Lavish-Geology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.0%

Resolved

Trades

188

lifetime

Volume

$2.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 06-23 01:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

56% 62% $-20

Politics

26% 67% $-17

Crypto

10% 100% +$2

Sports

6% 80% +$7

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$232	153	153	+0	open	—	05-11 16:57
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B	9	$122	196	96	+100	open	—	04-30 01:12
Games Total: O/U 2.5	4	$100	59	59	+0	open	—	04-29 20:05
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	3	$100	66	66	+0	open	—	05-07 12:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$86	61	61	+0	open	—	05-23 23:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$85	52	52	+0	open	—	05-14 00:21
Will Vitality make it to the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 Grand Final?	4	$83	46	46	+0	open	—	05-02 22:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$70	96	0	+96	open	—	04-30 10:23
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$65	38	38	+0	open	—	05-02 23:38
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	4	$57	32	32	+0	open	—	04-29 20:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$54	30	30	+0	open	—	05-11 16:57
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 6AM ET	2	$53	29	29	+0	open	—	04-30 10:55
BNB Up or Down - April 30, 6AM ET	5	$52	30	30	+0	open	—	04-30 10:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$47	29	29	+0	No	+$7	05-06 08:26
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)	4	$46	31	31	+0	open	—	04-29 23:22
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #4 Playoffs	2	$45	25	25	+0	open	—	04-30 15:59
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6AM ET	2	$45	41	41	+0	open	—	04-30 10:35
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	2	$43	23	23	+0	open	—	04-29 21:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	1	$40	385	0	+385	open	—	05-02 02:09
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B	3	$33	35	19	+17	open	—	04-29 21:05
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	4	$33	26	26	+0	Pistons	+$3	05-08 01:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$30	33	0	+33	Yes	$-30	04-30 10:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$30	5	33	-29	open	—	06-12 03:07
Canadiens vs. Lightning	2	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	04-30 02:27
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	1	$25	26	0	+26	open	—	04-30 00:51
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	2	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	05-11 16:57
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	3	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	04-29 19:41
Will Trump post "Blockade" on Truth Social this week?	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	05-06 00:26
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	1	$22	0	24	-24	open	—	06-23 01:40
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	04-30 16:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-23 01:40:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	13	86¢	$11	0xa4db15…
06-23 01:40:35	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	24	90¢	$22	0x852894…
06-18 18:38:28	cs2 furia 9z 2026 06 18	FURIA	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0xfa64b0…
06-18 17:47:11	cs2 furia 9z 2026 06 18 game1	FURIA	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd8cc0e…
06-18 17:29:05	cs2 furia 9z 2026 06 18	FURIA	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4034c0…
06-18 17:13:31	cs2 furia 9z 2026 06 18	9z	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0928b9…
06-12 03:16:07	cs2 furia mouz 2026 06 12	FURIA	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x950bd2…
06-12 03:12:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x276437…
06-12 03:07:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	33	80¢	$27	0x2d4c12…
06-04 03:08:21	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$11	0x861d7f…
05-29 11:51:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6d4732…
05-28 14:34:09	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x5a74a7…
05-24 14:44:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x25f37b…
05-24 14:44:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x127265…
05-24 14:41:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x460543…
05-23 23:02:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	61	74¢	$46	0x99c94c…
05-21 23:37:47	Will Trump say "Renovation" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x13a154…
05-21 23:37:24	Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x675361…
05-21 23:37:17	Will Trump say "Iran" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x8f5eb9…
05-21 23:37:08	Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Pool" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xc9ee47…
05-21 23:36:58	Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x01911a…
05-19 22:02:57	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0xb8ea5c…
05-16 17:23:15	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs	Legacy	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd51368…
05-15 22:59:11	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x6ea197…
05-15 22:56:39	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x3684b0…
05-15 22:55:16	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xbb74a5…
05-15 17:44:53	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	FURIA	SELL	10	82¢	$9	0x26d8a6…
05-15 15:05:45	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	FURIA	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4e0e66…
05-15 15:05:27	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	FURIA	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xce48ac…
05-15 14:56:35	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	FURIA	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9dddf2…
05-15 14:56:30	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	FURIA	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x937cf6…
05-14 00:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x55d506…
05-14 00:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x4a0c0c…
