Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
open
Total volume
$660
Trades
55
Unique wallets
22
Liquidity
$5,632
Latest YES mid
40¢
Latest NO mid
60¢
End date
2026-05-10
First seen
2026-05-09
last 05-10 01:41
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+5.5¢
(top1%: 57% YES on $306
vs crowd: 52% YES on $508)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | $95 | $118 | $24 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $88 | $12 | +$76 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 17 | $81 | $114 | $33 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | $175 | $130 | +$45 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $57 | $4 | +$53 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $9 | $2 | +$7 |
| Median | 1 | — | $5 | $5 |
| Below median | 8 | $9 | $4 | +$5 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 3 | $8 | $98 | $90 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Up | +215 | $92 | $92 | 5 | 05-10 01:41 |
| Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Down | +170 | $116 | $116 | 3 | 05-10 01:36 |
| Noted-Crown-Salute 0x6177…f59d | Down | +159 | $95 | $95 | 1 | 05-10 01:14 |
| Exotic-Utility 0xa806…2c7c | Up | +135 | $81 | $81 | 2 | 05-10 00:15 |
| Frivolous-Insurance 0x7758…42a9 | Up | +127 | $50 | $50 | 2 | 05-10 01:06 |
| Extra-Small-Screamer 0xd325…8c5f | Up | +20 | $9 | $9 | 4 | 05-10 01:00 |
| Exotic-Utility 0xa806…2c7c | Down | +20 | $9 | $9 | 3 | 05-10 00:51 |
| Gigantic-Apology 0x8320…904e | Up | +15 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 05-10 01:00 |
| Frivolous-Insurance 0x7758…42a9 | Down | +11 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-10 00:46 |
| Bare-Centre 0xf31f…3507 | Up | +10 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-09 23:59 |
| Average-Fedelini 0x03ff…5e3a | Down | +10 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-10 00:00 |
| Demanding-Tapioca 0xd3f6…ad63 | Up | +7 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-10 01:06 |
| Black-And-White-Cleat 0x83ac…47af | Up | +6 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-10 01:36 |
| Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Up | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-10 00:10 |
| Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-10 00:00 |
| Extra-Small-Screamer 0xd325…8c5f | Down | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-10 00:53 |
| Sophisticated-Leptocephalus 0x4605…b773 | Down | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-10 00:08 |
| Fantastic-Tablet 0x2e85…55a5 | Down | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-10 00:00 |
| Fantastic-Tablet 0x2e85…55a5 | Up | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-10 00:00 |
| Sophisticated-Analgesia 0xdc84…536c | Up | +5 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-10 01:01 |
| Modest-Journal 0xe911…3947 | Down | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-10 01:36 |
| Menacing-Participation 0xb6b7…b9e1 | Down | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-10 01:03 |
| Carefree-Compassionate 0x53e0…f4ee | Up | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-10 01:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xa117…7411 | Up | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-10 00:46 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 01:41:57 | Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Up | BUY | 14 | 37¢ | $5 | 0x53b71e… |
| 05-10 01:36:44 | Modest-Journal 0xe911…3947 | Down | BUY | 3 | 70¢ | $2 | 0x6552de… |
| 05-10 01:36:44 | Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Down | BUY | 133 | 69¢ | $92 | 0xfa5860… |
| 05-10 01:36:44 | Nifty-Taxpayer 0x69a0…f29b | Up | SELL | 2 | 30¢ | $1 | 0xfbf86b… |
| 05-10 01:36:26 | Black-And-White-Cleat 0x83ac…47af | Up | BUY | 6 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x567b9d… |
| 05-10 01:36:23 | Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Down | BUY | 15 | 66¢ | $10 | 0xb29da5… |
| 05-10 01:31:11 | Menacing-Participation 0xb6b7…b9e1 | Up | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0x2f28e6… |
| 05-10 01:30:17 | Near-Strike 0x679c…afff | Down | SELL | 1 | 62¢ | $1 | 0x31e736… |
| 05-10 01:30:15 | Near-Strike 0x679c…afff | Down | SELL | 5 | 62¢ | $3 | 0xa29fbb… |
| 05-10 01:30:13 | Gigantic-Apology 0x8320…904e | Down | SELL | 21 | 66¢ | $14 | 0xa4ccca… |
| 05-10 01:28:42 | Talkative-Shutdown 0x1b1e…043e | Up | SELL | 10 | 31¢ | $3 | 0x1ea340… |
