Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET | Polymarket | Vike

Total volume

$70,349

Trades

6,062

Unique wallets

438

Liquidity

$0

Latest YES mid

40¢

Latest NO mid

60¢

End date

2026-10-17

First seen

2026-10-16

last 10-17 01:30

YES price (mid)

last 60 days, hourly

Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.

YES holders

(anon) +6,360 Illiterate-Counterforce +5,506 (anon) +4,930 Deadly-Champion +3,220 Noisy-Colonisation +2,832 (anon) +2,560 (anon) +1,367 (anon) +1,214

NO holders

All-Peasant-Drug +6,848 Deadly-Champion +2,780 (anon) +2,723 (anon) +2,592 Noisy-Colonisation +2,574 (anon) +1,739 (anon) +1,450 (anon) +1,267

Cohort breakdown

who's buying — by wallet tier SMI: +1.7¢ (top1%: 37% YES on $29.4K vs crowd: 35% YES on $62.6K)

By volume tier

Tier	Wallets	YES buy	NO buy	Net bias
🐋 Whale	110	$16.5K	$22.0K	$5.5K
🐬 Dolphin	111	$4.0K	$10.3K	$6.3K
🐟 Fish	134	$1.1K	$6.9K	$5.9K
🦐 Shrimp	83	$370	$1.5K	$1.1K

By P&L percentile

Tier	Wallets	YES buy	NO buy	Net bias
🎯 Top 1%	115	$10.8K	$18.6K	$7.8K
🏆 Top 5%	79	$1.2K	$5.8K	$4.6K
✅ Top 10%	23	$260	$858	$598
Median	12	$47	$21	+$26
Below median	71	$250	$611	$361
⚠️ Bottom 10%	41	$376	$2.5K	$2.2K
🔻 Bottom 5%	45	$1.2K	$2.6K	$1.4K
💀 Bottom 1%	52	$7.8K	$9.7K	$1.9K

SMI history (last 30d)

daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd

Wallet leaderboard (60) Recent trades

Wallet	Side	Net shares	Cost basis	Volume	Trades	Last activity
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	Down	+6,848	$4,112	$4,112	58	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x90e3…34ad	Up	+6,360	$2,601	$2,601	133	10-17 01:28
Illiterate-Counterforce 0xd1ed…d7cb	Up	+5,506	$2,481	$2,481	90	10-17 01:28
(anonymous) 0x01e8…e002	Up	+4,930	$2,106	$2,106	127	10-17 01:28
Deadly-Champion 0xcfdd…e5da	Up	+3,220	$1,260	$1,260	198	10-17 01:29
Noisy-Colonisation 0xb945…db68	Up	+2,832	$1,139	$1,139	171	10-17 01:29
Deadly-Champion 0xcfdd…e5da	Down	+2,780	$1,636	$1,636	138	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x3800…0dd6	Down	+2,723	$1,841	$1,841	19	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x98b8…5c1b	Down	+2,592	$1,625	$1,625	85	10-17 01:29
Noisy-Colonisation 0xb945…db68	Down	+2,574	$1,553	$1,553	117	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x98b8…5c1b	Up	+2,560	$963	$963	193	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x80c6…b878	Down	+1,739	$1,075	$1,075	13	10-17 01:28
(anonymous) 0xb1d3…c279	Down	+1,450	$1,426	$1,426	16	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e	Up	+1,367	$360	$360	46	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e	Down	+1,267	$879	$879	49	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0xf548…c20e	Up	+1,214	$473	$473	108	10-17 01:28
(anonymous) 0xf548…c20e	Down	+1,214	$706	$706	89	10-17 01:28
(anonymous) 0x8852…c569	Up	+1,023	$335	$335	92	10-17 01:28
Traumatic-Heating 0xdf79…3dcd	Down	+1,008	$584	$584	48	10-17 01:28
Traumatic-Heating 0xdf79…3dcd	Up	+1,002	$430	$430	44	10-17 01:28
Cool-Trip 0x9184…9f9f	Up	+983	$407	$407	28	10-17 01:27
Cool-Trip 0x9184…9f9f	Down	+983	$917	$917	9	10-17 01:29
Leading-Altar 0x86b9…6d67	Down	+878	$535	$535	21	10-17 01:29
Leading-Altar 0x86b9…6d67	Up	+878	$336	$336	35	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x954b…c0e0	Down	+785	$462	$462	17	10-17 01:28
(anonymous) 0x2903…5906	Down	+780	$583	$583	19	10-17 01:29
Demanding-Hippodrome 0xbdaa…fd60	Up	+663	$310	$310	17	10-17 01:27
Demanding-Hippodrome 0xbdaa…fd60	Down	+663	$551	$551	8	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x2903…5906	Up	+660	$228	$228	16	10-17 01:29
Afraid-Regionalism 0xc3ec…e987	Up	+659	$234	$234	25	10-17 01:30
(anonymous) 0x6feb…c082	Down	+636	$630	$630	1	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0xebf1…a7c6	Down	+613	$464	$464	23	10-17 01:23
(anonymous) 0x6ee0…7485	Down	+610	$382	$382	6	10-17 01:28
Vague-Hourglass 0x21f4…691d	Up	+603	$272	$272	45	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x57b8…8274	Down	+600	$479	$479	62	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x57b8…8274	Up	+595	$277	$277	41	10-17 01:28
Descriptive-Spectrograph 0x672c…881b	Down	+575	$290	$290	1	10-17 01:25
(anonymous) 0x7eaf…2c88	Down	+570	$366	$366	6	10-17 01:28
Cautious-Toreador 0xe309…1433	Up	+544	$166	$166	17	10-17 01:24
Cautious-Toreador 0xe309…1433	Down	+540	$302	$302	26	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x4281…1a5a	Down	+524	$505	$505	10	10-17 01:29
Old-Torso 0x3179…af7c	Up	+516	$266	$266	2	10-17 01:25
(anonymous) 0x41e2…a354	Down	+515	$279	$279	19	10-17 01:27
(anonymous) 0x1404…de47	Up	+503	$161	$161	21	10-17 01:28
Illiterate-Counterforce 0xd1ed…d7cb	Down	+501	$222	$222	5	10-17 01:25
(anonymous) 0xb165…46d2	Up	+500	$22	$22	2	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x3800…0dd6	Up	+500	$204	$204	3	10-17 01:28
(anonymous) 0x8408…2af4	Up	+475	$190	$190	26	10-17 01:28
(anonymous) 0x6bef…51ca	Down	+461	$456	$456	10	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x41e2…a354	Up	+458	$208	$208	19	10-17 01:27
(anonymous) 0x1404…de47	Down	+441	$316	$316	20	10-17 01:28
Vague-Hourglass 0x21f4…691d	Down	+421	$379	$379	13	10-17 01:29
(anonymous) 0x10d5…5388	Up	+413	$162	$167	25	10-17 01:28
(anonymous) 0xdced…92c6	Down	+412	$362	$362	17	10-17 01:29
Live-Ape 0x95e8…6fa3	Down	+404	$150	$150	12	10-17 01:28
(anonymous) 0x90ae…bb56	Up	+400	$4	$4	11	10-17 01:29
Growling-Cause 0x4805…4739	Up	+343	$143	$143	22	10-17 01:25
Stained-Meaning 0x6972…ebcc	Up	+339	$127	$127	44	10-17 01:29
Angelic-Sphynx 0xf79d…9fe9	Up	+323	$130	$130	43	10-17 01:29
Best-Million 0x81c9…94cd	Up	+321	$126	$126	37	10-17 01:29