | $10.9K | +$296 | 11-01 00:21 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | -11,771 | -$11,132 | 91¢ | $-10682 | +$450 | 05-14 07:32 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +11,500 | $7,390 | 92¢ | $10.5K | +$3,132 | 09-10 13:42 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November? | No | +10,000 | $9,730 | 94¢ | $9.4K | -$335 | 11-12 20:13 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +9,000 | $7,305 | 98¢ | $8.9K | +$1,546 | 06-04 00:47 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | No | +8,248 | $7,288 | 96¢ | $7.9K | +$589 | 11-09 06:38 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | No | +5,000 | $3,585 | 92¢ | $4.6K | +$990 | 08-23 12:15 | |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | -436,574 | -$4,203 | 1¢ | $-4147 | +$56 | 10-04 23:06 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +4,042 | $2,485 | 97¢ | $3.9K | +$1,455 | 10-29 19:04 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November? | No | +3,400 | $3,266 | 98¢ | $3.3K | +$52 | 11-08 20:11 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | -21,973 | -$2,042 | 15¢ | $-3197 | -$1,155 | 05-18 06:59 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +3,000 | $2,475 | 97¢ | $2.9K | +$448 | 05-18 02:20 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | +2,500 | $2,391 | 98¢ | $2.5K | +$69 | 11-05 16:39 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | -150,075 | -$9,678 | 2¢ | $-2326 | +$7,352 | 07-05 23:48 | |
| will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797 | Yes | +2,877 | $2,186 | 79¢ | $2.3K | +$78 | 11-02 17:53 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November? | No | +2,000 | $1,957 | 99¢ | $2.0K | +$27 | 11-08 22:22 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | +1,500 | $1,110 | 98¢ | $1.5K | +$355 | 05-02 01:18 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,500 | $1,414 | 89¢ | $1.3K | -$79 | 11-12 14:17 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,500 | $1,320 | 80¢ | $1.2K | -$112 | 11-12 14:56 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | Yes | +2,272 | $3,000 | 44¢ | $1.0K | -$1,989 | 11-06 22:56 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in November? | No | +1,000 | $983 | 99¢ | $988 | +$5 | 11-09 19:53 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November? | No | +1,000 | $940 | 97¢ | $967 | +$27 | 11-06 03:38 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | -9,499 | -$2,038 | 10¢ | $-945 | +$1,093 | 09-15 15:58 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Yes | -40,934 | -$3,848 | 2¢ | $-675 | +$3,172 | 05-08 14:31 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in November? | No | +500 | $477 | 97¢ | $483 | +$6 | 11-09 13:54 | |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | +302,238 | $1,813 | 0¢ | $453 | -$1,360 | 05-24 07:51 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting | 2,986 | $313.0K | 1,623,041 | 2,020,205 | -397,164 | No | +$14,108 | 03-18 17:26 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 1,648 | $222.9K | 1,935,381 | 1,639,174 | +296,207 | Yes | -$44,936 | 03-18 17:19 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | 469 | $177.4K | 220,156 | 74,624 | +145,531 | Yes | -$207,285 | 07-14 18:41 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 622 | $173.2K | 185,946 | 146,156 | +39,789 | Yes | -$45,266 | 04-12 11:12 |
| fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting | 1,254 | $163.1K | 792,916 | 2,523,785 | -1,730,869 | No | +$60,033 | 01-28 18:29 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | 470 | $149.7K | 149,999 | 149,999 | +0 | No | +$626 | 06-14 04:07 |
| nfl sea ne 2026 02 08 | 359 | $138.5K | 155,205 | 172,074 | -16,869 | Seahawks | +$9,769 | 02-08 20:36 |
| Will France vs. Spain end in a draw? | 96 | $131.1K | 105,000 | 189,780 | -84,780 | No | +$89,733 | 07-14 13:28 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 477 | $128.1K | 251,281 | 220,289 | +30,992 | Yes | +$729 | 02-28 07:05 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | 891 | $126.5K | 59,998 | 234,782 | -174,784 | No | +$118,106 | 07-14 19:10 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | 677 | $124.2K | 154,900 | 30,000 | +124,901 | No | +$44,151 | 07-11 20:31 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 682 | $120.9K | 274,156 | 280,504 | -6,348 | No | +$838 | 03-26 14:16 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 365 | $108.9K | 131,618 | 66,644 | +64,974 | No | +$40,326 | 04-12 10:27 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | 342 | $107.3K | 45,000 | 169,896 | -124,897 | No | +$93,677 | 07-11 19:37 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | 785 | $106.0K | 215,986 | 0 | +215,986 | No | +$110,003 | 07-18 14:31 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 578 | $105.4K | 242,737 | 210,851 | +31,885 | Yes | +$25,718 | 02-28 13:22 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 614 | $103.3K | 274,037 | 283,272 | -9,235 | open | — | 06-23 01:51 |
| will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026 | 653 | $101.1K | 85,740 | 162,095 | -76,355 | Yes | +$24,877 | 02-08 21:34 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | 271 | $100.3K | 119,999 | 74,999 | +45,000 | No | +$82,874 | 07-19 18:58 |
| will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting | 7,275 | $93.1K | 5,100,787 | 5,173,574 | -72,786 | No | +$6,115 | 03-18 17:38 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | 621 | $92.8K | 89,999 | 104,998 | -14,999 | No | +$50,937 | 07-19 19:04 |
| nfl sea ne 2026 02 08 spread away 4pt5 | 993 | $91.8K | 95,214 | 88,083 | +7,131 | Seahawks | -$10,404 | 02-08 21:21 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 278 | $90.1K | 108,000 | 92,000 | +16,000 | open | — | 09-10 13:42 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? | 712 | $86.1K | 100,574 | 15,049 | +85,525 | No | +$19,318 | 07-10 17:11 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 307 | $80.0K | 87,430 | 68,773 | +18,657 | Yes | -$1,021 | 02-24 05:17 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-07-04? | 13 | $79.8K | 90,000 | 30,000 | +60,000 | No | +$20,400 | 07-04 15:50 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | 764 | $79.5K | 87,764 | 62,234 | +25,530 | Yes | -$102,480 | 07-15 16:54 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 1,158 | $78.0K | 1,589,992 | 62,703 | +1,527,289 | Yes | -$40,756 | 01-28 18:49 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06? | 95 | $76.8K | 60,037 | 76,601 | -16,564 | Yes | -$76,664 | 07-07 00:17 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 475 | $76.4K | 83,813 | 193,813 | -109,999 | No | +$14,878 | 11-03 13:07 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||