Oddball-Storyboard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.24K

Unrealized P&L

-$663

Hit rate

67.3%

Resolved

405

Trades

3,865

lifetime

Volume

$260.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

$494

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 10-27 17:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 98 days

Categories

Politics

52% 53% +$7,836

Other

41% 42% -$3,561

Sports

6% 35% +$2,603

Crypto

0% 12% -$546

Tech

0% 29% -$97

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+1,260	$507	12¢	$149	-$359	10-27 17:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+150	-$486	82¢	$124	+$610	10-16 09:48
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+1,000	$461	8¢	$85	-$376	09-18 14:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+700	$607	12¢	$81	-$526	09-22 13:20
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+60	$49	69¢	$41	-$8	10-14 17:11
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+15	$3	32¢	$5	+$1	09-05 13:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+30	$5	14¢	$4	-$1	09-06 10:01
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	+100	$8	3¢	$3	-$5	06-26 22:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+16	$5	15¢	$2	-$3	09-05 13:43
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	+1	-$2	84¢	$1	+$3	08-20 13:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	175	$33.9K	20,903	15,986	+4,916	No	+$789	03-31 17:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	121	$20.1K	12,336	13,345	-1,009	Yes	-$3,275	04-07 23:14
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	198	$13.3K	10,276	11,137	-862	Yes	+$502	04-07 23:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	31	$10.8K	7,097	7,097	+0	Yes	+$645	04-05 04:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	62	$8.7K	9,577	8,947	+630	Yes	+$2,381	06-14 21:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	47	$8.7K	16,300	16,300	+0	No	-$2,299	06-26 02:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	144	$8.6K	17,181	17,181	+0	No	-$1,272	05-30 04:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	52	$7.9K	5,010	4,860	+150	open	—	10-16 09:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	9	$7.6K	3,849	3,849	+0	No	+$4	05-11 13:13
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	212	$7.0K	6,758	1,856	+4,902	Yes	+$1,226	03-30 07:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	27	$6.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	Yes	-$762	06-15 12:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	24	$6.2K	2,782	3,622	-839	No	+$128	04-20 19:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	108	$5.2K	14,916	12,522	+2,394	Yes	+$4,245	05-08 19:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	42	$4.2K	4,074	3,868	+207	Yes	-$992	05-08 18:40
Thunder vs. Lakers	10	$3.7K	4,500	0	+4,500	Thunder	+$763	05-10 01:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	44	$3.5K	2,598	2,598	+0	Yes	+$86	06-20 14:46
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	27	$3.2K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$526	06-14 21:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	37	$3.1K	2,674	1,973	+700	Yes	+$522	06-14 11:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	46	$3.0K	5,119	5,119	+0	Yes	+$1,229	06-14 22:45
epl bou lee 2026 04 22 draw	2	$2.9K	3,733	2,720	+1,013	Yes	-$2,718	04-22 20:54
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	50	$2.7K	4,916	0	+4,916	Yes	+$2,208	04-07 23:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	86	$2.2K	18,242	18,242	+0	No	-$578	05-29 01:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	7	$2.2K	2,656	2,656	+0	Yes	-$2,044	04-07 23:18
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	42	$2.2K	2,541	2,541	+0	Yes	-$129	06-14 21:15
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	22	$2.2K	1,424	1,424	+0	open	—	05-29 01:55
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	5	$2.1K	1,137	1,137	+0	Yes	+$127	05-12 20:56
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	7	$2.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	06-10 12:27
Lakers vs. Thunder	4	$2.0K	1,200	973	+227	Thunder	+$121	05-06 02:54
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	67	$2.0K	4,099	4,099	+0	Yes	+$698	06-24 15:11
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-10?	3	$2.0K	1,076	1,076	+0	Yes	-$59	05-10 15:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 17:19:56	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xe2b14e…
10-24 16:19:56	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x8ca455…
10-24 14:47:12	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x7046e2…
10-24 13:37:20	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xbd57e9…
10-23 19:57:09	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x45259b…
10-16 09:48:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xe2c1c1…
10-14 17:11:52	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xa31b64…
10-12 18:46:14	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	70	9¢	$6	0x5441ac…
10-11 16:08:13	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0xe55fe7…
10-10 12:20:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x6cebad…
10-10 12:19:31	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x2573cd…
09-24 14:10:32	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x49768d…
09-22 18:31:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0xfac75f…
09-22 15:24:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0xc0d412…
09-22 13:20:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0xbca3d6…
09-22 13:19:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0x3adf2b…
09-21 08:09:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0x22ca5e…
09-21 08:07:47	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x902b8f…
09-20 16:42:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x5db8dd…
09-20 06:07:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0x745b4f…
09-19 10:36:28	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x68501b…
09-19 10:32:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x7ea435…
09-19 10:31:37	Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x67a0de…
