French-Pathogenesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$47

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

14.6%

Resolved

119

Trades

659

lifetime

Volume

$5.70K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 10-18 20:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Politics

44% 25% -$1

Other

28% 41% -$46

Sports

22% 11% -$1

Crypto

7% 85% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+0	$0	81¢	$0	+$0	10-16 19:37
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	$0	09-18 18:39
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	$0	05-23 23:58
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	+0	$1	97¢	$0	-$1	10-02 08:42
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	$0	06-14 07:07
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+0	$0	81¢	$0	+$0	05-31 19:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?	2	$886	1,662	1,662	+0	No	-$22	04-28 14:39
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	16	$126	63	63	+0	open	—	10-17 02:10
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	14	$110	56	56	-0	open	—	10-11 06:39
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	14	$94	48	48	+0	open	—	10-16 10:39
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	12	$92	46	46	+0	open	—	10-02 00:22
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	10	$92	46	46	+0	open	—	10-05 04:06
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	11	$90	62	62	+0	No	$0	04-04 14:51
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	12	$88	45	45	+0	open	—	10-11 05:22
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	12	$86	45	45	+0	No	$0	04-09 06:19
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	12	$84	42	42	+0	open	—	10-16 04:47
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	10	$80	40	40	+0	No	$0	06-14 16:35
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	2	$79	92	92	+0	No	+$0	03-29 07:10
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	10	$76	39	39	-0	open	—	10-11 19:19
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	12	$76	39	39	+0	open	—	10-13 15:19
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	11	$74	41	41	+0	open	—	10-17 00:55
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$71	58	58	+0	Yes	-$12	04-19 13:22
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	13	$67	41	41	+0	open	—	10-02 08:42
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	8	$64	40	40	+0	Yes	$0	04-08 13:32
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	8	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	10-11 10:04
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	8	$60	31	31	+0	open	—	10-16 16:45
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	10	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	06-15 00:57
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	8	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	10-06 11:38
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	8	$58	29	29	+0	open	—	10-13 15:50
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	6	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	10-10 17:08
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	6	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	10-16 20:18
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	6	$50	27	27	+0	open	—	10-16 19:37
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$50	21	29	-8	No	$0	03-10 23:34
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	6	$50	25	25	+0	open	—	09-19 21:34
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	6	$50	26	26	+0	open	—	06-10 14:38
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	6	$50	26	26	+0	No	$0	10-10 09:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 20:44:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x732d37…
10-17 02:36:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xfc3857…
10-17 02:10:48	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xa1e689…
10-17 02:00:27	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x745650…
10-17 00:55:53	Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xb40e1b…
10-16 21:44:51	Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x8232a5…
10-16 20:18:54	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc72dae…
10-16 20:07:47	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x97d9a8…
10-16 19:37:37	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xc19ae9…
10-16 18:13:24	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x9d4815…
10-16 16:45:39	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x21d3e4…
10-16 13:35:01	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xad8935…
10-16 12:48:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x091479…
10-16 12:37:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x0a7ef0…
10-16 10:39:34	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x4b23e8…
10-16 10:29:15	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcc5507…
10-16 08:53:54	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	14	72¢	$10	0x6b4c1e…
10-16 05:16:21	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xda2b86…
10-16 04:47:30	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x71bf24…
10-16 01:36:21	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x8a9331…
10-16 01:02:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0xff4b39…
10-14 18:39:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xf1cde4…
10-14 11:49:17	Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xf13389…
10-14 11:39:01	Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x5e87f8…
10-14 06:11:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x867cbf…
10-14 00:18:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x44e33f…
10-13 17:28:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x40d93b…
10-13 17:18:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x9f357c…
10-13 15:50:18	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x66f8e5…
10-13 15:39:51	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x0d05c0…
10-13 15:19:22	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xf8ef7f…
10-13 11:17:05	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x50444f…
10-13 09:28:05	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x5a05e9…
10-12 05:23:30	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9fcd53…
10-12 04:49:26	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x88c0ce…
10-12 01:38:56	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x06c17e…
10-11 19:19:01	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xf61a0f…
10-11 16:08:21	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x37068b…
10-11 14:00:27	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x7917fb…
10-11 10:50:02	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xb4bd39…
10-11 10:04:34	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xb2f32c…
10-11 06:54:12	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x0ad61c…
10-11 06:39:00	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xd379b2…
10-11 06:28:36	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x39d221…
10-11 05:22:21	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xd3b3d2…
10-11 05:12:09	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x2bc099…
10-11 03:25:17	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x39cccb…
10-11 03:15:05	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x02f8cc…
10-11 02:09:41	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xe67195…
10-10 21:12:51	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x346081…
10-10 17:08:04	Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x4fd9ac…
10-10 16:57:48	Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x56806d…
10-10 11:43:57	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x017c3f…
10-10 11:33:37	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x427c4d…
10-10 10:42:39	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xee10cb…
10-10 10:32:27	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf725dd…
10-10 09:46:37	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x3815ca…
10-10 09:36:22	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xfc7361…
10-10 09:16:09	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x4b7ee9…
10-10 09:05:49	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4241c2…
10-10 08:04:45	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x349e20…
10-10 07:54:21	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc46bee…
10-10 07:40:55	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x36115a…
10-10 04:30:28	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x67dd7b…
10-10 02:22:03	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xa0aac3…
10-10 02:11:41	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x41f9a6…
10-09 23:23:49	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x9033b8…
10-08 11:07:03	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xa32e86…
10-08 10:15:17	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x3dd224…
10-08 07:04:44	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x8414ea…
10-08 06:11:01	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x7eef3c…
10-08 03:00:46	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x9ccfc4…
10-08 02:08:43	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x3b7e88…
10-08 01:58:28	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x260f32…
10-08 01:32:58	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb28b46…
10-08 01:22:40	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x332e98…
10-08 00:21:31	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf28c0e…
10-08 00:11:11	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb23d60…
10-07 21:42:10	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x817df5…
10-07 18:31:19	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x666a36…
10-07 16:53:46	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0xfe9236…
10-07 13:42:44	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x57f179…
10-07 12:24:59	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x726a3e…
10-06 15:29:21	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xbd0e14…
10-06 11:38:51	Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3366e1…
10-06 11:28:10	Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xec1ccf…
10-06 10:56:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x37df80…
10-06 06:54:43	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x5271b6…
10-06 06:03:18	Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc3f397…
10-06 05:53:06	Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa1f77f…
10-06 05:29:43	Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xa1f1c2…
10-06 02:18:04	Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xebc171…
10-06 00:05:32	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x3e7e33…
10-05 20:55:13	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xcb0355…
10-05 19:39:16	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0xf33117…
10-05 16:28:59	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x1b07d5…
10-05 13:24:53	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x53fd72…
10-05 10:14:16	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x0ba4ce…
10-05 08:57:17	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x173df0…
10-05 05:46:34	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x62dda2…