Realized P&L
-$16
Unrealized P&L
+$3
Hit rate
68.5%
Resolved
12
Trades
1,406
lifetime
Volume
$88.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$63
Open exposure
$901
28 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 07-01 00:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
70% 75% $-6
Other
19% 50% $-9
Crypto
9%
Tech
2%
Sports
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
72 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No -150 $-148 100¢ $-150 $-2 06-05 05:46
Netanyahu out by June 30? No -100 $-96 100¢ $-100 $-4 05-29 03:11
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No -100 $-100 100¢ $-100 $-0 06-26 00:33
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? No -100 $-100 99¢ $-99 +$0 06-26 08:31
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026? No -80 $-66 84¢ $-67 $-0 06-29 00:27
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +50 $45 93¢ $47 +$2 06-09 19:50
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +50 $42 89¢ $44 +$3 06-13 02:38
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No -38 $-35 99¢ $-38 $-3 06-14 10:10
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +33 $30 92¢ $30 +$0 06-29 22:42
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +40 $24 75¢ $30 +$6 06-20 06:15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No -30 $-27 100¢ $-30 $-3 06-07 06:10
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? No -23 $-22 100¢ $-23 $-1 06-12 02:04
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -25 $-19 86¢ $-22 $-2 06-14 02:52
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? No +20 $18 90¢ $18 $-0 06-30 04:47
Will Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes -18 $-31 99¢ $-18 +$14 06-27 00:07
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No +20 $14 82¢ $16 +$2 06-17 10:18
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No -16 $-16 100¢ $-16 $-0 06-29 00:12
Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No +14 $10 76¢ $11 +$0 06-28 09:28
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No -10 $-9 99¢ $-10 $-1 06-04 16:50
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No -12 $-10 81¢ $-10 +$0 05-29 08:29
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No +5 $3 82¢ $4 +$1 06-26 17:10
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +8 $4 50¢ $4 $-0 06-14 21:23
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $6 20¢ $4 $-2 06-15 10:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +20 $7 20¢ $4 $-3 06-14 09:26
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes +38 $5 10¢ $4 $-1 06-14 03:55
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +10 $3 32¢ $3 $-0 06-29 09:31
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes +70 $1 $0 $-1 05-28 06:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +10 $2 $0 $-2 06-14 02:42