Realized P&L
+$77
Unrealized P&L
-$26
Hit rate
81.2%
Resolved
253
Trades
493
lifetime
Volume
$2.39K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$91
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-17
last 10-06 04:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 102 days
Categories
Other
47% 72% +$45
Politics
28% 69% +$37
Tech
11% 67% -$12
Sports
8% 50% +$27
Crypto
6% 66% -$20
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +547 $12 3¢ $18 +$6 09-06 16:55
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +14 $10 96¢ $14 +$4 06-16 04:55
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? No -12 -$10 95¢ $-12 -$2 05-13 04:58
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic -7 -$6 96¢ $-7 -$1 07-09 20:38
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes -6 -$5 80¢ $-5 +$0 09-12 07:25
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +6 $5 76¢ $4 -$1 09-29 04:38
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +8 $5 56¢ $4 -$1 09-06 16:55
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes -8 -$5 50¢ $-4 +$1 05-20 23:07
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes -6 -$5 68¢ $-4 +$1 08-17 15:15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $10 16¢ $3 -$7 07-22 22:24
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +64 $23 4¢ $2 -$21 09-15 18:24
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -2 -$2 96¢ $-2 $0 05-16 08:33
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes +4 $2 46¢ $2 $0 05-10 09:41
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes -19 -$12 8¢ $-2 +$10 06-25 19:51
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +183 $11 1¢ $1 -$10 05-24 14:02
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Yes +8 $5 12¢ $1 -$4 05-20 09:58
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -20 -$15 5¢ $-1 +$14 04-29 07:05
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +5 $1 16¢ $1 $0 09-14 04:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +6 $5 12¢ $1 -$4 05-13 05:00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +6 $5 9¢ $0 -$4 09-29 04:42
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +23 $2 2¢ $0 -$2 05-13 13:32
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes +26 $5 2¢ $0 -$5 06-16 04:56
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Yes +10 $1 4¢ $0 -$1 05-21 11:25
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes +2 $1 16¢ $0 -$1 09-29 04:37
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes +2 $1 16¢ $0 -$1 05-03 19:56
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? Yes +5 $1 5¢ $0 -$1 05-13 04:59