Realized P&L (7d)
+$4
Unrealized P&L
+$10
Hit rate
73.5%
Resolved (7d)
30
Trades (7d)
4
17,994 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$70
$312.9K lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$171
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-28
last 11-04 23:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 267 days
Categories
Other
42% 69% +$7
Politics
25% 68% -$55
Crypto
20% 61% -$69
Sports
12% 71% +$11
Tech
1% 81% +$6
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? No -22 -$22 100¢ $-22 $0 06-03 07:51
Will Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? No -23 -$22 99¢ $-22 $0 08-30 19:49
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? No -22 -$21 98¢ $-22 -$1 05-27 00:43
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? No +19 $17 92¢ $17 +$0 10-26 03:15
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +18 $16 97¢ $17 +$1 10-21 21:04
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +18 $17 98¢ $17 +$1 10-21 08:08
Plague pandemic in 2026? No +17 $17 99¢ $17 +$0 10-10 09:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No +18 $16 94¢ $17 +$1 10-22 03:30
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No -22 -$21 74¢ $-17 +$4 05-02 23:30
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? No -2 -$1 93¢ $-1 $0 06-29 05:44
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 88¢ $0 $0 09-13 10:14
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$1 09-01 08:53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +0 -$1 100¢ $0 +$1 10-18 07:11
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 08-15 03:19
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 06-29 21:52
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 99¢ $0 +$0 09-14 21:13
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 99¢ $0 +$0 09-15 01:41
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 $0 09-16 01:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No +0 -$1 98¢ $0 +$1 10-11 10:28
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 10-18 15:09
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +0 -$1 98¢ $0 +$1 10-21 13:16
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 10-03 01:49
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +0 $0 97¢ $0 +$0 09-08 17:22
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 +$0 10-22 11:12
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No +0 $1 97¢ $0 -$1 08-28 16:01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +0 -$1 97¢ $0 +$1 10-20 16:12
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 10-17 08:04
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 +$0 09-05 13:13
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 +$0 07-30 03:02
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +0 $0 96¢ $0 $0 10-22 03:10