09-19 10:30:58	Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xed8690…
09-19 10:19:25	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0xf0fb1d…
09-18 15:09:54	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x3ea345…
09-18 14:21:18	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0x8480c5…
09-18 14:19:50	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xe51aec…
09-18 14:17:30	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	65¢	$15	0x7102d2…
09-18 14:16:36	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	65¢	$23	0x5a5dc0…
09-18 06:45:37	Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	7¢	$5	0xcfe97f…
09-16 19:15:06	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	150	8¢	$12	0x7b715c…
09-16 14:47:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0x16f616…
09-15 17:54:31	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	76	8¢	$6	0xddeffe…
09-15 17:53:57	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	24	8¢	$2	0xc42e60…
09-15 16:47:18	Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xfeab03…
09-15 16:46:00	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x063101…
09-15 16:44:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	80	11¢	$9	0x186fa4…
09-13 15:55:45	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0xc5ead0…
09-13 15:38:21	will wti dip to 80 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x02bbf8…
09-10 21:40:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x1a0010…
09-10 18:15:55	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	150	7¢	$11	0xf27628…
09-07 17:02:12	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xd7472f…
09-07 11:36:25	Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xfbf75f…
09-06 19:37:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x216838…
09-06 10:01:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x163357…
09-05 19:39:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x47b033…
09-05 13:57:34	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	23¢	$3	0x9e28a1…
09-05 13:56:10	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0xdd28c3…
09-05 13:43:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x7d6559…
09-05 13:42:25	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0xb4682c…
09-05 13:14:45	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x9392ed…
09-05 13:11:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x87219f…
09-05 12:49:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xc40b17…
09-05 12:48:57	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	90	12¢	$11	0x926535…
09-05 11:36:39	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x2f987f…
09-05 11:32:25	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	450	7¢	$31	0x83ff56…
09-05 11:23:40	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	114	12¢	$14	0x495bfc…
09-05 11:12:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	18¢	$17	0xc91ef0…
09-05 11:09:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0xa37909…
09-05 11:08:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x216989…
09-05 05:22:37	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x2ee6ac…
09-04 18:12:27	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0x4b7bf0…
09-04 13:08:55	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x923379…
09-04 10:03:30	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$1	0xc70217…
09-04 07:03:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xbebc58…
09-04 07:02:45	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xdf1471…
09-03 16:14:42	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	26¢	$8	0xce7de6…
09-03 16:14:06	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x830508…
08-28 15:46:49	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x1c3284…
08-28 15:44:21	Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x33ad9f…
08-27 16:12:36	Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x70bc72…
08-27 16:08:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x1d0f86…
08-27 16:01:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	250	87¢	$218	0xa50ab0…
08-27 15:51:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x55d10d…
08-27 14:10:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x40f35e…
08-27 14:09:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x5e45f6…
08-27 14:09:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xcbb394…
08-27 14:09:13	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xff7294…
08-27 09:21:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x167859…
08-27 09:21:03	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x229a3e…
08-27 09:19:49	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x0baa9c…
08-27 09:18:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x68aa3d…
08-27 09:10:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x212188…
08-27 07:06:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0x320db0…
08-26 15:23:51	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0x7ee6fb…
08-26 14:17:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x5ba54b…
08-26 13:37:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	3¢	$1	0xbd0632…
08-26 13:01:51	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	Yes	SELL	28	14¢	$4	0x249ccc…
08-26 11:00:55	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0x6e7ea9…
08-26 09:29:07	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0xd45416…
08-26 03:31:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	3¢	$2	0xb8b7fd…
08-25 19:04:43	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	Yes	SELL	147	12¢	$18	0x7c3ff2…
08-25 19:01:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	193	2¢	$5	0x5d3168…
08-25 17:18:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xf8ad33…
08-25 17:00:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xefc35b…
08-25 13:45:27	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	74	9¢	$6	0xb9f2a8…
08-25 13:44:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x6769cf…
08-25 11:53:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x95ba31…
08-25 11:53:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x6e30ad…