Realized P&L
-$105
Unrealized P&L
+$5
Hit rate
60.1%
Resolved
1,677
Trades
17,988
lifetime
Volume
$312.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$343
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-28
last 10-26 03:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 262 days
Categories
Other
42% 69% +$9
Politics
25% 68% -$60
Crypto
20% 60% -$70
Sports
12% 71% +$11
Tech
1% 80% +$6
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? No -22 -$22 100¢ $-22 $0 06-03 07:51
Will Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? No -23 -$22 98¢ $-22 $0 08-30 19:49
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? No -22 -$21 94¢ $-21 +$0 05-27 00:43
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No -22 -$21 85¢ $-19 +$2 05-02 23:30
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +18 $18 98¢ $18 +$0 10-21 10:52
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191 No +20 $19 88¢ $18 -$1 08-21 21:03
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +19 $18 92¢ $18 $0 09-14 22:47
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +19 $16 94¢ $18 +$1 10-22 11:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +18 $17 99¢ $17 +$0 10-21 08:45
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +18 $17 94¢ $17 +$0 10-11 06:00
Plague pandemic in 2026? No +17 $17 98¢ $17 +$0 10-10 09:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +18 $17 96¢ $17 +$0 10-21 08:08
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No +18 $16 92¢ $17 +$1 10-22 03:30
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +18 $17 92¢ $17 +$0 10-25 22:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418 No +18 $17 92¢ $17 $0 10-14 15:48
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? No +19 $17 90¢ $17 +$0 10-26 03:15
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? No +18 $17 92¢ $17 $0 10-14 21:03
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? No +18 $17 93¢ $17 $0 10-20 17:20
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +18 $16 94¢ $17 +$0 10-21 21:04
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? No -2 -$1 94¢ $-1 $0 06-29 05:44
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 94¢ $0 $0 09-13 10:14
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Yes +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 10-19 02:22
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 09-05 08:34
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 08-15 03:19
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$1 09-01 08:53
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 09-19 20:51
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 10-03 13:45
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +0 -$1 100¢ $0 +$1 10-18 07:11
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 10-02 14:22
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? No +0 $0 99¢ $0 +$0 10-11 10:20