Taut-Familiar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

322

lifetime

Volume

$316

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-04 01:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

64% 0% $-0

Politics

25% 0% $-0

Crypto

8% — —

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		-1	$-1	96¢	$-1	$-0	06-15 08:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	33	$31	26	26	+0	open	—	02-20 01:20
Trump out as President by June 30?	8	$8	4	4	-0	open	—	06-13 07:41
mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 8pt58	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	03-18 07:46
another us government shutdown by february 14	8	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	02-13 00:59
will microstrategy announce holding 740k btc by march 31	7	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	03-11 02:12
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	-0	open	—	06-27 01:56
next thai prime minister chosen by march 31	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-18 07:46
will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-04 01:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	6	$6	7	7	+0	Yes	$-0	01-20 09:26
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-22 07:56
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-21 06:50
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	4	$4	2	2	-0	open	—	06-16 08:43
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-07 04:25
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-29 08:20
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-05 07:46
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-01 01:10
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-06 07:37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-13 03:22
jd vance out as vp by june 15	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-04 09:24
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-31 02:13
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-01 01:10
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-29 08:22
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	3	$3	1	2	-1	open	—	06-15 08:58
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	3	$3	3	1	+1	open	—	01-15 09:41
tulsi gabbard out by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-24 04:11
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-30 01:50
highest temperature in taipei on march 22 2026 20c	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-21 06:49
highest temperature in hong kong on march 28 2026 18corbelow	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-26 03:23
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	-0	open	—	06-10 08:53
will trump say nancy or pelosi this week march 22	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-25 09:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 01:43:44	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x210003…
07-04 01:43:26	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6c6a22…
07-04 01:22:20	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x919dfe…
07-04 01:20:13	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5900ce…
07-03 02:25:46	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa4fcaa…
07-03 02:25:14	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x055939…
07-03 02:17:58	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc8dcdc…
07-03 02:17:14	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x559a7f…
07-02 02:33:16	Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe769d8…
07-02 02:32:53	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x39e6e0…
07-02 02:27:59	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd74f8f…
07-02 02:26:35	Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc3b2fc…
07-01 01:10:40	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x40adda…
07-01 01:10:02	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3c6081…
07-01 01:01:40	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbd9789…
07-01 01:00:25	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9ad7bf…
06-30 02:17:08	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x4f8675…
06-30 02:16:26	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa9853c…
06-30 02:00:37	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x359176…
06-30 01:58:34	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x505baf…
06-27 01:56:40	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd548dd…
06-27 01:48:04	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xaaa728…
06-26 10:12:47	Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5560fe…
06-26 10:05:23	Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfdd9b2…
06-25 03:49:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x343cf1…
06-25 03:35:37	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x95dfbd…
06-23 09:10:38	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x960624…
06-23 09:10:13	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf49ef3…
06-23 09:06:46	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x48ac3e…
06-23 09:06:04	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7d04d7…
06-22 07:17:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe95392…
06-22 07:17:05	will pakistan recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x5a65dc…
06-22 07:08:17	will pakistan recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x7ae449…
06-22 06:59:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7bf707…
06-21 09:54:32	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcee705…
06-21 09:54:16	israeli forces enter tyre by june 30	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0b4080…
06-21 09:46:23	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8d66e0…
06-21 09:44:08	israeli forces enter tyre by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x296a8d…
06-18 09:28:05	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd8b34b…
06-18 09:18:32	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb62ae1…
06-17 08:00:46	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by june 30	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe0ed97…
06-17 07:59:58	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1f56ef…
06-17 07:52:23	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4cc61a…
06-17 07:51:05	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2d5b2f…
06-16 08:44:04	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x11b204…
06-16 08:43:34	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x57034e…
06-16 08:39:37	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb6203a…
06-16 08:38:46	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbee070…
06-15 08:59:21	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x119ef5…
06-15 08:58:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xbe86b2…
06-15 08:48:22	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x233e79…
06-13 07:41:06	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd577f0…
06-13 07:33:03	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1fce24…
06-12 08:46:21	us x china tariff agreement by june 30	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3fa11b…
06-12 08:32:18	us x china tariff agreement by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x29e384…
06-11 08:45:09	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x73a66f…
06-11 08:30:58	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdda763…
06-10 08:54:45	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x28d8ab…
06-10 08:53:54	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x100935…
06-10 08:41:27	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5be28f…
06-10 08:40:39	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x571fa5…
06-09 08:04:12	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xafdc17…
06-09 08:03:06	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xce29a9…
06-09 07:57:43	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8d6901…
06-09 07:55:45	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x82cd38…
06-08 07:29:28	bitcoin above 54k on june 11 2026	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x20a54a…
06-08 07:21:09	bitcoin above 54k on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbe87de…
06-06 07:37:49	Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x82f752…
06-06 07:37:18	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9dcc03…
06-06 07:18:19	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x00f56b…
06-06 07:17:39	Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7ad8bc…
06-06 07:15:36	Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4850f5…
06-06 07:14:13	Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x32c101…
06-05 07:46:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x20d174…
06-05 07:33:45	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7108a6…
06-04 09:24:52	jd vance out as vp by june 15	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5c43bc…
06-04 09:24:33	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0b1b07…
06-04 09:18:40	jd vance out as vp by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4384d0…
06-04 09:16:04	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5e41e6…
06-03 08:24:57	Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe268cd…
06-03 08:23:59	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdde3ab…
06-03 08:22:19	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7590d3…
06-03 08:21:09	Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4b05c6…
06-02 07:18:50	JD Vance out as VP by June 15?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xebc4cc…
06-02 07:17:12	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x34e1a1…
06-02 07:03:40	JD Vance out as VP by June 15?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5ce23e…
06-02 07:02:23	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x562fe4…
06-01 09:13:16	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1bee6f…
06-01 09:12:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x65993d…
06-01 08:53:05	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf8c6ef…
06-01 08:51:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x580a81…
05-30 03:02:25	Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x2c9ab9…
05-30 02:56:24	Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xdf5d29…
05-29 08:22:02	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xd0de90…
05-29 08:20:31	Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3f25b9…
05-29 08:07:53	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x62177b…
05-29 08:04:55	Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x975b04…
05-28 08:50:54	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xc82e11…
05-28 08:49:14	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x11e439…
05-28 08:20:35	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb73be9…