Realized P&L (30d)
-$22
Unrealized P&L
+$5
Hit rate
88.0%
Resolved (30d)
579
Trades (30d)
7,685
22,874 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$27.6K
$87.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$414
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-18
last 11-07 13:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 110 days
Categories
Other
58% 82% +$46
Politics
28% 78% -$8
Crypto
8% 69% -$9
Tech
4% 71% -$5
Sports
1% 92% +$17
Pop-Culture
1% 75% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 686 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No +66 $64 96¢ $63 -$1 09-06 04:12
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +25 $20 80¢ $20 $0 10-29 10:02
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? Yes +20 $17 86¢ $17 +$0 10-21 19:46
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? No +19 $16 86¢ $16 +$0 10-24 15:03
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? No +15 $13 98¢ $15 +$1 10-25 22:39
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No +20 $8 74¢ $15 +$6 10-29 15:54
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? No +16 $14 94¢ $15 +$1 11-06 09:46
Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed artist for 2026? No +15 $13 90¢ $14 +$1 10-29 20:04
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026? Yes +15 $14 89¢ $13 $0 10-29 14:13
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No +20 $14 65¢ $13 -$1 11-02 23:08
Will Kraken be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? No +15 $14 86¢ $13 -$1 10-24 19:02
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? No +15 $14 86¢ $13 -$1 10-22 14:32
Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30? No +15 $13 82¢ $12 $0 10-24 00:03
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No +15 $10 80¢ $12 +$2 10-25 14:29
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? No +15 $12 79¢ $12 $0 10-27 01:56
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No +15 $11 74¢ $11 $0 10-17 02:06
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? No +15 $12 74¢ $11 -$1 10-28 23:21
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +15 $13 74¢ $11 -$2 10-26 00:19
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? No +15 $11 73¢ $11 +$0 10-28 20:27
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +15 $12 73¢ $11 -$1 10-28 20:51
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? No +11 $9 95¢ $10 +$2 09-23 11:39
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +15 $14 70¢ $10 -$3 10-20 16:18
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? No +13 $11 82¢ $10 -$1 10-08 08:14
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 98¢ $10 +$2 10-26 19:15
Makina FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +10 $9 95¢ $9 $0 10-23 06:52
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? No +10 $9 94¢ $9 +$0 11-07 07:21
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +10 $9 92¢ $9 +$0 11-02 17:07
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? No +10 $8 92¢ $9 +$1 09-19 12:33
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? No +10 $9 90¢ $9 +$0 10-13 15:10
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No +10 $9 88¢ $9 +$0 09-30 23:41