05-14 00:25:32	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	Natus Vincere	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xaa5a13…
05-14 00:21:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	52	86¢	$45	0x4ed37c…
05-12 20:30:53	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	Vitality	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0x3e8fd0…
05-12 18:50:40	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	Vitality	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x65ebb0…
05-12 18:50:12	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	Vitality	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xc6aa11…
05-12 14:40:09	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	Natus Vincere	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x5ec675…
05-12 14:39:55	Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	FUT Esports	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xe92391…
05-12 14:18:50	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	17	3¢	$0	0x79d784…
05-12 14:00:52	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x4d72fb…
05-12 13:49:31	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x0f2825…
05-12 13:45:40	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	8	19¢	$2	0xc0eeb5…
05-12 12:55:35	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xba4d79…
05-11 19:51:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x393c7a…
05-11 19:50:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xf68240…
05-11 16:57:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xbe4f39…
05-11 16:57:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	14	87¢	$12	0x91b307…
05-11 16:57:22	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0x9cd534…
05-11 15:49:36	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	FURIA	SELL	5	73¢	$3	0x3a9a33…
05-11 15:22:48	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	FURIA	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x557daf…
05-11 03:19:26	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	7	79¢	$5	0x950769…
05-10 02:19:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x75787f…
05-09 14:11:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x51450c…
05-09 02:44:45	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x6cf5f4…
05-08 17:01:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x0f9732…
05-08 04:30:01	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x988139…
05-08 04:29:40	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x1071f0…
05-08 01:10:10	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x94f7cb…
05-08 01:05:46	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xff5f1a…
05-08 00:42:31	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	SELL	16	73¢	$12	0x21dfed…
05-07 20:46:21	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xc84819…
05-07 20:46:07	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x135d67…
05-07 19:05:31	Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x1f9984…
05-07 12:03:46	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	66	75¢	$50	0xb25625…
05-07 00:51:08	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xb5271c…
05-07 00:48:20	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xb601c1…
05-07 00:47:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x0c736a…
05-07 00:46:38	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xacddd5…
05-06 14:22:12	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yannick Hanfmann	Yannick Hanfmann	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x9fbcc8…
05-06 13:05:56	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yannick Hanfmann	Yannick Hanfmann	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xc07545…
05-06 12:34:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xc3f9fd…
05-06 08:35:12	Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x110411…
05-06 08:33:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xf10d48…
05-06 08:26:14	Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x18cb0b…
05-06 08:26:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0xa5de47…
05-06 08:16:22	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 4 2026?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x73fe9a…
05-06 02:03:52	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb65731…
05-06 00:48:00	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x8811b8…
05-06 00:46:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x27a606…
05-06 00:45:36	BNB Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x621ad0…
05-06 00:45:02	BNB Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2d5a1e…
05-06 00:42:18	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	Astralis	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x55a08c…
05-06 00:42:06	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	Legacy	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x782533…
05-06 00:40:54	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x4ff9ce…
05-06 00:26:18	Will Trump post "Blockade" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x569863…
05-06 00:26:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of May 4 2026?	No	SELL	11	72¢	$8	0xf4c36c…
05-05 19:36:28	Will Starmer say "Jewish" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x0b5641…
05-05 19:36:24	Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x937ac3…
05-05 19:36:14	Will Starmer say "Chancellor" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x749d29…
05-05 19:36:02	Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xb8d91d…
05-05 19:35:56	Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x26c1aa…
05-05 19:35:50	Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xab5c34…
05-05 19:32:36	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x4ee6e8…
05-04 15:32:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $735 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x21b474…
05-04 10:18:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0xcb3717…
05-03 09:48:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x4afdcb…
05-03 01:13:08	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x476a9e…
05-03 00:21:56	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7f51eb…