Realized P&L
-$485
Unrealized P&L
-$15
Hit rate
51.8%
Resolved
637
Trades
3,775
lifetime
Volume
$23.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$131
28 positions
First seen
2026-02-14
last 10-15 19:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 131 days
Categories
Politics
54% 35% -$440
Other
32% 51% +$25
Tech
6% 58% -$5
Crypto
4% 43% -$10
Sports
4% 31% -$55
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
1 active day in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -20 -$19 97¢ $-19 $0 10-15 19:05
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -15 -$13 97¢ $-15 -$2 05-19 19:00
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No -12 -$5 96¢ $-12 -$7 05-03 15:09
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -11 -$7 86¢ $-10 -$3 04-28 15:58
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -10 -$9 94¢ $-9 $0 10-15 19:06
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -9 -$8 100¢ $-9 -$1 05-19 19:00
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes -10 -$5 81¢ $-8 -$3 06-07 13:53
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -7 -$6 95¢ $-7 $0 05-01 20:32
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes -5 -$2 100¢ $-5 -$3 05-19 19:01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -5 -$4 97¢ $-5 -$1 05-11 07:04
Trump out as President before 2027? No -5 -$4 96¢ $-5 $0 04-30 09:32
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes -7 -$5 62¢ $-4 +$1 05-19 19:01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes -15 -$4 26¢ $-4 +$0 10-15 19:05
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -30 -$5 12¢ $-4 +$1 05-19 19:00
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes -5 -$2 64¢ $-3 -$1 05-19 19:01
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -2 -$2 96¢ $-2 -$1 05-19 19:04
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No -3 -$2 62¢ $-2 +$1 05-15 16:02
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes -13 -$7 11¢ $-1 +$6 05-07 13:15
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31 Yes +19 $9 7¢ $1 -$8 07-04 10:08
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No -50 -$5 3¢ $-1 +$4 05-19 19:00
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No -1 $0 97¢ $-1 -$1 06-07 12:59
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No -4 -$1 28¢ $-1 +$0 06-07 13:53
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes -7 -$4 11¢ $-1 +$3 05-19 19:01
Kash Patel out by December 31? No -1 $0 80¢ $-1 $0 05-19 19:04
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes +10 $1 4¢ $0 -$1 06-22 00:36
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No -17 -$1 2¢ $-0 +$1 06-15 14:48
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Yes -4 -$1 5¢ $-0 +$1 05-19 19:00
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +35 $1 0¢ $0 -$1 06-05 17:38