Taut-Familiar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

366

lifetime

Volume

$360

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-25 08:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

62% 0% $-0

Politics

24% 0% $-0

Crypto

9% — —

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	33	$31	26	26	+0	open	—	02-20 01:20
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	12	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	07-17 01:36
Trump out as President by June 30?	8	$8	4	4	-0	open	—	06-13 07:41
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	07-11 02:58
will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	07-16 01:11
mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 8pt58	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	03-18 07:46
another us government shutdown by february 14	8	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	02-13 00:59
will microstrategy announce holding 740k btc by march 31	7	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	03-11 02:12
next thai prime minister chosen by march 31	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-18 07:46
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-23 02:44
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-18 01:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	6	$6	7	7	+0	Yes	$-0	01-20 09:26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	5	$5	2	3	-1	open	—	07-21 02:15
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-22 07:56
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-21 06:50
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	4	$4	2	2	-0	open	—	06-16 08:43
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-07 04:25
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-29 08:20
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-05 07:46
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-01 01:10
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-06 07:37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-13 03:22
jd vance out as vp by june 15	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-04 09:24
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-31 02:13
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-01 01:10
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-29 08:22
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	3	$3	3	1	+1	open	—	01-15 09:41
tulsi gabbard out by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-24 04:11
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-30 01:50
highest temperature in taipei on march 22 2026 20c	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-21 06:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 08:55:22	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x06d3f3…
07-25 08:38:58	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x899457…
07-23 02:44:25	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x079055…
07-23 02:04:00	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x09abbe…
07-21 02:16:42	will actually be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260715171600427	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xfb959f…
07-21 02:15:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x49d573…
07-21 02:02:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x6f5bbb…
07-21 02:01:45	will actually be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast 20260715171600427	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x18c915…
07-20 04:48:58	Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xc89968…
07-20 04:47:49	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x0df706…
07-20 03:49:31	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x06a44d…
07-20 03:48:40	Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x352d5a…
07-18 01:38:36	will xrp reach 1pt6 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x3abcd5…
07-18 01:37:27	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xba4368…
07-18 01:17:52	will xrp reach 1pt6 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x47914d…
07-18 01:17:01	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4903ce…
07-17 01:36:43	will xrp reach 2pt2 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe126a3…
07-17 01:36:05	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5bae8d…
07-17 01:27:59	will xrp reach 2pt2 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x430689…
07-17 01:26:15	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4c7588…
07-16 01:11:22	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xbd984e…
07-16 01:10:41	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xede9e3…
07-16 01:03:59	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa974e6…
07-16 01:03:20	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x647e7f…
07-15 02:20:05	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0cf723…
07-15 02:01:47	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5dbdc9…
07-14 01:31:50	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6b9777…
07-14 01:31:07	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd0bd0f…
07-14 01:17:41	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0496b6…
07-14 01:14:25	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x577e31…
07-13 03:13:38	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5caf03…
07-13 02:56:28	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xce4f37…
07-11 02:58:56	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1eea65…
07-11 02:37:56	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x129aab…
07-10 02:08:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x10527a…
07-10 01:46:29	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xdf722d…
07-09 01:13:31	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x219f09…
07-09 01:02:07	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x980723…
07-08 01:54:55	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x123d9c…
07-08 01:38:22	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x476349…
07-07 01:38:05	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1a7970…
07-07 01:25:22	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x10af43…
07-06 02:39:52	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe25863…
07-06 02:24:53	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb55d5a…
07-04 01:43:44	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x210003…
07-04 01:43:26	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6c6a22…
07-04 01:22:20	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x919dfe…
07-04 01:20:13	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5900ce…
07-03 02:25:46	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa4fcaa…
07-03 02:25:14	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x055939…
07-03 02:17:58	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc8dcdc…
07-03 02:17:14	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x559a7f…
07-02 02:33:16	Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe769d8…
07-02 02:32:53	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x39e6e0…
07-02 02:27:59	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd74f8f…
07-02 02:26:35	Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc3b2fc…
07-01 01:10:40	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x40adda…
07-01 01:10:02	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3c6081…
07-01 01:01:40	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbd9789…
07-01 01:00:25	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9ad7bf…
06-30 02:17:08	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x4f8675…
06-30 02:16:26	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa9853c…
06-30 02:00:37	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x359176…
06-30 01:58:34	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x505baf…
06-27 01:56:40	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd548dd…
06-27 01:48:04	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xaaa728…
06-26 10:12:47	Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5560fe…
06-26 10:05:23	Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfdd9b2…
06-25 03:49:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x343cf1…
06-25 03:35:37	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x95dfbd…
06-23 09:10:38	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x960624…
06-23 09:10:13	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf49ef3…
06-23 09:06:46	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x48ac3e…
06-23 09:06:04	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7d04d7…
06-22 07:17:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe95392…
06-22 07:17:05	will pakistan recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x5a65dc…
06-22 07:08:17	will pakistan recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x7ae449…
06-22 06:59:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7bf707…
06-21 09:54:32	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcee705…
06-21 09:54:16	israeli forces enter tyre by june 30	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0b4080…
06-21 09:46:23	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8d66e0…
06-21 09:44:08	israeli forces enter tyre by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x296a8d…
06-18 09:28:05	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd8b34b…
06-18 09:18:32	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb62ae1…
06-17 08:00:46	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by june 30	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe0ed97…
06-17 07:59:58	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1f56ef…
06-17 07:52:23	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4cc61a…
06-17 07:51:05	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2d5b2f…
06-16 08:44:04	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x11b204…
06-16 08:43:34	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x57034e…
06-16 08:39:37	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb6203a…
06-16 08:38:46	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbee070…
06-15 08:59:21	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x119ef5…
06-15 08:58:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xbe86b2…
06-15 08:48:22	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x233e79…
06-13 07:41:06	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd577f0…
06-13 07:33:03	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1fce24…
06-12 08:46:21	us x china tariff agreement by june 30	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3fa11b…
06-12 08:32:18	us x china tariff agreement by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x29e384…
06-11 08:45:09	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x73a66f…