| 05-10 01:28:37 | Menacing-Participation 0xb6b7…b9e1 | Up | SELL | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0xeb965d… |
| 05-10 01:25:07 | Gigantic-Apology 0x8320…904e | Down | SELL | 19 | 68¢ | $13 | 0x3a4dce… |
| 05-10 01:14:46 | Noted-Crown-Salute 0x6177…f59d | Down | BUY | 159 | 60¢ | $95 | 0x2c42b3… |
| 05-10 01:14:34 | Carefree-Compassionate 0x53e0…f4ee | Up | BUY | 2 | 43¢ | $1 | 0x0df3ef… |
| 05-10 01:14:32 | Noted-Crown-Salute 0x6177…f59d | Up | SELL | 250 | 41¢ | $103 | 0xd20c9f… |
| 05-10 01:06:13 | Ordinary-Maelstrom 0x4477…7ca3 | Down | SELL | 5 | 64¢ | $3 | 0xbefd09… |
| 05-10 01:06:06 | Frivolous-Insurance 0x7758…42a9 | Up | BUY | 65 | 37¢ | $24 | 0xcd477b… |
| 05-10 01:06:01 | Demanding-Tapioca 0xd3f6…ad63 | Up | BUY | 7 | 36¢ | $3 | 0x567648… |
| 05-10 01:05:59 | Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Down | BUY | 22 | 62¢ | $14 | 0xfe8c50… |
| 05-10 01:05:50 | Frivolous-Insurance 0x7758…42a9 | Up | BUY | 62 | 42¢ | $26 | 0xe28fe5… |
| 05-10 01:04:53 | Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Up | BUY | 19 | 39¢ | $7 | 0x5c2e51… |
| 05-10 01:03:48 | Menacing-Participation 0xb6b7…b9e1 | Down | BUY | 3 | 62¢ | $2 | 0xe90929… |
| 05-10 01:03:46 | Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Up | BUY | 12 | 38¢ | $5 | 0x70948f… |
| 05-10 01:01:16 | Sophisticated-Analgesia 0xdc84…536c | Up | BUY | 2 | 44¢ | $1 | 0x7e3659… |
| 05-10 01:01:12 | Sophisticated-Analgesia 0xdc84…536c | Up | BUY | 2 | 44¢ | $1 | 0x795188… |
| 05-10 01:01:07 | Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Up | BUY | 155 | 44¢ | $68 | 0xa3b440… |
| 05-10 01:00:53 | Extra-Small-Screamer 0xd325…8c5f | Up | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0xa3af3c… |
| 05-10 01:00:23 | Extra-Small-Screamer 0xd325…8c5f | Up | BUY | 5 | 46¢ | $2 | 0x81ccf2… |
| 05-10 01:00:00 | Gigantic-Apology 0x8320…904e | Up | BUY | 10 | 47¢ | $5 | 0xfe2cd3… |
| 05-10 01:00:00 | Near-Strike 0x679c…afff | Down | SELL | 5 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x05e385… |
| 05-10 00:59:53 | Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Up | BUY | 15 | 45¢ | $7 | 0x24bccc… |
| 05-10 00:55:55 | Gigantic-Apology 0x8320…904e | Up | BUY | 5 | 46¢ | $2 | 0xd6ec25… |
| 05-10 00:54:47 | Menacing-Participation 0xb6b7…b9e1 | Up | BUY | 2 | 48¢ | $1 | 0x3ecca5… |
| 05-10 00:54:14 | Extra-Small-Screamer 0xd325…8c5f | Up | BUY | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x0f82c8… |
| 05-10 00:53:42 | Extra-Small-Screamer 0xd325…8c5f | Down | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x9339fa… |
| 05-10 00:53:23 | Near-Strike 0x679c…afff | Down | SELL | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x5fd54d… |
| 05-10 00:51:07 | Exotic-Utility 0xa806…2c7c | Down | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x4bba33… |
| 05-10 00:50:35 | Extra-Small-Screamer 0xd325…8c5f | Up | BUY | 5 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x23be8d… |
| 05-10 00:50:09 | Exotic-Utility 0xa806…2c7c | Down | BUY | 5 | 47¢ | $2 | 0x9a0f23… |
| 05-10 00:50:05 | Exotic-Utility 0xa806…2c7c | Down | BUY | 10 | 45¢ | $4 | 0x3851fe… |
| 05-10 00:49:37 | Menacing-Participation 0xb6b7…b9e1 | Up | SELL | 4 | 55¢ | $2 | 0x1b932b… |
| 05-10 00:46:23 | (anonymous) 0xa117…7411 | Up | BUY | 2 | 59¢ | $1 | 0x9c875c… |
| 05-10 00:46:21 | Frivolous-Insurance 0x7758…42a9 | Down | BUY | 11 | 40¢ | $4 | 0x61e625… |
| 05-10 00:31:17 | Noted-Crown-Salute 0x6177…f59d | Up | BUY | 5 | 57¢ | $3 | 0xe36e85… |
| 05-10 00:15:30 | Near-Strike 0x679c…afff | Down | SELL | 5 | 40¢ | $2 | 0x84deed… |
| 05-10 00:15:30 | Exotic-Utility 0xa806…2c7c | Up | BUY | 120 | 60¢ | $72 | 0x23256b… |
| 05-10 00:13:41 | Exotic-Utility 0xa806…2c7c | Up | BUY | 15 | 58¢ | $9 | 0x6eea30… |
| 05-10 00:10:08 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Up | BUY | 5 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x5e849f… |
| 05-10 00:08:35 | Sophisticated-Leptocephalus 0x4605…b773 | Down | BUY | 5 | 55¢ | $3 | 0xca32aa… |
| 05-10 00:00:36 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | BUY | 5 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x27c828… |
| 05-10 00:00:36 | Fantastic-Tablet 0x2e85…55a5 | Down | BUY | 5 | 51¢ | $2 | 0xa26048… |
| 05-10 00:00:30 | Fantastic-Tablet 0x2e85…55a5 | Up | BUY | 5 | 51¢ | $2 | 0xf45dc0… |
| 05-10 00:00:29 | Average-Fedelini 0x03ff…5e3a | Down | BUY | 10 | 51¢ | $5 | 0x78ab08… |
| 05-09 23:59:50 | Bare-Centre 0xf31f…3507 | Up | BUY | 10 | 50¢ | $5 | 0x7b4405… |