Tender-Tradition 0xef4a95…e45eeb
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Realized P&L (30d)
-$17
Unrealized P&L
+$17
Hit rate
65.8%
Resolved (30d)
51
Trades (30d)
257
3,649 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$1.90K
$32.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$863
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-19
last 10-31 17:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 156 days
Categories
Other
48% 71% -$103
Politics
32% 80% -$125
Sports
12% 60% +$212
Tech
5% 75% -$9
Crypto
3% 69% -$19
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
54 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +83 $80 97¢ $81 +$0 10-09 08:55
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes +81 $78 100¢ $80 +$3 10-29 05:37
Trump out as President before 2027? No +71 $62 96¢ $68 +$6 09-13 18:27
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +64 $63 98¢ $63 +$0 10-29 17:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +55 $53 97¢ $53 +$1 10-13 05:16
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No +49 $45 94¢ $46 +$1 10-08 14:27
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes +41 $40 98¢ $40 +$0 10-29 12:30
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No +41 $37 97¢ $40 +$3 09-16 21:22
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No +39 $37 96¢ $37 +$0 10-29 17:41
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +35 $33 96¢ $34 +$1 10-01 06:18
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? No +30 $28 95¢ $28 +$0 09-22 15:17
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +28 $27 98¢ $27 +$0 10-29 12:36
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No +28 $24 95¢ $26 +$2 08-02 00:11
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? No +26 $25 100¢ $26 +$0 10-29 12:20
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No +25 $25 96¢ $24 $0 08-05 02:08
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +24 $22 92¢ $22 +$0 10-29 17:54
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +22 $21 98¢ $21 +$0 10-01 06:57
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No +21 $20 96¢ $20 +$0 09-13 20:14
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No +18 $16 94¢ $17 +$1 05-10 11:49
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +16 $15 96¢ $15 +$0 10-10 01:49
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? No -15 -$16 98¢ $-15 +$1 10-28 12:19
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +67 $12 17¢ $11 -$1 09-28 06:37
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +9 $8 96¢ $9 +$1 08-23 23:43
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes +9 $8 94¢ $9 +$1 09-14 18:17
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -9 -$1 94¢ $-8 -$8 05-26 10:56
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +8 $8 97¢ $8 +$0 08-04 20:00
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +19 $6 42¢ $8 +$2 09-16 22:13
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No +8 $8 98¢ $8 +$0 10-28 20:02
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +9 $8 96¢ $8 +$0 06-07 04:37
will anthropics valuation hit low 700b by december 31 928 No +8 $8 97¢ $8 +$0 07-21 21:15