Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?
open
Total volume
$883
Trades
47
Unique wallets
21
Liquidity
$597
Latest YES mid
100¢
Latest NO mid
0¢
End date
2026-02-28
First seen
2026-06-10
last 06-19 16:42
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+11.8¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $567
vs crowd: 88% YES on $774)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | $596 | $60 | +$536 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $65 | $23 | +$42 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 6 | $18 | $9 | +$9 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $567 | — | +$567 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $33 | $61 | $28 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $2 | $2 |
| Below median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | $6 | $6 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 10 | $83 | $23 | +$60 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | +630 | $567 | $567 | 5 | 06-19 16:32 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +254 | $60 | $60 | 6 | 06-19 16:32 |
| Sunny-Hype 0x4247…455f | No | +200 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-19 16:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x2d21…6dfe | No | +176 | $6 | $12 | 3 | 06-19 15:23 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +122 | $29 | $29 | 2 | 06-18 20:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x6a48…7d3b | Yes | +55 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 06-19 16:42 |
| Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | No | +50 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-19 16:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | +49 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 06-19 15:15 |
| Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | +32 | $1 | $1 | 5 | 06-19 15:23 |
| Stable-Continuity 0xde8e…6900 | Yes | +23 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 06-19 15:15 |
| Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | +12 | $2 | $10 | 3 | 06-19 15:15 |
| Another-Excerpt 0x0476…50b3 | Yes | +7 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 06-19 15:17 |
| Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | Yes | +7 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-13 04:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x6ac2…99bf | Yes | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-13 04:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xd2ff…f245 | No | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-19 16:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xc19a…66f9 | Yes | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-18 15:09 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 16:42:46 | (anonymous) 0x6a48…7d3b | Yes | BUY | 55 | 100¢ | $55 | 0xbeb1bc… |
| 06-19 16:42:46 | Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | No | BUY | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbeb1bc… |
| 06-19 16:42:46 | (anonymous) 0xd2ff…f245 | No | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbeb1bc… |
| 06-19 16:32:58 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1e7ca2… |
| 06-19 16:32:58 | Sunny-Hype 0x4247…455f | No | BUY | 200 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x1e7ca2… |
| 06-19 16:32:58 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 250 | 99¢ | $247 | 0x1e7ca2… |
| 06-19 15:23:28 | (anonymous) 0x2d21…6dfe | No | BUY | 166 | 3¢ | $5 | 0xd3538a… |
| 06-19 15:23:28 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd3538a… |
| 06-19 15:23:28 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 191 | 97¢ | $185 | 0xd3538a… |
| 06-19 15:17:19 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | BUY | 4 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x598ced… |
| 06-19 15:17:19 | Another-Excerpt 0x0476…50b3 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x598ced… |
| 06-19 15:17:19 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | BUY | 4 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd5e74f… |
| 06-19 15:17:19 | Another-Excerpt 0x0476…50b3 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 99¢ | $4 | 0xd5e74f… |
| 06-19 15:15:52 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x101fe0… |
| 06-19 15:15:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x101fe0… |
| 06-19 15:15:52 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 95¢ | $26 | 0x101fe0… |
| 06-19 15:15:32 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | BUY | 12 | 31¢ | $4 | 0x3e0f49… |
| 06-19 15:15:32 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 49 | 66¢ | $32 | 0x3e0f49… |
| 06-19 15:15:32 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0x3e0f49… |
| 06-19 15:15:32 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | BUY | 22 | 32¢ | $7 | 0x3e0f49… |
| 06-19 15:15:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 18 | 33¢ | $6 | 0xe4257b… |
| 06-19 15:15:11 | Stable-Continuity 0xde8e…6900 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 67¢ | $12 | 0xe4257b… |
| 06-19 15:15:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 114 | 33¢ | $37 | 0x5ebc75… |
| 06-19 15:15:01 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 114 | 67¢ | $76 | 0x5ebc75… |
| 06-18 20:46:16 | Artistic-Firm 0x78d0…a337 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x56ddaf… |
| 06-18 20:46:16 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 89 | 27¢ | $24 | 0x145e62… |
| 06-18 20:46:16 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x145e62… |
| 06-18 20:46:16 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | SELL | 5 | 74¢ | $4 | 0x145e62… |
| 06-18 20:46:16 | Stable-Continuity 0xde8e…6900 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x56ddaf… |
| 06-18 20:46:16 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 115 | 25¢ | $28 | 0x145e62… |
| 06-18 15:09:13 | (anonymous) 0xc19a…66f9 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 68¢ | $2 | 0xd04b64… |
| 06-18 15:09:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 3 | 32¢ | $1 | 0xd04b64… |
| 06-14 11:45:30 | Playful-Badger 0x86ba…3694 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 23¢ | $0 | 0x1fcb0e… |
| 06-14 11:45:30 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 23¢ | $0 | 0x1fcb0e… |
| 06-13 04:45:13 | (anonymous) 0x6ac2…99bf | Yes | BUY | 5 | 56¢ | $3 | 0xcd9783… |
| 06-13 04:45:13 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0xcd9783… |
| 06-13 04:16:48 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | Yes | BUY | 7 | 45¢ | $3 | 0x97b2aa… |
| 06-13 04:16:48 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 45¢ | $3 | 0x97b2aa… |
| 06-12 20:32:33 | Ironclad-Diamond 0x2869…527d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 40¢ | $2 | 0x0d1f76… |
| 06-12 20:32:33 | (anonymous) 0x2d21…6dfe | No | SELL | 5 | 60¢ | $3 | 0x0d1f76… |
| 06-12 18:03:52 | (anonymous) 0x2d21…6dfe | No | BUY | 15 | 28¢ | $4 | 0xc15d94… |
| 06-12 18:03:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 50 | 27¢ | $14 | 0xc15d94… |
| 06-12 18:03:52 | Golden-Unemployment 0x7365…64da | No | SELL | 92 | 27¢ | $25 | 0xc15d94… |
| 06-12 18:03:52 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | BUY | 27 | 26¢ | $7 | 0xc15d94… |
| 06-10 22:08:45 | Golden-Unemployment 0x7365…64da | No | SELL | 28 | 85¢ | $24 | 0xf2ced9… |
| 06-10 22:08:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 16¢ | $5 | 0xf2ced9… |
| 06-10 22:08:45 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 61 | 16¢ | $9 | 0xf2ced9… |