Realized P&L (30d)
+$31
Unrealized P&L
+$9
Hit rate
69.1%
Resolved (30d)
91
Trades (30d)
444
17,994 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$6.68K
$312.9K lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$166
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-28
last 11-04 23:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 270 days
Categories
Other
42% 69% +$6
Politics
25% 68% -$55
Crypto
20% 61% -$70
Sports
12% 71% +$11
Tech
1% 81% +$6
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? No -23 -$22 99¢ $-22 $0 08-30 19:49
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? No -22 -$22 98¢ $-22 +$0 06-03 07:51
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? No -22 -$21 92¢ $-20 +$1 05-27 00:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +18 $17 98¢ $17 +$1 10-21 08:08
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +18 $16 97¢ $17 +$1 10-21 21:04
Plague pandemic in 2026? No +17 $17 99¢ $17 +$0 10-10 09:52
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? No +19 $17 90¢ $17 $0 10-26 03:15
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No -22 -$21 74¢ $-17 +$4 05-02 23:30
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No +18 $16 88¢ $16 +$0 10-22 03:30
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 90¢ $0 $0 09-13 10:14
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$1 09-01 08:53
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 06-29 21:52
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 09-14 21:13
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +0 $0 100¢ $0 +$0 08-15 03:19
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 99¢ $0 +$0 09-15 01:41
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 99¢ $0 +$0 10-03 01:49
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 $0 09-16 01:00
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 10-18 15:09
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 09-08 17:22
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No +0 $1 98¢ $0 -$1 08-28 16:01
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 10-22 11:12
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +0 -$1 98¢ $0 +$1 10-21 13:16
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +0 -$1 98¢ $0 +$1 10-20 16:12
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 +$0 10-31 00:11
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 $0 10-19 19:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 +$0 11-01 09:52
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 10-17 08:04
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 +$0 07-30 03:02
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 +$0 09-05 13:13
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +0 $0 96¢ $0 $0 10-22 03:10